Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
856 FXUS61 KRNK 131757 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 157 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system heads off the mid-Atlantic coast today, then out to sea Tuesday. A dry front then pushes across midweek with cooler temperatures behind it. High pressure controls our weather for the late week into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds through Tuesday, with drier weather and warmer than normal temperatures. 2. Some fog possible tonight into early tomorrow morning. Two surface low pressure systems are easily observed in visible satellite imagery today, one off the coast of the Carolinas, and the other off the Delmarva coast. These two systems kept drizzle and areas of light rain in parts of eastern VA and NC through this morning, but dry air from increasingly northerly flow aloft, and building high pressure at the surface, has effectively cut off any lingering drizzle, though plenty of residual moisture has kept low clouds over the region. This morning`s sounding at RNK, especially when compared to the sounding from 24 hours ago, shows the expansion of the dry layer above 700mb, and PWATs have decreased to under 0.80" since yesterday evening. By late tonight, the two upper lows will phase, and eventually pull farther into the Atlantic, allowing more dry air to work its way into the region. Ridging at 500mb builds over the south central US, and expands eastward into the Mid Atlantic through Tuesday, as a strong trough deepens over the western US. The proximity of the low tomorrow offshore of VA and NC will keep some moisture in the region, and so will not see a significant drop in dewpoints and humidity until after Tuesday, after a midweek frontal passage. Therefore, though today and tomorrow will feature no rain, low temperatures tonight will still be elevated, in the mid to upper 40s west of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 50s east. Highs temperatures tomorrow will be warmer than seasonal norms under increasing sunshine, in the mid to upper 70s in the Piedmont and foothills, and mid 60s to low 70s in the mountains. With the moisture and clearing skies overnight, will likely see patchy fog, mostly confined in the valleys for a few hours tomorrow morning, but this should dissipate fairly soon after sunrise, with mixing from solar heating and increasing winds. Gusty winds will wane slightly by the evening hours, though stronger 850mb winds will keep the ridges mixed overnight, and will also help keep the potential for fog low over the mountains. Winds become gusty again Tuesday, with the tightening pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming high, so gusts between 20 to 30 mph are possible by the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 PM Monday... Key Messages: 1) Cold front to arrive later this week and briefly bring cooler and drier air. 2) Frost likely Friday morning for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. Wednesday will be the warmest part of this section of the forecast before a cold front arrives to bring in cooler and drier air. High temperatures will likely be in the 70s regionwide, reaching in the upper 70s east of the Blue Ridge. When the front pushes through, it will increase wind speeds briefly with gusts between 10-15 mph along and west of the Blue Ridge. Some areas at the ridgetops could see gusts up to 20 mph. Dew points will downtrend into the 30s and 40s by Thursday and air temperatures will start to decline as well with highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s. Friday morning will be the coldest part of the week with lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s. The center of a surface high pressure system will be just close enough to keep winds calm and skies clear to support frost development, particularly along and west of the Blue Ridge. While clear skies and low temperatures are likely, the specifics on the wind speed will be the main determining factor of the spatial extent of frost across the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT MONDAY... Key Message: 1) Frontal system to potentially bring showers early next week. All eyes are on a frontal system that is likely to impact most of the United States later this week and the Mid-Atlantic by early next week. Southwesterly winds will refill the atmosphere with moisture and raise dew points back into the 50s for most of the region by Sunday. Model guidance is confident there will be precipitation with this system, though it is far too early to know how much rain could be expected. Likewise, while some storm parameters such as wind shear look to be favorable, it is also too early to know of any severe weather potential. Machine Learning models have picked up a small signal of a severe weather risk for the Mid-Atlantic and the South in general but confidence is pretty low and the Storm Prediction Center currently does not have any outlooks for our area. The severe potential may rest on how unstable it could get and will likely be dependent on weather the storm system arrives during the day or night. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Monday... The region has mostly returned to VFR conditions, after SCT to BKN low clouds with ceilings around 2 to 3kft persisted through much of the morning and early afternoon. Afternoon cumulus will continue through evening hours, and a brief period of clearing skies is anticipated overnight, which will allow for some patchy fog to develop mainly in the valleys west of the Blue Ridge, impacting KLWB, KBLF, and KBCB. Low stratus will also push southward, reaching those same western terminals during the early morning hours of Tuesday, so sub-VFR conditions are likely in those areas until 14Z or so Tuesday. Low clouds return to the eastern terminals of KDAN and KLYH Tuesday morning as well, and so skies there again become BKN at least, possibly OVC, and MVFR ceilings are possible through about 16Z Tuesday. Winds will remain mostly northerly through the current TAF period, and gusts between 15 to 20 knots are likely this afternoon. Winds will slacken somewhat overnight for most locations, except along the ridgetops where they look to remain over 10 knots, but become gusty again areawide Tuesday afternoon, between 20 to 25 knots. Forecast confidence is moderate, but low on specific visibilities and ceilings. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Flight conditions improve for all area terminals along and east of the Blue Ridge after Tuesday afternoon, low clouds holding on longer for the west. For the remainder of the week, VFR conditions are expected across the area, outside of patchy morning fog in the river valleys. Gusty winds continue through the middle of the week, mainly north to northwesterly through Friday. Next chance of rain arrives over the weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP NEAR TERM...AS SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...AS