


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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958 FXUS63 KSGF 152254 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 554 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-average temperatures will occur across the area for the remainder of the work week. - Thunderstorm chances return late Friday night into Saturday night. There is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. - More seasonable temperatures to begin next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The persistent upper level ridge and surface high pressure remained over the Ozarks region today with mostly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures again above average for this time of year in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With the ridge forecast to remain over the region through Thursday night, little in the way of forecast changes are expected through then. Winds will be generally light with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the middle 50s to around 60 degrees. By Thursday night, the ridge is expected to begin shifting east, This will allow the surface pressure gradient to begin to tighten and produce a bit more breezy conditions across the area from west to east. Winds may gust to around 15-20mph at times Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The upper ridge will continue to move east through the day Friday as an upper level low slides to the northeast into the northern plains. As the low moves east, energy rounding the base of the trough will make its way into the plains. The warmer air mass, currently over the region, will remain in place with highs once again warming into the lower to middle 80s with the Ozarks now on the western edge of the ridge Friday. South to southwesterly wind gusts around 15 to 25 mph will occur at times on Friday ahead of the approaching system. The upper low will move into central Canada by Friday afternoon with the trailing upper trough remaining over the central plains and southwest into the Four Corners region. Increasing southwesterly flow will allow moisture to make its way into the plains and the Ozarks through the day Friday with a cold front making its way into eastern Kansas after dark Friday evening. There may be a few isolated pre-frontal showers for areas west of I-49 before midnight Friday but the main rain chances are expected to hold off until early Saturday morning. There are still some questions on timing and strength of the front moving through the Ozarks Saturday morning through Saturday night. Synoptic and longer lead CAMS are coming into better agreement with the potential for showers and storms, some strong to severe, impacting the region. As the trough moves east a cold front will move south across the plains and move into far southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri between 06-12z Saturday. Showers and storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, mainly from 15-21z, before the front then moves into and through the region through the day Saturday and into Saturday evening. One concern with the system is the potential impact any prefrontal precipitation will have on the environment across the Ozarks. This may limit instability and severe potential. There is the possibility that just rain and a few embedded storms occur with the early activity. A front will move through the area Saturday by early evening. The best jet dynamics with the system move over Missouri starting 12z with the surface front and 850mb/700mb fronts/troughs moving through most of the Ozarks by Saturday evening. The morning initiation of the storms are not the best time of the day for severe convection though the surface through 700mb features/fronts will aid in lift. Morning instability from 300-900j/kg of surface based instability will increase into the afternoon with upwards of 1800-2200j/kg of CAPE across areas east of Highway 65 by the afternoon peak heating. By 21z, the best 850-700mb jet dynamics will move east of the region, though there will be a 90-100+ kt 500-250mb jet streak nosing into the area through 00z. There could be the potential for strong to severe storms on Saturday, especially if a slower cold frontal passage occurs later in the day and instability can recover after the morning convection. If the front moves through faster Saturday morning, the strong to severe risk will be lower on Saturday. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected as event the 90th percentile rainfall for is struggling to reach 0.50 inches to 0.75 inches of widespread rainfall for the region. This will likely limit any flooding potential with this event. The main concerns with the Saturday system will be wind and hail, which will depend on the speed of the system to determine which will be the more concerning. With the jet energy over the area, shear may be enough for an isolated tornado to develop also. Behind the front cooler conditions will occur on Sunday, as highs may not warm out of the 60s for many locations. Models indicate a ridge moving back over the region early next weekend with highs in the 70s Monday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure resides over the region. Southeasterly surface winds will begin to increase by Thursday morning, generally between 7-12kts. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Melto