865
FXUS63 KSGF 091945
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
145 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Coldest air of the Autumn season tonight with lows in the
  teens to low 20s.

- Wind chills tonight in the single digits to teens and on
  Monday night in the teens to mid 20s.

- A warmup begins on Tuesday with 60s and 70s expected for
  Wednesday into Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather on Tuesday afternoon with windy
  conditions and a dry air mass.

- Rain chances over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Upper level analysis and current conditions: A high amplitude
upper ridge has shifted inland from the west coast yesterday and
into the great basin and intermountain west. East of the ridge
axis was a deep trough from eastern Ontario through the
Mississippi valley. The surface cold front which moved through
yesterday has pushed all the way into the Gulf to our south as
an Arctic air mass plunges into the region. Gusty northwest
winds and strong low level cold advection were occurring across
the area and were limiting temperatures in the 30s and low 40s.
The main stratus deck shifted south of the area which has helped
temperatures rise a bit, with a few stratocumulus remaining
behind the main stratus deck.

Cold temperatures and wind chills tonight into Monday: Models
are in excellent agreement in the short term, bringing the
center of the Arctic air mass into the central plains tonight.
Dry air will provide for a clear sky, but with the surface high
to our west, the winds will remain steady around 10 to 15 mph
tonight in open areas. The coldest air of the Autumn season so
far is expected with lows from the upper teens to low 20s. Wind
chills will be in the single digits to teens late tonight into
early Monday morning. Despite plenty of sunshine on Monday,
highs are only expected to be in the upper 30s to low 40s for
highs. The center of the surface high pressure will shift to our
south with the ridge axis over the area.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 144 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Another cold night Monday night: The upper trough will shift
east into the northeast and mid Atlantic states and we should
see some rising upper heights. Low level warm advection will
begin as well with a southerly surface wind and 850mb winds from
the southwest to west. We`re still looking at lows in our
eastern CWA near 20 with some warmer conditions in the west in
the mid to upper 20s.  Wind chills will be in the teens to 20s.

Warm-up starts on Tuesday and continues into Saturday: The below
normal temperatures will be short-lived with temperatures
rebounding into the mid 50s to low 60s on Tuesday with the dry
air mass and strong low level warm advection. Upper level
ridging will nudge east throughout the week and we`ll continue
the low level warm advection with temperatures warming into the
60s through the entire area on Wednesday, into the 60s to low
70s by Thursday, and in the 70s across the CWA by Friday and
Saturday.

Elevated fire weather on Tuesday: It is looking more likely for
some patches of elevated fire weather in our area on Tuesday
afternoon as winds gust over 30 mph and RH values dip into the
30s and 40s Tuesday afternoon.

Rain chances over the weekend: There are some pretty significant
model differences with how the upper level wave out west
evolves. In the deterministic models, the GFS keeps one main
closed low and bring it negatively tilted into the central
plains on Saturday, while the Canadian the ECMWF have more of a
split trough with the Canadian more bullish on closing of a low
in the southern stream portion earlier on. All 3 eventually have
a closed low over the area by Sunday. Ensemble means show a
stronger trough with the GEFS and is quicker to break out
precipitation than the ENS. Will have to monitor model trends
through the week for thunderstorm chances over the weekend, but
it is looking more likely, especially from late Saturday into
Sunday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

For the 18z TAFS, the back edge of the main stratus deck was
pushing through JLN/SGF as of 17z and will likely make it to BBG
by 18-19z. Behind the main deck which was between 2500-4000 ft
there is a more scattered stratocu deck which may linger a bit
into the afternoon. The gusty northwest winds with gusts up to
25 kts will persist through the afternoon. By 00z, the gusts
should diminish and we should be mostly clear with VFR
conditions expected through the remainder of the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg