358
FXUS66 KSGX 181253
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
453 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widely scattered, mostly light showers will continue today into
this evening with the next Pacific low pressure system from the
northwest bringing another round of more widespread showers for
Thursday night and Friday with decreasing chances for showers into
next weekend. Drier and warmer for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A closed upper level low pressure system is centered near Point
Conception early this morning. The center of this low pressure
system will move to near San Diego early Wednesday, then near the
Colorado River by late Wednesday afternoon. The back edge for the
precipitation with the cold front is near the mountains of
Riverside and San Diego Counties and will continue to move slowly
eastward early this morning. Rainfall since Monday for Orange and
southwestern San Bernardino Counties has mostly been one-quarter
to one-half inch for the Orange County coastal plain for the
Inland Empire with around one inch in the mountains. For San Diego
County, rainfall for the coast and valleys has been one-half to
locally more than one inch with one-qaurter inch or less for the
mountains in central and southern San Diego County.

Widely scattered mostly light showers will continue
today, possibly continuing into this evening for the coastal
waters with additional rainfall of one-quarter inch or less. The
snow level has lowered to around 6500 feet and will continue to
lower today to around 5500 feet with additional snowfall today of
a few inches, mostly above 6000 feet.

Wednesday will be drier and slightly warmer, though with a
continuing slight chance of showers for the mountains. The next
low pressure system from the northwest could bring some light
showers as early as late Thursday morning or Thursday afternoon
with the more widespread showers arriving on Thursday night. A
snow level near 5500 to 6000 feet early Thursday morning will rise
to around 6500 to 7000 feet by late Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
The more widespread showers are expected to arrive on Thursday
night and continue into Friday. Showers should begin to decrease
on Friday night, but there`s greater model spread on just how far
into the weekend that some showers might linger with the chance of
measurable precipitation in the mountains decreasing to around 30
percent on Saturday and 15 percent on Sunday. For early Thursday
morning through late Friday night, the chance of one inch or more
of liquid equivalent for the mountains is 50 to 60 percent with a
30 to 40 percent chance for two inches or more in the mountains.
The snow level will be mostly 6000 to 6500 feet.

Then drying and warming for next week, but with greater model
spread on just how quickly and how much warming occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...
181030Z...A band of RA mainly in San Diego County will continue
to move east. In this band cigs 900-2500 feet MSL, vis 3- 5SM in
RA. SHRA in deserts and areas of higher terrain obscured. Vcnty
KSNA and KONT, SCT clouds around 3500-5000 feet. After 13Z, ISO-
SCT SHRA from coast to mountains (SHSN in higher mountains), with
bases locally 2500 feet MSL in precip. SHRA diminishes after 02Z
but with ISO SHRA and locally BKN clouds around 3000 feet MSL
overnight into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday, but
the next storm system has the potential to bring hazardous winds and
seas Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Elevated surf of 3 to 5 feet, with sets to 6 feet on west-facing
beaches is expected this morning, generating a high risk of rip
currents.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for San
     Bernardino County Mountains.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM