004
FXUS63 KSGF 032339
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
539 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions along the I-49 corridor and
  across south-central Missouri Tuesday afternoon due to gusty
  winds and low humidities.

- Southerly wind gusts of 25-35 mph across western Missouri and
  southeast Kansas Tuesday afternoon.

- Temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal persisting for most of
  the week.

- Low end precipitation chances (20-30%) Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Current Conditions:

Water vapor imagery depicts weak upper level ridging
overspreading the Ozarks. Surface high pressure is analyzed
over the Corn Belt with a second surface high over the Lower
Mississippi Valley. A weak cold front bisects the surface highs
and is slowly dropping south across the Ozarks. The front is
serving as nothing more than a wind shift line with temperatures
fairly uniform on either side of the boundary. Winds are light
with weak surface pressure gradients in place across the middle
U.S.

The atmosphere remains dry at all levels with the KSGF morning
sounding measuring a precipitable water value of 0.54". The
result is sunny skies and dry conditions across the area. Mid-
afternoon temperatures were in the lower and middle 60s. This is
very close to normal for early November.

Tonight and Tuesday:

The upper level flow will flatten with that weak cold front
returning north into the Corn Belt region as a warm front. A
warm air advection regime will strengthen across the lower and
middle Mississippi Valley region. A 40-45 knot low-level jet is
forecast to develop over the area with 850 mb temperatures
warming into the 14-17C range by 00Z on Wednesday. Dry weather
will persist with the HREF showing a good signal for some
increasing high cloudiness on Tuesday.

In terms of sensible weather, increasing southerly winds at the
surface will result in a wide spread for overnight lows
tonight. Valleys across the eastern Ozarks will be able to dip
into the upper 30s where winds will remain light. We would not
be surprised if a few of our coldest valleys fall into the
middle 30s. In contrast, the southerly winds will keep lows in
the upper 40s to around 50 degrees along the I-49 corridor.

Mild temperatures are then expected for your Tuesday. Those
aforementioned 850 mb temperatures are supportive of highs in
the lower to middle 70s with the warmest readings along and west
of the I-49 corridor. We went with the NBM 90th percentile for
highs versus the cooler NBM deterministic data.

Meanwhile, this looks like a classic setup where the NBM is too
moist for dew points, especially along and east of the U.S. 65
corridor. We went closer to the NBM 10th percentile for dew
points as we expect drier air to mix down to the surface in the
afternoon. The combination of the warmer temperatures and lower
dew points will result in afternoon humidities in the 35-45
percent range, with localized areas potentially falling to
around 30 percent.

The combination of the low humidity and gusty south to southwest
winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions along
the I-49 corridor and across portions of south-central Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Wednesday and Thursday:

Ensemble clustering shows good agreement that a relatively zonal
flow will persist across the region. A short wave trough will
push a weak cold front through the area on Wednesday. However,
very little change is expected to the air mass with only weak
cold air advection indicated by the clusters.

After a brief bout of northerly surface winds behind the front
on Wednesday, surface high pressure will slide to our east
with a return to southerly winds on Thursday. Tight NBM
statistical clustering gives us high confidence in temperatures
ranging from the upper 60s to the middle 70s both afternoons.

Thursday Night into Saturday:

Clusters are in good agreement that an upper level trough will
traverse through the northern U.S. Five wave charts are
favorable for this trough showing digging tendencies as it
approaches the Great Lakes. The digging nature of the trough
will support a stronger cold front at the surface (at least from
a forcing standpoint) with this feature likely passing through
the Ozarks sometime in the late Thursday night to early Friday
morning time frame.

If enough forcing and moisture return are present, a few rain
showers may develop (NBM 10-30% probabilities) with the
"highest" chances across central Missouri. Convective machine-
learning probabilities actually show a signal for thunder. This
will be dependent on the quality of moisture return and
resultant instability.

While forcing will be stronger with this front, cold air
advection does not look all that strong. Therefore, only a
slight cooldown in temperatures is expected to end the week
with highs still warming into the upper 60s or lower 70s.

Early Next Week:

Clusters begin to strongly diverge for this time period. Five
wave charts are supportive of a deepening trough over the
eastern U.S. putting the Ozarks region in a northwest flow
aloft. Nearly 70% of the global ensemble members support this
scenario with the other 30% much more zonal. Within the 70% of
ensembles supporting the eastern U.S. trough, there are varying
degrees of amplitude and differences with the location of the
trough axis.

Inspection of the NBM statistical data set shows very large
spreads in forecast high and low temperatures early next week.
If the deeper trough scenario prevails (most likely scenario),
temperatures will fall to below normal values, at least for the
first half of the week. The more zonal solution would result in
temperatures near normal.

Middle and End of Next Week:

If the eastern U.S. trough pans out, five wave charts indicate
that the trough will lose amplitude and shift east. This would
support height rises and a warming trend across the region.
Nearly 80% of the global ensemble members support this general
trend. This would favor a warming trend across the Ozarks.

The CPC 8-14 day outlook continues to show a strong signal for
above normal temperatures for this time period. Inspection of
ensemble mean temperature anomalies also supports above normal
temperatures. The ENS, GEFS, and GEPS all indicate temperatures
in the 4-8 degree above normal range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 538 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period, but gusty
south to southwest winds are expected on Tuesday with gusts
generally up to 20-30 kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Titus