416
FXUS63 KSGF 171904
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
204 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Round 1 of thunderstorms will likely begin overnight tonight
  and continue into Saturday morning.

- Additional thunderstorms are expected from about midday
  Saturday into the evening. Some of these storms may be severe
  and could produce some localized flooding.

- Cooler temperatures in the 60s will occur on Sunday behind the
  front. Slight warm up occurs on Monday followed by high
  temperatures in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s for the
  rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show broad
southwesterly flow over the area ahead of an upper level trough.
There is an embedded circulation pushing into southern MO, but
this is only producing some mid and high level cloudiness. A
closed circulation off the California coast was in the process
of being cutoff from the main flow as an upper level jet
continues to dive southeast across the Pacific northwest. It is
another well above normal temperature day across the area with
readings as of early afternoon in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Tonight: Initially we should clear out the mid/upper level cloud
cover this evening, but clouds should be on the increase
overnight. A low level jet will develop over the area and
moisture should increase across the area. CAMS begin to develop
convection after 09z across our west and begin to shift this
convection over the I44 corridor by 12z-15z. Hazards with this
initial convection will be with lightning and hail with mainly
elevated instability.

Saturday into Saturday night severe risk: The mode of the
afternoon convection may depend on how widespread the morning
convection becomes. A more widespread morning thunderstorm
coverage will limit the amount of instability will be realized
during the afternoon and could limit the potential for any
discrete supercells. However, less morning coverage will offer
better chances for supercells, especially over south central MO.
Our best chances for large hail up to golf ball size will be
over south central MO if some discrete supercells develop. We
are expecting most of the activity to become more linear by mid
to late afternoon and the evening as the cold front begins to
surge east. The tornado risk, while low is not zero and would be
within the QLCS. The main risk will be with 60-70mph damaging
winds.

Saturday into Saturday night Flooding Potential: CAMS are
indicating more training of storm potential over the area with
the highest rain totals along and southeast of the interstate 44
corridor. Widespread rain of 1 to 2 inches remains possible with
a more narrow corridor of 2 to 3 inches and isolated higher
amounts of over 4 inches possible. Despite the current drought
status over the area, this rainfall potential may produce some
localized areas of flooding.

Much drier air begins to push into the area late Saturday night
and should end the precipitation from west to east.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Coooler on Sunday: A cooler and drier air mass moves into the
area on Sunday which will bring highs more in line with our
current season. Highs on Sunday should be in the low to mid 60s
with plenty of sunshine. Lows Sunday night will be in the low
40s in the eastern Ozarks and the upper 40s in the western CWA.

Warmer and breezy on Monday: The surface high will shift east of
the area Sunday night and Monday. An upper level wave will push
across the northern plains and upper Mississippi valley and push
a cold front through the area on Monday. Ahead of the front,
gusty winds up to 30 mph will be possible as the pressure
gradient tightens between the departing high and advancing
front. Temperatures should swing back into the low to mid 70s
across the area. It doesn`t look like enough moisture will
return into the area for precipitation with the frontal passage,
so we are keeping things dry for now.

Cooler temperatures Tuesday through Thursday: A cooler air mass
will push into the area behind the front on Monday bringing more
fall like air to the area. Highs will generally be in the 60s
and lows in the 40s, but could see some mid to upper 30s in the
eastern Ozarks Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Rain chances Thursday: The low that is currently being cutoff
from the main flow off the California coast will eventually get
kicked out and absorbed into the main westerlies by midweek. If
the energy can hold together, we could see some rain chances
return by Thursday into Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

For the 18z TAFS, some mid level clouds were occurring with a
weak upper shortwave within the southwest flow ahead of the main
trough. Models are suggesting that this cloud cover should exit
to the east this afternoon and we should clear out before the
cloud cover and storms develop late tonight. We anticipate that
this first round of storms will begin around 09-10z in the
west(JLN) and SGF(10-11z) and continue into the mid morning.
Mainly expecting VFR conditions outside of the convection, but
could see some MVFR or brief IFR within the convection. Round 2
will likely begin by mid to late morning and continue past the
expiration of this set of TAFS. A low level jet will set up over
the area tonight and will likely cause some low level wind shear
to develop at SGF/SGF with shear up to 40 kts possible.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg