964
FXUS63 KSGF 161115
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures drop into the 60s today and Monday, then warm
  well above normal again Tuesday with highs climbing well into
  the 70s.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible (20-40%) as early as Monday afternoon through early
  Tuesday morning. Not all locations will be affected by this
  activity.

- Higher rain chances (>60%) will then occur Wednesday into
  Thursday night as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
  are expected to move across portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

An upper-level ridge is located to the west, leaving the area
in an upper-level northwest flow pattern. A drier and cooler air
mass is advecting from northeast to southwest at the surface.
Highs this afternoon will range from around 60 across central
Missouri to near 70 across far southwestern Missouri. Afternoon
humidity values will drop to 20 to 35% with the lowest readings
across the eastern Ozarks today. Winds will remain on the
lighter side today, generally less than 10kts. Winds will start
to increase some tonight into Monday morning as the surface
high moves off to the east. Lows tonight into Monday morning
will range from the upper 30s across the eastern Ozarks to the
upper 40s to near 50 across far southwestern Missouri.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

The upper-level ridge will move east across the Plains and a
warm front will move northeast through the area on Monday. Highs
will range from the upper 50s across eastern Ozarks to near 70
across extreme southeastern Kansas where a warm air mass will
start to advect in behind the front. Low-level moisture will
also start to advect from southwest to northeast on Monday, but
will be slower to move into the eastern Ozarks where humidity
values around 30 to 40% will occur. Southerly winds will
increase and become gusty on Monday. As some instability builds
along the warm front on Monday, a few isolated showers and
storms will be possible, mainly east of Highway 65. Coverage
will be limited and most locations should remain dry.

An upper shortwave trough that is currently over the
southwestern CONUS will lift northeast across the Plains on
Monday and into Iowa Monday night. Ahead of the trough, some
uncapped MUCAPE will re-develop and move east across the area
Monday evening into early Tuesday morning.

A drier air mass in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will be in
place across the western portions of the area ahead of the
trough (generally west of Highway 65). This drier air may
limit how much of instability can be realized, limiting shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially with the better upper-level
support remaining north of the area. There will be slightly
better moisture east of Highway 65, so may again see some
scattered showers and storms develop late Monday evening into
early Tuesday morning. MUCAPE values may approach 1000J/kg, and
may support some small hail with a few of the storms. Not all
locations will be impacted as coverage remains more isolated to
scattered.

Breezy southwesterly winds will occur on Tuesday with a warmer
air mass advecting into the region. Highs on Tuesday will be
well above normal again with readings well into the 70s. Some
record highs could be approached on Tuesday.

A front will sag south through the area later Tuesday into
Tuesday night and stall over or just south of the area. Another
upper-level low will dig into the southwestern U.S. with a
southwest upper-level flow pattern developing on Wednesday. The
front will then start to lift back to the north Wednesday into
Wednesday night. As energy moves off the low to the southwest
along the front, showers and storms will develop. The ensemble
model members all show the same setup, but still differ
slightly on how far south the front moves and stalls, and how
quickly the front moves back to the north. If the front stalls
further south, the rain will develop south of the area and move
north with the front, so portions of the northern CWA may not
see much rain until later. If the front stalls further north,
showers and storms would develop along the front over the area
then lift north.

The upper-level trough will then move east into the Plains on
Thursday and through our area on Thursday night. Surface low
pressure will develop and move across the area Thursday into
Thursday night ahead of the upper-level trough. Additional
showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front and move
across the area as the low and associated front moves east
across the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with
the rounds of rain. There could be the potential for some strong
storms if enough instability can develop, if the leading front
moves further north and faster. If the front lingers south, it
would limit instability development over the area, with locally
heavy rainfall being the main risk. The upper-level trough will
move off the east on Friday, but some showers could linger
through the day as the system moves off to the east.

Beyond Friday, uncertainty increases as the ensemble model
member differences become quite pronounced as another piece of
energy moves into the southwest US. There could be a few drier
and cooler days behind the mid/late weekend system before this
system moves in the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will occur across the area today through tonight.
Light northeast to easterly winds will occur this morning and
afternoon. Winds will become more southeasterly this evening
then will start to increase some late tonight into Monday. Mid
level clouds will start to move into the area from the west
tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

For context, average high temps for middle
November are in the 55-59 degree range.

Record High Temperatures:

November 18:
KSGF: 78/1930
KJLN: 76/1999
KVIH: 74/1981
KUNO: 74/2017

November 19:
KJLN: 75/1950

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise
CLIMATE...Wise