924
FXUS61 KRNK 091910
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
210 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the mountains during this
afternoon and evening, bringing additional showers. Behind the
front, temperatures will turn drastically colder for tonight and
Monday in addition to blustery northwest winds and mountain
snow showers. Winter weather advisories for accumulating snow
have been issued from the mountains of North Carolina, northward
into the mountains of far western Virginia and West Virginia.
Winter storm warnings have been issued for some of the highest
elevations where snowfall through Monday night could total 3 to
8 inches. Snow flurries may drift across the Blue Ridge and
into the Piedmont Monday and Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) A frigid airmass arrives tonight with a transition to mountain
snow showers through Monday night.

While a few pesky showers associated with a prefrontal weak
disturbance are tracking across the northern and western parts
of the area this afternoon, the main focus remains with a strong
cold front set to swing across the forecast area this evening
and the increased potential for mountain snow showers through
Monday night.

Thermal profiles look to plummet with the coldest airmass of the
season ushering in. At first the moisture column should remain
fairly shallow generally remaining below 5 kft through tonight
so any accumulations of snow showers tonight look to remain
fairly light confined to the upslope zone of the western
mountains. The main period of possible impacts will be later
Monday through Monday night as a lobe of the strong upper
closed low breaks away and digs southward allowing for robust
forcing with the vort max and a deeper layer of moisture
supportive of decent dendritic growth. SLRs are quite impressive
as well with some parts of the west possibly getting close to
20:1. There might be a lull of snow activity near the middle
part of Monday night behind the main trough axis before a
secondary push of moisture advects in from the NW.

WPC snow amounts came in a bit higher mainly for some of
the higher ridges but all in all amounts look supportive of the
current Winter Weather Advisory with a slight expansion into
Bland Co. generally getting 1-3 inches and possibly higher
locally near some peaks, then continuing the Winter Storm
Warning for Western Greenbrier but increasing the range of 3-8
inches. The strong gradient winds and gusts up to 35-45 mph aren`t
going to help with conditions and the frigid temps as resultant
wind chills dive down into the single digits for much of the
mountains Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EST Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Bulk of the heaviest snow for the upcoming winter event to occur
late Monday afternoon through Monday evening.
2. Very low wind chills Monday night into Tuesday morning.
3. Drier with moderating temperatures Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.

A look a the 9 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights
shows for Monday night a deep upper low is expected to be centered
over NY/PA, and be part of a broader longwave trough pattern which
covers all of eastern CONUS. To the west, upper level ridging is
expected over the SW US. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the axis of the
longwave trough heads northeast across New England and into
southeast Canada.  A shortwave trough within the broader longwave
pattern is expected to be heading southeast through the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Ridging over the SW US expands north to cover
much of western CONUS. A trough deepens over the Gulf of Alaska. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, the Upper Mississippi Valley shortwave
trough is expected to progress across our region and be over New
England by the evening hours. The trough-ridge pairing over western
CONUS makes a little progress eastward.

At the surface for Monday night, low pressure will be situated near
Maine, with an associated cold front extending south into the
western Atlantic. Behind this front, a broad area of high pressure
will be centered near the Arklatex. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, the
center of the high shifts to over the SE US, but maintaining
influence from TX to the Carolinas. A cold front will be progressing
southeast across parts of the Upper Mississippi River Valley and
into the Central Plains states. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the
cold front progresses quickly across the Great Lakes region and the
Ohio Valley. High pressure remains centered over the SE US, but its
northern extent is squelched a bit by the passing cold front.

A look at the 9 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Monday night, values across the region
are expected to range from -9C to -8C. Values of this magnitude fall
within the 0.5 to 2.5 percentile of the 30-year CFSR climatology. On
Tuesday, values increase during the day to -2C to 0C, ne-sw, by the
evening. For Tuesday night into Wednesday, values continue trending
upward, reaching +2C to +4C, ne-sw, by the evening hours.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. The axis
of the upper trough passing over the region in conjunction with a
prevailing gusty northwest flow, will enhance snow production across
the mountains. During the time of our valid Winter Storm Warning and
Winter Weather Advisory, the late Monday afternoon and Monday
evening period when we are expecting the bulk of the snow to fall.
As we progress through the night, and into Tuesday, we lose two
features which will decrease and finally conclude the measurable
snow. First after midnight the influence of dynamics associated with
the upper trough move east. Concurrently, low level winds start to
back, the start of a reduction in upslope snow production. During
the day Tuesday, winds continue to back, such that little in the way
of additional snow is expected in the morning. By the afternoon,
southwest flow warm air advection is expected. Despite the change in
direction, winds are expected to remain gusty thanks to a tight
pressure gradient between building high pressure and the strong low
pressure to our northeast.

