383
FXUS63 KSGF 250501
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1101 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light to moderate showers continue this afternoon
  and evening. Fog and patchy drizzle may linger into Tuesday
  morning.

- Mostly dry with below-average temperatures Tuesday afternoon
  through early Friday. Highs in the 40s to low 50s, and lows
  in the 20s to low 30s.

- Widespread precipitation chances (50% to 80%) arrive late
  Friday and persist through the weekend. All rain is favored
  across most of the area, but wet snow may mix in across the
  eastern Ozarks late Friday into early Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Nov
24 2025

This Afternoon and Evening:
Water vapor imagery nicely shows a surface low pressure system
associated with an upper-level shortwave trough spinning through
central Kansas early this afternoon. On radar, two areas of
returns are noted: The weakening remnants of last night`s/this
morning`s showers persist across southeast Missouri into
Arkansas, and scattered light showers have developed across
southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The latter activity looks
to increase in coverage through the afternoon and evening as the
aforementioned surface low approaches southwest Missouri and the
upper-level jet provides lift. Model QPF has trended upward
ever so slightly from previous forecast packages. Indeed, RAP
output depicts around 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE sneaking into
southern Missouri this afternoon, which may aid in brief,
locally higher rainfall rates. Furthermore, while most activity
will not produce lightning, this instability may be enough for a
handful of flashes through the afternoon and evening. A few
flashes across eastern Kansas have already been observed. Point
forecast soundings also suggest borderline warm/cold cloud tops
where convective activity is more limited; therefore, patchy
drizzle could be mixed in with the showers.

Additional forecast rainfall totals range from 0.20 to 0.75
inches, with HREF and REFS LPMM suggesting localized amounts
near an inch are possible.

Tonight:
A fog signal is apparent as the surface low and front exit to
the east tonight into Tuesday morning with cool air advection
and residual low-level moisture. Furthermore, northwest upslope
flow may aid in drizzle formation atop the Ozark Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CST Mon
Nov 24 2025

Cool and Mostly Dry Tuesday through early Friday:

Much of the week will be marked by cooler and mostly dry
conditions behind the passage of a cold front Tuesday afternoon.
A few models still insist on producing QPF along the boundary as
it passes through Missouri, though with shallow moisture and the
better forcing displaced to the north, not expecting much more
than a few very light showers or sprinkles. Forecast high
temperatures Wednesday through Friday range from the 40s to low
50s, and overnight lows range from the 20s to low 30s.

Precipitation Chances this Weekend:

Ensemble guidance continues to show troughing developing across
the western U.S. with southerly flow opening up the Gulf for
increased moisture return to the area. This setup will open the
door to widespread precipitation chances late Friday through the
weekend. Indeed, NBM precipitation chances remain fairly high
(50-80%) this far out, particularly on Saturday. From a big-
picture perspective, the coldest forecast temperatures in our
area are in the eastern Ozarks, where current NBM temperatures
hover right around the freezing mark Friday night through
Saturday morning. These locations are where a mix of rain and a
wet snow are favored. To the northeast, snow will be favored,
while to the southwest (most of our area), rain will be favored.
Current NBM probabilities of snow accumulations greater than 1
inch through Saturday are in the 10% to 20% range across the
eastern Ozarks. The higher probabilities are limited to far
northeast Missouri and Illinois. Likewise, the Probabilistic
Winter Storm Severity Index depicts 10% to 20% chances of minor
travel impacts across the eastern Ozarks.

Inspection of ensemble clusters reveals significant
disagreements in the evolution of the synoptic pattern persist
among the individual members through the weekend, however.
Namely, ECMWF members tend to dig a more dynamic shortwave
trough into the Plains and upper-Mississippi Valley, which would
push the colder air farther south and perhaps increase our snow
probabilities. On the other end of the spectrum, GEFS members
tend to depict a flatter or more zonal height pattern, which
would decrease our snow probabilities.

All of this to say that uncertainty remains high and details
remain sparse. But, we want to raise awareness of potential
travel impacts across the region at large due to wintry
precipitation given it`s a holiday weekend. Keep up with the
forecast throughout the week as forecast details will change.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Widespread IFR to LIFR flight conditions will continue to
linger through the overnight and Tuesday morning. Light
scattered rain showers become areas of drizzle overnight, with
ceilings between 300 to 700 feet. Additionally, can expect reduced
visibilities around 4 to 6 miles, with localized visibilities
dropping towards 1 to 2 miles at KLJN. Flight conditions
gradually improve to MVFR through mid to late morning, and
persist through the afternoon. Clouds will be slow to clear,
with the earliest potential for clearing late in the TAF period.

Meanwhile, light west-southwest winds overnight become more
west-northwest on Tuesday. Occasional wind gusts around 20 knots
through the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Perez