Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
630 FXUS66 KSGX 262121 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 121 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather will continue through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. High pressure over the area today will gradually weaken through this period, leading to a cooling trend and slight chance of showers by Sunday. Another weather system will move into the western part of the country by the middle of next week, which may bring a greater chance of showers or continued dry weather. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Offshore flow continues this afternoon with coastal slope and adjacent valleys regions seeing wind gusts near 25-40 MPH. Winds can be expected to become weaker and more localized closer to the coastal slopes later this afternoon through Thursday morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. High pressure will remain aloft by the Thanksgiving holiday, leading to communities seeing highs near 5 to 10 degrees above normal. An area of low pressure off to the west will will help bring in high clouds across the region as well. The flow will become more zonal as high pressure weakens over the southwestern U.S. by Friday. This will bring greater onshore flow and cooling on Friday into the weekend. High temperatures will be within 5 degrees of normal by this weekend. Model guidance continues to take a low pressure system further inland across the Great Basin by this weekend. This matches the precipitation trends which have gone down when looking at past models runs over the previous few days. NBM POPs have gone down to around a 10% chance of seeing measurable precipiation on Sunday into late Sunday night, mainly across the mountains. Confidence continues to increase on Sunday being cooler with limited precipitation amounts. By the first half of next week, SoCal will see highs near average with dry weather. An area of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest sometime around next Tuesday, pushing southward by the middle of next week. The path of this weather system is still highly uncertain. Out ahead of it, offshore flow will begin to come back to the region by Monday and Tuesday. Winds as of now look fairly benign, but this may change as we head closer to this event. If this weather system goes far enough to our west, the chances for precipitation will increase. If it stays farther inland over the desert, we would receive nothing. NBM POPs are around 20-30% for much of the region by this time, but things will change as we head closer and see where the exact track of the system ends up. && .AVIATION... 262100Z...Coasts...VFR conditions and mostly clear skies continue through the period. Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...VFR conditions and clear skies continue through the period. E to NE winds locally gusting 25-40 kt in mountain passes with weaker gusts to 15-25 kts stretching into valleys below mountain passes this afternoon. Elevated offshore wind gusts become more confined to mountain passes by 06z Thursday. Areas of LLWS/low-level turbulence along foothills/west mountain slopes. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...Munyan