958
FXUS63 KSGF 152254
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
554 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above-average temperatures will occur across the area for the
  remainder of the work week.

- Thunderstorm chances return late Friday night into Saturday
  night. There is the potential for strong to severe
  thunderstorms across the area.

- More seasonable temperatures to begin next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The persistent upper level ridge and surface high pressure
remained over the Ozarks region today with mostly sunny skies
and afternoon temperatures again above average for this time of
year in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With the ridge forecast to
remain over the region through Thursday night, little in the way
of forecast changes are expected through then.

Winds will be generally light with afternoon highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the middle 50s to around
60 degrees. By Thursday night, the ridge is expected to begin
shifting east, This will allow the surface pressure gradient to
begin to tighten and produce a bit more breezy conditions
across the area from west to east. Winds may gust to around
15-20mph at times Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The upper ridge will continue to move east through the day
Friday as an upper level low slides to the northeast into the
northern plains. As the low moves east, energy rounding the base
of the trough will make its way into the plains. The warmer air
mass, currently over the region, will remain in place with
highs once again warming into the lower to middle 80s with the
Ozarks now on the western edge of the ridge Friday. South to
southwesterly wind gusts around 15 to 25 mph will occur at times
on Friday ahead of the approaching system.

The upper low will move into central Canada by Friday afternoon
with the trailing upper trough remaining over the central plains
and southwest into the Four Corners region. Increasing
southwesterly flow will allow moisture to make its way into the
plains and the Ozarks through the day Friday with a cold front
making its way into eastern Kansas after dark Friday evening.
There may be a few isolated pre-frontal showers for areas west
of I-49 before midnight Friday but the main rain chances are
expected to hold off until early Saturday morning.

There are still some questions on timing and strength of the
front moving through the Ozarks Saturday morning through
Saturday night. Synoptic and longer lead CAMS are coming into
better agreement with the potential for showers and storms, some
strong to severe, impacting the region.

As the trough moves east a cold front will move south across
the plains and move into far southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri between 06-12z Saturday. Showers and
storms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front,
mainly from 15-21z, before the front then moves into and
through the region through the day Saturday and into Saturday
evening. One concern with the system is the potential impact
any prefrontal precipitation will have on the environment across
the Ozarks. This may limit instability and severe potential.
There is the possibility that just rain and a few embedded
storms occur with the early activity.

A front will move through the area Saturday by early evening.
The best jet dynamics with the system move over Missouri
starting 12z with the surface front and 850mb/700mb
fronts/troughs moving through most of the Ozarks by Saturday
evening. The morning initiation of the storms are not the best
time of the day for severe convection though the surface
through 700mb features/fronts will aid in lift. Morning
instability from 300-900j/kg of surface based instability will
increase into the afternoon with upwards of 1800-2200j/kg of
CAPE across areas east of Highway 65 by the afternoon peak
heating. By 21z, the best 850-700mb jet dynamics will move east
of the region, though there will be a 90-100+ kt 500-250mb jet
streak nosing into the area through 00z.

There could be the potential for strong to severe storms on
Saturday, especially if a slower cold frontal passage occurs
later in the day and instability can recover after the morning
convection. If the front moves through faster Saturday morning,
the strong to severe risk will be lower on Saturday. Some
locally heavy rainfall will be possible but widespread heavy
rainfall is not expected as event the 90th percentile rainfall
for is struggling to reach 0.50 inches to 0.75 inches of
widespread rainfall for the region. This will likely limit any
flooding potential with this event. The main concerns with the
Saturday system will be wind and hail, which will depend on the
speed of the system to determine which will be the more
concerning. With the jet energy over the area, shear may be
enough for an isolated tornado to develop also.

Behind the front cooler conditions will occur on Sunday, as
highs may not warm out of the 60s for many locations. Models
indicate a ridge moving back over the region early next weekend
with highs in the 70s Monday into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure resides over the
region. Southeasterly surface winds will begin to increase by
Thursday morning, generally between 7-12kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Melto