806
FXUS61 KRNK 201116
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
616 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will keep us dry until late Thursday night
into Friday, when the next storm system is expected to move into
the region. High pressure follows this for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Clouds give way to some sunshine by this afternoon.

2) Rain moves in late tonight.

Weak high pressure wedging southward into the Piedmont and an
inverted trough across the southern Appalachians is allowing for
a cloudy morning for the area, with lower clouds across the
mountains, and even some fog on the ridges as ceilings lower.

The high shifts east later today and surface/low level winds
turn southwest, so should see some clearing, especially east of
the mountains. This will give us highs close to normal with mid
50s to lower 60s for most.

Tonight, warm front starts to work northward from the TN Valley.
Clouds increasing again and rain should start to move into the
mountains of WV/far SW VA after midnight, with better lift and
upper support tracking across the Ohio Valley into the central
Appalachians. By dawn Friday best rain chances will be in WV
east to the I-81 corridor, with lower chances across the NC
Piedmont. Rainfall amounts will mainly be under a quarter inch.
Cloud cover and warm advection will keep lows on the mild side,
about 10-15 degrees above normal with 40s for most, and some
lower 50s across the Mountain Empire and NC foothills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1220 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Rain Friday through Saturday afternoon, highest amounts in SE WV,
especially western Greenbrier County.

2. Above normal temperatures through the period, but slightly cooler
by Sunday.

A low pressure system will be moving from the south central Plains
towards the TN Valley by Friday morning, with a warm front lifting
north into the Mid Atlantic and cold front trailing close behind.
Rain may begin as early as Thursday night, but will reach the rest
of the forecast area by midday Friday. Rain will linger through
Friday night and into Saturday, as the front stalls in the vicinity
of OH/KY/WV/VA, but will gradually weaken with time, as the upper
support looks to become displaced from the surface front. Through
Saturday morning, the highest probabilities, over 50%, of 24 hour
rainfall accumulations of at least 0.75" are in western Greenbrier
County, WV. Elsewhere, probabilities decrease sharply, with the
New River and Roanoke Valleys more likely to see around a
quarter inch of rain, and the Piedmont less than that. High
pressure follows behind the front, arriving in the area Saturday
night, and the 500mb flow becomes more northwesterly. This will
prompt a return of dry weather to end the weekend, and a slight
cool down in temperatures.

The trend of above normal temperatures continues through the
weekend, with areas east of the Piedmont seeing highs in the upper
60s to around 70 Friday and Saturday, though this may be tempered a
few degrees by cloud cover on Friday. Northwest, downsloping winds
could push temperatures above 70 degrees for portions of the NC
Piedmont Saturday. Sunday will be in the mid to upper 50s in the
west, and low 60s in the east during the afternoon. Sunday morning,
areas west of the Blue Ridge will see lows back in the 30s, and near
freezing for some of the typical cold spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Dry for most of Monday, but rain chances return late, and
continue through Tuesday.

2. Still above normal temperatures through the period.

3. Looking ahead, much cooler temperatures look possible for after
Thanksgiving.

The work week will start off dry for most, as high pressure remains
settled in over the area through Monday, and a 500mb over the
southeastern US will build into the Mid Atlantic, keeping warmer
than normal temperatures in the forecast. An upper low develops over
the southwest by Monday, and progress into the central US through
the day, becoming more of an open wave as it does so. The associated
surface frontal system strengthens as it tracks east, bringing the
front through the area in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, though
exact timing is still uncertain given the larger spread in model
guidance. Rain is likely for much of the area during the midweek, as
southwesterly flow ahead of the front and southeasterly flow from
the departing surface high tap into moisture from the Gulf and the
Atlantic, respectively. This gives better probabilities for more of
the area to see at least a quarter of an inch of rain through
Wednesday, ranging from 60% in the west to 40% in the east per the
NBM. Once that front exits the area, will see high pressure pushing
in from the west, and a large 500mb trough developing over the
eastern US.

Temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms for Monday and
Tuesday, highs in the 50s in the west and 60s in the east. Wednesday
will be warmer, as highs in the Piedmont bump up into the upper 60s
to near 70. Lows will be in the 40s areawide each morning, but will
start to see cooler air arrive Wednesday night. Though outside this
forecast period, seeing increasing probabilities for below normal
temperatures after Thanksgiving, as the overall synoptic pattern
starts to change.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 615 AM EST Thursday...

Expect MVFR to IFR cigs for most terminals this morning, with
DAN staying VFR. Lowest cigs will be at BLF, with IFR fog at
times.

Once west-southwest winds increase after 15z, should see
improvements to VFR for all sites in the 15-18z time frame. A
few gusts to 20kts possible in the mountains.

Expect lower cigs to arrive again late tonight in the mountains
with light rain making it to BLF/LWB/BCB before 12z, with
potential for 3-5sm vsbys.


.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Sub-VFR conditions to persist through Saturday mainly
along/west of the Blue Ridge with rain chances increasing.
Sunday into Monday should be mainly VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...WP