551
FXUS63 KSGF 231907
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread light to moderate rain returns late tonight through
  Monday.

- Mostly dry with below-average temperatures Tuesday through
  Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s, and lows in the 20s to
  low 30s.

- Additional rain chances (60-70%) next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low stratus over the region continues to steadily clear from
south to north this afternoon. These clouds will hold on the
longest across central Missouri, so temperatures have been
adjusted downward a few degrees today for these locations.
Zooming out, water vapor imagery nicely shows an upper-level
cyclone spinning over the four corners region in the desert
southwest. This system will gradually translate east and bring
our next rain chances to the forecast area after midnight
tonight.

Before this system arrives, fog and low stratus may again be
able to form overnight. The best chances will be across portions
of the eastern Ozarks where these locations remain precipitation-
free longer. REFS and HREF probabilities for visibilities less
than 1 mile are highest (60+%) along and east of the Highway 63
corridor.

Most global models show the closed upper-level low transitioning
to an open wave as it moves into the eastern Plains. Synoptic lift
arrives across southeast Kansas and far western Missouri around
midnight along with a round of showers focused along the
baroclinic boundary. Extended reaches of the CAMs depict this
line weakening through Missouri as it outruns the better
moisture and forcing. However, additional showers will develop
throughout the afternoon and evening as the surface low
approaches the area. A lack of instability (RAP suggesting a
meager 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE) will tend to limit convective
development and rain rates. So, while lightning cannot totally
be ruled out, a thunderstorm will likely be the exception rather
than the rule. Forecast rain totals continue to trend downward
as well, generally between 0.10 and 0.50 inches. HREF and REFS
LPMM output suggest localized amounts up to 1 to 1.5 inches may
be possible across western and central Missouri where showers
may train or move over the same areas repeatedly, but most areas
will see less than these amounts. Rain chances wind down from
west to east Monday evening and night as this system pushes east
of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tuesday:
Temperatures look to stay fairly seasonable through Tuesday
before a cold front associated with an upper-level shortwave
trough over the northern CONUS digs into the Midwest. A few
global models depict very light QPF along this front, but with
meager lift and moisture, confidence in any rain actually being
realized is low. Thus, we have stuck with NBM precipitation
chances of 10-20%.

Wednesday through Friday:
Below-average temperatures settle in behind the aforementioned
cold front by Wednesday. Highs each day range from the 40s to
low 50s, with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s. A dry
airmass and northwest flow aloft will keep the region
precipitation-free through this period.

Next Weekend:
Ensemble cluster solutions diverge significantly by the weekend,
though they generally show upper-level troughing developing to
the west, which would open up the Gulf and increase moisture
advection across the Ozarks. As/if/how the trough shifts east,
rain chances may return to the area, but details on specific
timing, amounts, and locations are unclear at this point.
Likewise, NBM temperature spreads increase significantly by the
weekend, with a whopping 20 degree interquartile spread (from 39
to 59 deg) on Sunday owing to disagreements in trough placement
and speed. Current deterministic NBM high temperatures are
pretty close to the median of 50 degrees, but in reality, either
end of the spectrum is possible. Model trends will have to be
monitored in the coming days to gain confidence in the
temperature forecast this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The widespread low stratus that has been blanketing the entire
region will clear from south to north across southern Missouri
at the start of the TAF period, bringing a period of VFR
conditions to the terminals through the afternoon and evening.
Additional fog may develop again tonight, but the best signal
looks to be across the eastern Ozarks, so no mention of fog was
included in the 18Z TAFs.

An upper-level disturbance will approach from the west overnight
into Monday morning, bringing chances for light to moderate
rain and the return of MVFR to IFR ceilings. The chance of
lightning with this activity is low (10-20%) and was omitted
from the TAFs.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio