499
FXUS61 KRNK 211121
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
621 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves north today. This will bring showers to most
of the area, though best chances will be west of the Blue
Ridge. Showers linger through midday Saturday, then high
pressure builds back in through the rest of the weekend and into
early next week, keeping the weather quiet. Another larger
system moves through the area during the middle of next week,
with a big cooldown expected for Thanksgiving and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EST Friday...

Key Message:

1. Needed rainfall through tonight, best chances in the
mountains.


A warm front lifts north into the area today and into northern
Virginia tonight as a cold front tracks into the mountains late
tonight. Waves of upper level energy and surface low pressure
areas will keep our area in a pattern of showers through
tonight. Best lift/upper support stay across the central
Appalachians, into the Shenandoah Valley where probabilities for
measurable rainfall will be higher.

Rainfall amounts will range from a half inch or more across the
western slopes of WV into far SW VA to a quarter inch or less in
portions of the Piedmont and Foothills. This is much needed
rainfall, though not a lot, as the areas from the Greenbrier
Valley of WV southeast through the Roanoke area into the VA/NC
Piedmont are in moderate drought.

Despite the rain and clouds, temperatures will be above normal
with most in the 60s today, with some 50s in the mountains.

Lows tonight will run 15 to as much as 25 degrees above normal,
which will actually be closer to what our normal highs should be
for late November. Most will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain continues into Saturday morning, but tapers off through the
day. Dry weather for Sunday and Monday.

2. Temperatures still above normal, but a few degrees cooler Sunday
and Monday.

Rain will likely be ongoing at the start of this forecast period,
Saturday morning, as a cold front continues to move across the area.
However, high pressure quickly follows the front, and rain showers
will taper off by Saturday afternoon/evening. High pressure will
remain in control of the weather through Sunday and Monday, but
moves offshore by late Monday into Tuesday, ahead of the next
approaching frontal system. This low pressure system develops in the
south central US, and will track northeastward, bringing another
cold front towards the Mid Atlantic early Tuesday. Southwesterly
flow ahead of the front and south/southeasterly return flow from the
surface high will bring a surge of moisture from both the Gulf and
the Atlantic, and bring more widespread rain chances for the midweek
time frame. Although the bulk of the rain will come during the long
term forecast period, rain showers may begin as early as Monday
night.

Despite a cooler northwesterly flow west of the Blue Ridge and
northerly flow in the east developing in the later half of the day
with high pressure building in, temperatures will remain above
normal for Saturday, mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s in the
mountains, low 70s in the Piedmont. Cooler temperatures are expected
Sunday and Monday, low to mid 50s for the mountains and low 60s in
the Piedmont. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s, but warmer Monday
night/Tuesday morning, as dew points creep up and cloud cover
increases.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain likely Tuesday, lingers into Wednesday.

2. Dry but colder and windy weather for Thanksgiving. Below normal
temperatures expected.

As mentioned in the short term forecast discussion, a low pressure
system will reach the area by the middle of the week, bringing
increased rain chances Tuesday morning through Wednesday. Initially,
a warm front will lift through the area Tuesday, with the cold front
following behind late Tuesday/Wednesday. Rain coverage looks to be
more widespread on Tuesday, then becoming more scattered in nature
Wednesday, and gradually lessening by Wednesday night. There is a
slight chance for thunder on Wednesday, with up to 300 to 400 J/kg
of MUCAPE. However, this also depends on the timing of the front,
and thus whether that instability can be tapped into.

By Thursday morning, the front will be to the east of the area as
the main surface low pulls north towards the Great Lakes region,
surface high pressure builds back in, and broad 500mb troughing
develops over the eastern US. This will bring a real drop in
temperatures, just in time for Thanksgiving, with colder
northeasterly flow at the surface and aloft. High temperatures
Thursday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Wednesday, going from
the mid to upper 50s in the west and upper 60s to near 70s in the
east, to 40s in the west and 50s in the east. With the strong cold
air advection and pressure rises, Thursday looks to also be breezy,
with wind gusts in the 15 to 20 mph range, especially along and west
of the Blue Ridge. Low temperatures will also drop considerably,
falling to the low to mid 30s for the west, low 40s in the east
Thursday morning, to teens and 20s in the west and 30s in the east
by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 618 AM EST Friday...

VFR to start the terminals will transition to sub-VFR, with IFR
likely at times in the mountain terminals (BLF/LWB) by 12-16z
with light rain. DAN also looks to sink to 1000 ft or less on
ceilings ahead of the warm front.

Not going to rain the entire time but frontal boundary allows
for ceilings to stay low.

As the afternoon progresses cigs may rise back to MVFR/VFR. but
will keep most TAF sites sub- VFR through this period.

Confidence is moderate to high for sub-VFR cigs, low to moderate
on vsbys and rain chances.

.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Showers will stick around through Saturday morning, with some
sub-VFR conditions lingering through midday. High pressure then
builds in, with all terminals back to VFR by Saturday mid-
afternoon. Dry and quiet weather continues through late Tuesday,
when the next large system moves into the area, bringing likely
sub-VFR conditions once again.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...VFJ/WP