182
FXUS61 KRNK 191816
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
116 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will be draped from North Carolina, west to
the Tennessee Valley tonight. Our next storm system is expected
to move into the region by Friday bringing our next chance of
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Low clouds roll in tonight and hang around into Thursday.

2) Cooler temperatures tomorrow, but still above daily normals.

An upper-level disturbance passed over the area this morning
and will push off the Virginia coast this afternoon. Behind this
system, a stubborn blanket of low clouds will remain,
particularly across the mountains and more so along the western
slopes of Southeast West Virginia.

Tonight, a weak high pressure system will move across the
Northeast states, sending a shallow dome of cool air southward
into North Carolina. Warm, moist air will be forced to overrun
this cooler surface air, blanketing the entire region with
clouds overnight. These thick clouds will act as an insulator,
helping to keep overnight temperatures in the 40s.

As Thursday unfolds, the parent high pressure system over New
England will begin to drift offshore. This will allow the
western edge of the wedge to start eroding across the Mountain
Empire of Southwest Virginia and into the Bluefield area,
letting slightly warmer air filter in. However, the wedge will
remain shallow and entrenched along the Virginia/North Carolina
border. This creates a sharp thermal divide. Areas south of
Highway 460, where the wedge is weakest, have a slight
probability of seeing temperatures warm into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Areas remaining within the wedge should see cooler
high temperatures, ranging between 49F to 56F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) A low pressure system will bring chances of rain for Friday
and Saturday.

2) Temperatures remain above normal for this time of year.

A low pressure system will approach the Appalachian Mountains
on Thursday night to provide increasing cloudiness. Rain chances
should begin before sunrise west of the Blue Ridge and spread
eastward towards the Piedmont during Friday morning. The
heaviest rainfall appears to stay across southeast West Virginia
where a half an inch to one whole inch may fall during Friday
and Saturday. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts could range from a
tenth of an inch across the North Carolina Piedmont to about a
third of an inch along the New and Roanoke river valleys.

A prevailing southwest breeze should provide warm air advection
to push temperatures above normal on Friday with highs mostly
in the 60s. As the cold front from the aforementioned low
pressure system arrives on Saturday, the flow will turn towards
the northwest. High temperatures by Saturday afternoon may only
reach the 50s in the mountains, but the downslope flow may boost
highs towards the 60s and perhaps even the lower 70s across
southside Virginia and the North Carolina Piedmont. Any
lingering rain should taper to upslope showers in the mountains
towards Saturday evening before completely fading during
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure should bring drier weather for Sunday and
Monday.

2) Chances of rain will return during Tuesday and Wednesday as
another low pressure system arrives.

Cooler air should follow in the wake of the departing cold
front by Sunday, but this air mass originates from the Pacific
Ocean and will only drop temperatures back to near seasonable
values. With high pressure crossing the Appalachian Mountains
during Sunday and Monday, drier weather should take place to
start the new week. Temperatures could rebound back above normal
on Monday. By Tuesday, high pressure will drift offshore, and
another low pressure system should arrive to provide the next
opportunity for rain. The rain may diminish on Wednesday with
the exception of lingering upslope showers in the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Wednesday...

Visibilities have recovered to P6SM this afternoon, but
ceilings across the mountains remain IFR to MVFR. With a light
west wind, clouds are thickest along western slopes. By this
evening ceilings should lift to VFR for most mountain sites with
the exception being KBLF.

A wedge of cooler air will move south across the area tonight.
Warm moist air is expect to glide over this wedge, creating a
blanket of IFR-MVFR clouds across the area overnight into
Thursday morning.

West winds will remain light into this evening then veer to the
northeast overnight into Thursday.

.Extended Aviation Outlook...

The low clouds should begin to lift by late Thursday morning,
not become VFR until mid afternoon.

Sub-VFR conditions return by Friday with the next chance of
rain which is likely to linger into Saturday, though cigs may
lift during the day Saturday. Sunday and Monday looks to be dry
with VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...RCS