853
FXUS66 KSGX 150524
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
924 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A Pacific storm will continue to impact the region through the
weekend. Lighter showers through this evening will evolve into
heavier and more widespread precipitation late tonight into
Saturday, including the chance for thunderstorms. The weather
pattern looks like it will remain active with another winter
storm expected to impact the region for Monday into Tuesday with
another system expected to impact the region later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

This evening...The Pacific storm centered off the coast of Central
CA will continue to bring light rain and showers to the region
through tonight. The cloud elements (and rainfall) will continue
to move from south to north even as the system moves southward
tonight. In the last 36 hours, rainfall reports have ranged from
as much as two thirds to nearly an inch in portions of Orange
County and on the slopes of the San Bernardino Mountains. Amounts
decrease from north to south and from west to east. Portions of
southern San Diego County have received only a few hundredths of
an inch.

From previous discussion...
As the system begins to push inland over the area tonight into
Saturday, heavier and more widespread/constant precip will move
into the area. The track of the low is more definite now, moving
off to the northeast over Southern California into the Desert
Southwest by Sunday afternoon. Models show a vorticity maxima and
associated IVT surge moving through with this system, leading to
highest confidence in the heaviest precipiation falling for many
by Saturday morning into the first half of the afternoon.
Widespread rainfall is expected to occur for all areas of the
region, including the deserts where some areas will receive near
one inch of rain in total. Latest hi-res guidance continues to
show bands/ribbons of heavier precipitation occurring on Saturday
morning into the early afternoon, but there remains lower
confidence in exactly where these set up. Whoever finds themselves
under these bands of precipitation, will see heavy rainfall in a
short amount of time. Elevated CAPE is also seen across the region
during this time period, so embedded thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out. As the frontal boundary passes through the area, winds
will strengthen as well. Models indicate southerly prefrontal
winds gusting near 20-30 MPH for areas near the coast and adjacent
valleys and closer to 30-40 MPH across the desert slopes.

Post-frontal precipiation will occur Saturday evening into Sunday for
areas along and west of the mountains. Models show some of these
being more isolated with moderate amounts of rain at times. Snow
levels will remain above 8000 ft with this warm system, but will
begin to fall closer to 6,500-7,000 feet by Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Snow amounts for mountain towns near these
elevations will see near one inch of total snow. Local WRF model
shows an interesting set up, with the surface low maintaining
itself into Sunday morning bringing additional bands of heavier
precipitation. Rain rates near 0.75"/hr are shown in some of these
bands, so something to keep an eye on as we move closer in time.

.NEXT WEEK...

After a brief break from precip Sunday afternoon/evening, it is
likely that another weather system will move through the area by
Monday and Tuesday, as well as an additional system that may
approach our region later next week. Confidence is high that the
system early next week will impact the region, but exactly where
it goes is still in question, where some models depict it to be
closer to our area, some further offshore. Whatever the exact
path, chances for rain and cooler weather will remain in the
forecast for early next week; the forecast also calls for mountain
communities/resorts to see some higher accumulations than we
expect this weekend. NBM forecasts show highs well below average
with highs in the 50s/60s for many lower elevations/deserts,
30s/40s for higher elevations. NBM chances are 30-50% to see rain
totals over 1 inch for this storm system for areas west of the
mountains.

After the early next week storm system passes, a weak ridge may try
to nudge into the area by Wednesday. This would bring back some
actual sunshine and slightly warmer (still cooler) weather. Models
are beginning to align in yet another storm system moving in from
the northwest sometime around Thursday or Friday. The details of
this system are highly uncertain, but the forecast continues to show
an active weather pattern for the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...
150500Z...Currently observing widespread RA in Orange County and the
Inland Empire with some patchy -RA elsewhere. Multiple SCT-OVC
layers present from 500-6000 ft MSL. VIS down to 2-5SM in RA. -RA/RA
to become intermittent region-wide for the next few hours. Main
frontal band to increase rain intensity and coverage from west to
east, reaching the coast 10-12z early Sat. Timing for most
significant rain 16-22z Sat across the region, featuring +RA, TSRA
and periods of south winds gusting to 20-30 kts near the coast and
mountains.

Intermittent IFR VIS (1-3SM) and lowered CIGs (1000-2000 ft MSL)
with any heavier precip.

Coverage of TSRA and RA (along with associated CIG/VIS restrictions)
begins to decrease from south to north after 22Z Sat with winds
becoming southwesterly and slowly weakening through the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds increase to 15-25 kts overnight with gusts 25-35 kts
possible through the daytime hours, especially in the morning. This
will bring steep, mixed seas 5-8 feet throughout the coastal waters.
See the Small Craft Advisory for more. Winds become southwesterly
mid-afternoon Saturday and then weaken slightly to 10-15 kts
Saturday night with periods of stronger winds and gusts still
possible through Sunday with outflow from showers.

Additionally, heavy rain causing reduced visibility and
thunderstorms embedded within the rain will cause for even more
hazardous conditions. A Marine Weather Statement thrugh late
Saturday contains more details.

Winds strengthen again on Monday ahead of the next storm system.
There is still some uncertainty in exact intensity of winds, but
gusts in excess of 20 knots are possible along with another round of
precipitation.

&&

.BEACHES...
West swell 4-5 feet will combine with a south wind swell to create
elevated surf 4-7 feet with local sets to 8 feet through Saturday.
Additionally, there is a chance (20-30%) for thunderstorms this
evening through Saturday afternoon. See the Beach Hazard Statement
for more.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday afternoon for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Flood Watch from 4 AM PST Saturday through Saturday evening for
     Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Orange County
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County
     Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino
     and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego
     County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass
     near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM PST Saturday for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...Westerink