


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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466 FXUS63 KSGF 060745 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue today. - 20-60% chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across the area today through Tuesday. Not all locations will see rain, and any amounts will be sparse and generally <0.75". - Slightly cooler temperatures behind a front mid-week with more normal temperatures. 60-80% chance for persistent above normal temperatures in the 80s to return late this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Current water vapor imagery shows two air masses diagonally split in half across the CONUS. Southeast of a southern Arizona to Lake Huron line is dry air and high pressure. Northwest of this line is cooler temperatures and above normal moisture within a longwave trough. At the dividing line, a cold front is forcing a very narrow line of showers and thunderstorms from central KS into the upper peninsula of MI. For the most part, the front has been stalled due to unidirectional flow through the atmosphere. However, positive vorticity advection within the base of the positively-tilted trough should slowly shift the wave eastward today and tomorrow, bringing the cold front south through the region. Above normal temperatures continue today: We have one more day of above normal temperatures before the cold front moves through tonight. As with the past few days, highs are expected to reach the lower to middle 80s with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. 20-60% chances of showers today and Tuesday: Two systems will approach southwest Missouri today and Tuesday. While the upper-level jet stream and surface cold front sag into the area from the northwest, a subtle mid-level disturbance will lift into the region from the south, advecting better moisture with it. This will put the I-44 corridor as the center of the sandwich. Except, the center of the sandwich is the lowest rain chances while the bread is the higher rain chances. What this results in is 15-30% chance for isolated showers across the area, with locally higher chances (30-60%) northwest of our area along the cold front, and in our extreme southeast area (Shannon and Oregon counties) where mid- and upper-level forcing is strongest. A thunderstorm or two is also possible as the better moisture introduces weak instability. The axis of greatest coverage and heaviest rain has shifted east of the area as evident by the HREF, REFS, and SREF QPF swaths. So, expect spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in most areas today. The only area that may see more persistent light rain and dreary conditions would be portions of Shannon and Oregon counties. Many locations will stay dry, but anywhere that sees rain should have have amounts less than 0.50-0.75". Chances for rain are lower Tuesday (15-30% for only portions of the area). This is due to the front dropping south during the overnight hours (little to no instability), then escaping the better synoptic-scale ascent during the day Tuesday. Still, some residual moisture and positive vorticity advection may bring some light showers and sprinkles to the area as the last of the front moves through. With the front over the area Tuesday, highs will range from the lower 70s across west-central MO, to the lower 80s in south- central MO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Near normal temperatures behind the front mid-week: Near normal temperatures are expected for a brief period of time after the cold front passage. Highs in the middle 70s are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Some areas west of Highway 65 may see highs Thursday near 80 F as height rises and southeasterly surface winds kick back in. Lows Tuesday night to Thursday night will range in the middle 40s to middle 50s--a brief glimpse of fall-like nighttime temperatures. Persistent above normal temperatures likely to return late week: Global ensemble members have come into much better agreement with the latest runs as opposed to the forecast 24 hours ago. Unfortunately (or fortunately, however you slice the cake), the trend has been with above normal temperatures quickly returning and being rather persistent. This is due to pretty good agreement in a mid- and upper-level ridge axis building back across the central Plains, allowing compressional warming and south- southeasterly surface winds to bring warm air northward again. There is medium-high confidence in seeing highs in the lower to middle 80s again through the weekend (60-80% chance given that the NBM 25th percentile is around 80 F). Interestingly, the way models portray the progression of the upper-level pattern looks to evolve the same way it did this past weekend with the ridge tilting positively as a longwave trough traverses the Rocky Mountains. This may eventually lead to another cold front next week, but this is out of the forecast range. It`s worth noting that the CPC continues to have us in a 60-80% chance for above normal temperatures through mid- October. As for rain chances, with ridging overhead, weather is expected to be dry again for the most part Wednesday into the weekend. However, as the ridge sets up and a northwesterly jet develops over the region, some warm air advection/isentropic upglide showers and thunderstorms are possible, particularly Thursday night into Friday morning west of Highway 65. NBM chances are currently low (15-20%), but global deterministic models have been persistent on this signal, so would not be surprised to see this chance go up as we draw nearer. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Through the duration of the period, two systems will enter the area from the northwest and southeast, respectively, sandwiching the TAF sites in the middle of each system. As a result, VFR conditions are likely (>75% chance) for most of the period with increasing low cloud cover and 3-8 kt southeasterly winds. The main uncertainty is the chance for rain at each TAF site. There will most likely be small rain showers in the area after 18Z, but the coverage is in large question. At the moment, SGF and BBG have the best chance of seeing a shower impact the sites between 19-01Z (25-35% chance), though showers are still possible outside of this timeframe (<15% chance). Any shower may bring visibilities and cigs down to MVFR. Toward the end of the period, low cigs are forecast to slowly enter BBG from the southeast. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Price