With very gusty winds and what are expected to be well below normal
temperatures, very low wind chills are expected Monday night into
Tuesday morning, including the time of the morning commute. Single
digits to near 10 degrees will be common across the mountains. Some
of the higher peaks and ridges will be around 0F, if not a couple of
degrees below zero.

As we progress from Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
temperatures are expected to gradually moderate. The cold front
passing to our north on Wednesday into Wednesday night is expected
to be far enough away as to not contribute any precipitation to the
area.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1215 PM EST Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Dry with moderating temperatures through Saturday.
2. Potential for showers on Sunday.
3. Gusty through much of this time period.

A look a the 9 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Heights
shows for Thursday/Thursday night a longwave trough pattern remains
parked over southeast Canada. Upper level ridging moves into central
CONUS with a trough over western CONUS. For Friday/Friday night, a
trough/low remains over far southeast Canada. The ridge moves to
over the Great Lakes south to the Gulf Coast states. The trough over
western CONUS moves east just slightly. For Saturday/Saturday night,
a upper low remains over southeast Canada. The upper ridge becomes
centered over our region during the evening hours. The trough in the
west moves into central CONUS.  For Sunday, the ridge axis heads
east to over Maine and the western Atlantic. The central CONUS
trough decreases in amplitude as it progresses into the Lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys.

At the surface for Thursday/Thursday night, high pressure over the
SE US builds north into the mid-Atlantic. Low pressure and
associated cold front begins to develop over the lee of the Rockies.
For Friday/Friday night, the center of the high shifts east to the
coast of the Carolinas, while the cold front makes progress eastward
into the Plains States. For Saturday/Saturday night, the surface
high continues its slow progression eastward into the western
Atlantic. The cold front advances into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
For Sunday, the high continues its eastward journey. The cold front
moves into the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

A look at the 9 Nov 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Thursday afternoon around +3C to +5C,
ne-sw, across the area. Values trend upward, reaching +6C to +8C, ne-
sw, by Friday afternoon. For Saturday, the upward trend continues
with afternoon readings around +10C for the entire region. On
Sunday, values dip slightly to around +8C for the area.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. With the
center of a broad region of high pressure progressing east, flow
around this system will allow some component of a westerly wind
across the region through Saturday. With low pressure over southeast
Canada remaining strong, we should maintain at least a modest
pressure gradient across our region during this time period. Gusty
daytime winds should be common each day. Additionally, with
increasing 850mb temperatures, surface temperatures should also
reflect warming trend through this period.

The big question for this portion of the forecast is Sunday,
especially in regards to the timing of an approaching cold front.
Current timing of this feature should provide for some showers on
Sunday. With increased clouds and the potential for showers, Sunday
high temperatures may be cooler than those of Saturday. However, the
opposite may be true for the low temperatures thanks to the clouds
and higher dew point values.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate through
Saturday, then low to moderate for Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Sunday...

Some MVFR cigs initially near the western sites, otherwise VFR
cigs generally 4-6 kft. Some VCSH this afternoon near some
mountain sites, then as much colder air comes in behind a strong
cold front, a transition to snow showers looks to occur near LWB
and BLF tonight and then perhaps a greater chance later Monday
into Monday night. Expecting MVFR cigs also for LWB and BLF
tonight into Monday as well. Winds will be on the increase out
of the west to NW becoming 10-16 kts and gusts 18-26 kts.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Wind gusts will persist through Wednesday and reach up to 25-35
kts at times. Wintry weather is likely for the mountains
through early Tuesday with potential for accumulating snow along
the Appalachian Divide. Flurries may be seen into areas east of
the Blue Ridge Monday afternoon and Monday night.

By the middle of the week, higher pressure moves in and skies
should clear. Above seasonal temperatures return for the end of
the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1230 PM EST Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Enhanced fire danger concerns may return for the latter half of
next week.

After the big cool down on Monday/Tuesday, conditions begin to
moderate in terms of temperatures through the end of the work week.
This will be occurring while we maintain some element of a westerly,
eventually northwesterly, wind which will frequently have daytime
gusts close to 20 to 30 mph in the mountains and 15 mph to 20 mph
across the Piedmont. Friday will be the day with the weakest winds.
Lowering daily minimum RH values, and subsidence in the east, thanks
to the wind orientation, will help for drying of fuels. These same
fuels are the ones which received generally less then one-quarter of
an inch Friday night, and less than one-tenth of an inch last night.
For tonight into Monday are expecting little to no precipitation. We
are still too early for high confidence in an enhanced fire danger
scenario, but with little to no additional precipitation after last
night`s minimal amounts, its potential continues to increase, and we
will continue monitoring.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for VAZ007-009-010-015.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for NCZ001-018.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ042-043.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AB/PM
FIRE WEATHER...DS