773
FXUS61 KRNK 210537
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1237 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves north into our area tonight into Friday, bringing
showers to most of the area, though best chances will be west of the
Blue Ridge. Showers linger through midday Saturday, then high
pressure builds back in through the rest of the weekend and into
early next week, keeping the weather quiet. Another larger
system moves through the area during the middle of next week,
with a big cooldown expected for Thanksgiving and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 900 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers move into the area late tonight, bringing light
rainfall amounts.

2. Temperatures increase slightly tomorrow as winds become
southwesterly.

Adjusted chances of rain in the mountains and NC High Country up
a bit this evening to match with areas that are receiving
showers. Light showers had moved into the far western portions
of the CWA before expected, though some of those radar returns
could have been virga. Rain coverage will only increase as we
move into Friday morning and afternoon.

From the previous discussion...

The morning high pressure wedge has finally eroded this
afternoon, as clouds clear out with sunshine for most of the
area. No rain is expected through this evening as the high
pressure remains in control of the Mid-Atlantic Region. Highs
will be in the upper 50s for the northern Piedmont, where more
cloud cover is present. The rest of the area will see more
sunshine, allowing temperatures to rise into the low to mid 60s.
Overnight lows tonight will be mild due to the cloud cover and
southerly wind flow, in the 40s/50s.

Tonight, a warm front across the Tennessee Valley lifts north and
slides east towards our area. This will cause a wave of showers to
move in after midnight. Most of the area should see some rainfall,
though the best coverage and highest totals will be along/west of
the Blue Ridge. Showers become more scattered during the day
tomorrow, despite a cold front moving into the area late in the day.
A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out, but mainly showers are
expected through the end of the period.

Rain totals will be relatively light, around a tenth for the
Piedmont, with up to a quarter inch across the mountains. A few
locally higher amounts could occur up to half of an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) A cold front will bring chances of rain for Friday night before
tapering to showers by Saturday.

2) Drier and cooler weather should follow for Saturday night
through Sunday night.

By Friday night, a cold front should cross the Appalachian Mountains
to bring chances of rain. The most favorable odds for rain will
reside across the higher elevations from Boone to Lewisburg, but
rainfall amounts further to the east still remain unimpressive.
Winds should briefly pick up from the northwest during Saturday in
the wake of the cold front. Any lingering rainfall should taper to
showers before fading by Saturday night. High pressure will bring
cooler and drier conditions through Sunday and Sunday night, but the
air mass originating from the Pacific Ocean should keep temperatures
still near seasonable values for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure should keep conditions dry through Monday, but rain
could return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Thanksgiving Day appears colder with gusty northwest winds after
the passage of a cold front.

Monday should remain dry with high pressure maintaining control.
However, this situation will change on Monday night as high pressure
heads offshore. A cold front should approach from the west by
Tuesday to bring the next chance of rain. As the rain tapers to
showers during Tuesday night into Wednesday, the flow should swing
from the southwest to the northwest and become gusty by Wednesday
night. Lingering upslope rain showers could change to snow showers
across southeast West Virginia as colder air arrives just in time
for the day marked by turkey, stuffing, gravy, and pumpkin pie.
After having several days with highs in the 50s and 60s, it appears
that Thanksgiving Day may only see highs in the 40s and 50s due to
the ongoing cold air advection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1220 AM EST Friday...

VFR to start the terminals will transition to sub-VFR, with IFR
likely at times in the mountain terminals (BLF/LWB) by 10-16z
with light rain. DAN also looks to sink to 1000 ft or less on
ceilings ahead of the warm front.

Not going to rain the entire time but frontal boundary allows
for ceilings to stay low

Cigs will be at their lowest in the morning hours, potentially
IFR/MVFR levels. As Friday progresses, cigs will lift somewhat,
but the available moisture will keep most TAF sites sub-VFR
through this period.

Confidence is moderate to high for sub-VFR cigs, low to moderate
on vsbys and rain chances.

.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Showers will stick around through Saturday morning, with some
sub-VFR conditions lingering through midday. High pressure then
builds in, with all terminals back to VFR by Saturday mid-
afternoon. Dry and quiet weather continues through late Tuesday,
when the next large system moves into the area, bringing likely
sub-VFR conditions once again.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...JCB/VFJ
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...VFJ/WP