574
FXUS63 KSGF 071931
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
131 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy drizzle through this evening along and south of I-44.
  Low chance (less than 20 percent) for some very brief wintry
  mix east of Highway 63 this evening. No impacts or
  accumulation expected.

- Temperatures warm above average on Tuesday with gusty
  southwest winds to 30 mph. Average highs for this time period
  range from 45 to 50 degrees.

- Strong cold front moves through on Thursday night bringing
  much colder temps to the area. Highs for Friday and Saturday
  will be chilly in the 30s with lows in the single digits and
  teens with overnight wind chills in the single digits/below
  zero Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show the area in a northwest flow
pattern. A shortwave trough embedded in the flow was currently
swinging through the area. A surface front has pushed through
the area and low level cold air advection continues. Weak lift,
lack of cloud ice and low level saturation within the lowest 1km
has created patchy drizzle at times today, especially along the
Ozark Plateau. Surface temps continue to drop this afternoon
with the freezing line now down to Truman Lake.

Through Tonight: Patchy drizzle should continue off and on the
rest of the afternoon however lift continues to weaken therefore
the drizzle should be confined to areas south of I-44 through
this evening. After 6pm, there has been a consistent signal in
short term guidance that an area of light precip develops east
of Highway 63 in an area of increasing lift. The freezing line
will continue to drop into southern Missouri at the same time
therefore there could be a brief window for some patchy freezing
drizzle/wintry mix for areas along/east of Highway 63
(Dent/Shannon/Phelps counties). This activity may be difficult
to see on radar given the distance from the radar. Given the
very brief window for this light wintry precip, no accumulation
or impacts are expected at this time however we will continue to
monitor the potential. Clouds should linger overnight with
stratus continuing and perhaps building down. While vis could
drop into the 2-6 mile range with the build down, the potential
for fog less than one mile is less than 20 percent. Low temps
will likely be in the lower to middle 20s.

Monday: Latest HREF guidance suggests that it may take most of
the morning for the clouds to erode from west to east. A wind
shift to the south will occur during the morning. High temps
look to remain in the upper 30s northeast of Springfield and
lower 40s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tuesday through Wednesday: Much warmer temps
look to occur on Tuesday as mean 850mb temps rise into the 6-10C
range. NBM has been very consistent in supporting highs in the
middle to upper 50s with mostly sunny skies. This warmth will
also come with increasing surface wind gusts up to 30mph as a
pressure gradient develops over the area. Ensembles then
suggest that a strong shortwave will slide north of the region
on Wednesday. This should force a dry front into the area with
falling temps again however the bulk of the colder airmass
should get shunted just northeast of the area.

Thursday through Saturday: Ensembles continue to suggest that
strong energy will dive southeast into the northern plains
Thursday night into Friday. This energy could clip central
Missouri with light precip chances however the trend has been
for the higher precip chances to remain northeast of the area.
The main story will be the very cold airmass that looks to dive
southeast into the central US for Friday into the weekend. There
still remains differences as to the strength of the cold
airmass with the NBM showing temperature differences of 10-15
degrees. However even with those differences, the latest NBM
does show a 70-90% chance of high temps below 40 degrees and a
50-70% chance of low temps less than 15 degrees. This would also
cause wind chills to drop close to zero. Precip chances
currently are less than 10 percent for this cold snap.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

IFR ceilings and brief fog and mist will likely continue in and
on and off fashion for the afternoon hours with the mist/drizzle
ending this evening. IFR/MVFR ceilings will likely persist
overnight into Monday morning before improving conditions
towards the end of the TAF period. There is lower confidence in
some patchy MVFR fog forming overnight into Monday morning.
Currently the chance of fog less than one mile is very low (less
than 20 percent). Winds will be out of the north through tonight
with a gradual switch to the south Monday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield