505
FXUS61 KRNK 181832
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
132 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will continue to lift north across the region this
evening, as low pressure moves into the Mid-Atlantic. This will
bring most of the area a chance for rain tonight. The front is
forecast to move south of our area Wednesday and allow dry
conditions to briefly be seen. Another storm system is expected
to move into the region by Friday, and bring our next
possibility of seeing rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Key Messages:

1. The possibility of rain continues into tonight, with the highest
   amounts expected to be around the IH-64 corridor.

2. Low relative humidity values may result in an enhanced fire
   danger to (mainly) the North Carolina Piedmont this afternoon.


Key Message 1...

For lack of a better term, precipitation "overperformed" a tad this
morning and moved into northwest parts of our forecast area a little
sooner than expected. This was just north of a warm front, which
extends from roughly the Bluefield area eastward into Southside
Virginia. Broadly speaking, we expect the front to continue moving
northward across the forecast area into this evening, as waves of
low pressure ride along the front. The areal coverage of
precipitation should increase through the evening hours, with
most of the rain falling between 6 p.m. and 2 or 3 a.m. before
ending as a shortwave pushes the front farther south/east.

Probabilistically, the greatest odds of seeing rain - as well
as the highest amounts - should be seen along the IH-64 corridor
into the evening. This makes sense from a meteorological
perspective, as the best mid-level moisture flux convergence,
isentropic upglide (300K theta surface), and lowest condensation
pressure deficits will be found here through the evening. As a
result, the highest "storm total" amounts, probably up to a
quarter inch or so, will likely be seen across this area even
when the front pushing southward/eastward brings additional
forcing from the west. Realistically, most areas along and west
of the Blue Ridge will see between 0.1 and 0.2 in. before the
rain ends, with amounts closer to 0.1 in. anticipated east of
the Blue Ridge.

Key Message 2...

A dry airmass remains in place across the Southside and into the
North Carolina Piedmont this afternoon, with afternoon relative
humidity values expected to range between 20 and 30 percent. This
will result in a continued enhanced risk of fire danger, mainly
across the North Carolina Piedmont counties, even with lower wind
speeds. Moisture should increase tonight and lower the fire risk
across this area as a warm front lifts northward. But even after the
front sags southward of the area by tomorrow morning and we see some
weak wedging set in, there shouldn`t be a significant push of dry
air through mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Chances of rain appear most favorable during Friday and Friday
night.

2) Temperatures should stay notably above normal for this time of
year.

Lingering moisture could offer a slight chance of rain showers
across southeast West Virginia on Wednesday night. Drier air should
arrive by Thursday as high pressure passes to the north. Meanwhile,
a low pressure system will organize across the central Plains. The
warm front from this system should approach the Appalachian
Mountains by early Friday. A prevailing southwest breeze should
provide warm air advection to push temperatures above normal on
Friday with highs mostly in the 60s. Chances of rain will steadily
increase during Friday along and west of the Blue Ridge, but the
rain should spread eastward into the Piedmont by Friday night as the
aforementioned low pressure system enters the Ohio River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Slightly cooler air will follow after a frontal passage during
Saturday.

2) Rain chances should taper by Sunday as drier weather returns for
early next week.

A cold front will enter the Appalachian Mountains during Saturday to
continue the chances of rain. As this rain tapers to showers by
Saturday night, cooler air should follow in the wake of the
departing cold front. However, this air mass originates mainly from
the Pacific Ocean and will only drop temperatures back to near
seasonable values for this time of year. With high pressure in
control during Sunday and Monday, dry weather should occur to start
the new week. By Tuesday, high pressure will drift offshore, which
should allow a low pressure system to develop across the lower
Mississippi River Valley. Moisture from this system may reach the
mountains later on Tuesday to bring a low chance of rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

With the exception of terminals closer to the IH-66 corridor, where
some RA and flight restrictions may be seen, flight categories
should remain VFR across most areas through the rest of the
afternoon. Expect more widespread restrictions to develop after
19/0000 UTC, as CIGs lower and the areal coverage of RA increases.
The greatest odds of MVFR or lower CIGs will be at terminals W of
the Blue Ridge (especially in SE WV), where brief reductions to IFR
may be seen. RA will likely continue through 19/0800-0900 UTC,
before moving S/E of much of the region.

LLWS could potentially be impactful overnight at many terminals, as
a stronger low-level jet traverses the region. Terminals in the
mountains have the greatest probabilities of experiencing this
hazard.

OUTLOOK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday-Thursday: Restrictions possible N/W of a KTNB-KLYH line,
with VFR likely elsewhere.

Thursday night-Saturday: Another storm system brings possibility of
RA to the region. Flight restrictions will be possible, especially W
of the Blue Ridge.

Saturday night-Sunday: Improving flight categories expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...

Increased fire danger continues across the North Carolina Piedmont
and Foothills as low RH values around 20-25% will continue through
the rest of the afternoon. Dewpoints are in the low 20s and winds
are around 5-10 mph, gusting to near 15 mph at times. While this
wind is not as high as yesterday, any outdoor fires could quickly
spread as fuels on the ground remain dry, along with downed leaves.

For Virginia, the Piedmont will see similar conditions, but
dewpoints are marginally higher with more cloud cover, which will
lessen any fire danger. Areas north of I-64 have already seen
rainfall.

Most of the area will see a wetting rainfall tonight, though the
Piedmont areas will see light amounts under a tenth of an inch.
Nonetheless, the fire danger ends this evening post-sunset as RH
values rise.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF/WP
NEAR TERM...DB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...JCB