157
FXUS66 KSEW 040413
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
813 PM PST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather system will be moving into the area from the
south tomorrow with the trailing cold front lingering over the
area on Wednesday. The stronger systems of the week will be
moving into western Washington Thursday and Friday for
additional rainfall, heightened waves and exacerbated coastal
flooding hazards along the outer coast. Quieter weather is
possible on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The latest forecast remains on track with no updates this
evening. Light rain is moving into western Washington from the
southwest this evening, mainly south of the Puget Sound and will
keep precipitation in the area throughout the overnight hours.
Rain will gradually taper Tuesday afternoon, but warm frontal
rain from the next system will arrive late Tuesday night and
linger through Wednesday. Anticipated rainfall between Tuesday
afternoon through late Wednesday night shows a maximum in the
Olympic basins of 2-3 inches, with three quarters to an inch of
rain throughout the lowlands of Puget Sound.

Winds through this short term forecast period will remain
predominantly northeast to easterly, and strongest along the
Pacific coast and Strait of Juan de Fuca. Winds will begin
ramping up Tuesday night, becoming southerly through Wednesday
as the cold front catches up to the area.

Given the first period of higher than normal tides occurring
this week, coastal flooding is a concern for areas of the outer
coast where a coastal flood advisory has been posted beginning
Wednesday morning, lasting through late Wednesday night. The
tidal gauge at Westport is showing potential for major flooding
at 2.8 feet above the Mean Higher High Water level. La Push and
Neah Bay could also experience coastal flooding on Wednesday.
Water levels in Puget Sound may run a little higher, but for now
are not forecast to see coastal flooding due to the tidal cycle.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Heightened seas and steep waves on Thursday will keep the
chances of coastal flooding impacts in the forecast, despite the
tide levels decreasing from their Wednesday peaks. With strong
winds on the coast expected on Thursday as well, this will be
monitored. More on the marine side of the forecast can be found
in that discussion below.

The atmospheric river moving in on Thursday will focus the
precipitation accumulations in the Olympics and Cascades, with
around an inch of rain expected throughout Puget Sound through
Friday morning. Sensitive rivers in both the Cascade and Olympic
Basins are likely to respond, with more detail on that emerging
in the coming days. Given the nature of the atmospheric river,
snow levels will rise to 5,000 to 7,000 feet, keeping snow
confined to the higher peaks. The associated frontal system will
keep winds breezy along the coast and north interior through
early Friday morning before decreasing.

A quick break in the weather is expected on Saturday as rain
tapers, with only light shower activity in the mountains and
coastal areas. The break appears short lived as the next system
arrives in the area come Sunday into Monday.

21

&&

.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft as a frontal system passes  mainly to the
south. Although many terminals are reporting light and variable
winds at the time of this writing, those reporting a direction
favored easterly with speeds generally 3-7 kts.

Mostly VFR conditions this evening with some pockets of MVFR and
isolated IFR conditions. With plenty of low level moisture to work
with, MVFR or lower cigs expected to develop tonight and remain
widespread into Tuesday morning. VFR conditions are expected to
resume by Tuesday afternoon. Another system arriving Tuesday night
will bring another round of lower cigs with accompanying rainfall.

KSEA...VFR this evening and into tonight but aforementioned low-
level moisture should result in MVFR conditions overnight and
Tuesday morning. Winds largely easterly for the TAF period, although
there looks to be a point in the early to late morning period /14-
18Z/ where winds could shift a little more southerly before
returning to easterly by afternoon. Speeds generally 4-8 kts,
although increasing to 8-12 kts in the early evening as the next
system enters the area.

18

&&

.MARINE...
A broad and deep area of low pressure will move inside of 140W
by Tuesday evening with a strong frontal system will result in
rising winds and seas for most area waters Tuesday through
Wednesday night. A small craft advisory leading to gales for the
coastal waters as well as the Strait of Juan de Fuca and
adjacent waters during this period remains in effect. A series
of additional fronts will follow into the end of the week
maintaining a very active weather pattern with elevated winds
and seas through Thursday.

Seas over the coastal waters will remain 7 to 9 feet before building
back to 15 to 20 feet Wednesday through the rest of the week.

KC/18

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A series of storm systems will move through Western Washington
this week. The system Thursday into Friday will be the wettest
one of the bunch. Flooding is likely on the Skokomish river in
Mason county as early as Thursday night. The remainder of the
rivers will have sharp rises late in the week but only the rivers
flowing off the Central Cascades (Snoqualmie, Skykomish and
Snohomish) are forecast to reach action stage. Most rivers will
crest Friday and then recede over the weekend.

The accumulation of rainfall over the next few days will
increase the landslide risk late this week.

Felton

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     evening for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington
     Coast.

PZ...Gale Warning from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday for
     Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM PST Wednesday
     for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Gale Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 PM PST Wednesday for
     Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
     Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
     Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
     Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
     From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
     60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

&&

$$