525
FXUS63 KSGF 100750
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
150 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Coldest air of the Autumn season today with highs in the upper
  30s to around 40 degrees.

- Wind chills tonight in the single digits to teens and on
  Monday night in the teens to mid 20s.

- A warmup begins on Tuesday with 60s and 70s expected for
  Wednesday into Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather on Tuesday afternoon with windy
  conditions and a dry air mass.

- Rain chances over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Satellite observations and surface analysis showed a cold
surface high slowly moving south across the plains with the
center of the high over western Kansas. Clouds associated with
low pressure over northern Illinois, from 4-5kft, were moving
south and producing a few reports of flurries or light snow. The
coldest air of the season was making its way into the region
this morning with lows in the lower to middle 20s across the
area. With the high west of the region, winds will stay 5-10mph
with wind chills in the 5-15 degree range this morning before
temperatures warn into the middle 30s to around 40 degrees this
afternoon.

The northern edge of the surface high will slide over the
Ozarks tonight allowing temperatures to fall into the 20s. The
upper level trough will shift east with upper level northwest
flow making a return. Winds will remain up enough to produce
wind chills in the teens to lower 20s.

From late tonight into Tuesday morning, southwesterly surface
and middle level flow and warm air advection will begin in
earnest. This will signal the beginning of a warming trend for
this week. A 50 kt 850 jet will move over the Ozarks as the
surface pressure gradient tightens as well. Some of this wind
may make it to the surface through the day Tuesday which will
allow for wind gusts from 30 to locally 40 mph at times. The
warm air advection however, will allow highs to climb into the
upper 50s to low 60s in the afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Tuesday as
afternoon winds gust over 30 mph and RH values dip into the 30s
and 40s Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to areas of elevated
fire weather across the area Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Upper level ridging will move east through the end of the week
with continued warm advection and temperatures warming into the
60s through the entire area on Wednesday to the 70s across the
Ozarks by Friday and Saturday.

The next chances for rain will come this weekend. While there
are model differences with an upper level low and how it tracks
across the four corners region and lifts towards the Ozarks. As
the low moves towards the region, increasing warm air and
moisture advection will be ongoing with the potential for some
convection depending on which model solution comes to pass.

Will continue to watch the evolution of the system and model
trends through the week for thunderstorm chances over the
weekend, especially from late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Clear skies and VFR flight conditions can be expected through
the forecast period as high pressure will make its way into the
region today. Surface winds will initially be from the northwest
with winds from 5 to 10 mph.

Winds by Tuesday morning will increase as the next system moves
into the plains with winds from 30-40mph possible out of the
southwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch