151
FXUS64 KSHV 282349
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
549 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

 - Showers and thunderstorms will return as early as late tonight
   and continue through early Sunday as a strong cold front ushers
   in sharply colder air for early next week.

 - A low-end threat of severe storms will precede the cold frontal
   passage late Saturday through Saturday night.

 - A more progressive pattern will allow another trough passage on
   Monday, leading to additional rainfall and a low-end threat of
   some wintry mixed precipitation in SE OK/SW AR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Our stretch of dry weather continues this afternoon, but that will
be coming to an end very shortly as a transition in the upper-level
flow pattern is already underway. While the pattern remains nearly
zonal across our region at the moment, longwave troughing upstream
across the Rockies and a lead shortwave emerging invof the Texas
Big Bend Region have already resulted in some scattered convection
developing well out to our west. However, this trend of additional
convection expanding in coverage farther east is expected to bring
showers and isolated thunderstorms into our W/NW zones later this
evening and overnight, especially after midnight as broad ascent
and deep-layer moisture increases.

This increase in convection will only become more enhanced through
the day Saturday and Saturday night as the longwave trough pivots
from the Rockies into the Plains and Mid-MS Valley. This longwave
trough will propel a strong cold front through the region late in
the day on Saturday through Saturday night with additional forcing
in the lower levels. As a result, much of our Four-State region
remains on the hook for a few strong to severe storms during this
late day timeframe and extending into the overnight hours. A warm
front lifting back north on Saturday should advance well into our
region in advance of the cold front, resulting in a Marginal Risk
of severe weather over a fairly sizable portion of the CWA. The
environment will become increasingly sheared throughout the day,
but instability and moisture recovery are bigger question marks at
this point. All that to say it appears that isolated large hail
and damaging wind gusts are primary threats while the threat of
tornadoes is quite low and generally confined to Deep East Texas.
This same general area is also highlighted in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall along with adjacent areas of Central Louisiana
where 1-2 inches and isolated higher amounts will be possible.

By daybreak on Sunday, all of the convection should be clear of
our region along with the advancing cold front. Expect a brief
drying out period to follow, albeit much colder with increasing
CAA and gusty north winds expected on Sunday. Moving into Monday,
our attention quickly turns to the next shortwave diving from the
Rockies into the Southern Plains with increased forcing aloft and
a developing overrunning scenario across our region. As a result,
look for a cold rain event for much of the region on Monday into
Monday night, but we continue to monitor the potential of a brief
window where temperatures may drop near to even below freezing on
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The area of most concern
for this possibility is primarily across SE OK and adjacent parts
of SW AR, mainly in the higher terrain along the Ouachitas where
some wintry mixed precipitation could occur briefly before all of
the available moisture is quickly shunted east with the ejecting
trough. With that in mind, expect a very cold start to December
across the entire region with back-to-back nights of widespread
freezing to near freezing temperatures likely on Monday night and
Tuesday night before a modest warm-up begins on Wednesday. Another
brief period of dry weather will prevail through Wednesday before
rain chances return once again by Wednesday night into Thursday.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Mid-level ceilings around 10kft this evening will gradually lower
to around 5-7kft overnight, with the threat for rain and
thunderstorms also increasing from west to east after midnight.
After a period of -RA (with VCTS also possible) for most terminals
through early Saturday, precip will become more scattered/hit-or-miss
through the afternoon before another chance for more widespread
rain and thunderstorms moves across terminals from NW to SE
Saturday evening. VFR ceilings will largely prevail this TAF
period, with the exception across mainly KTYR to KTXK where cigs
may lower to MVFR towards 18z and then struggle to recover. Winds
will remain out of the SE overnight around 10kts, become breezier
on Saturday with gusts near 20kts at times. Temporary restrictions
to vsbys will exist within heavier pockets of rain and/or any
thunderstorm.

CK

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 113 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Spotter activation may be needed late Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  46  65  38  49 /  60  80  90  10
MLU  41  63  40  49 /  10  70 100  20
DEQ  40  54  27  45 /  80  90  40   0
TXK  44  60  33  46 /  70  90  70  10
ELD  38  57  32  45 /  40  90  90  10
TYR  48  65  34  47 /  70  70  60   0
GGG  46  65  34  47 /  70  80  80  10
LFK  46  70  39  51 /  60  70 100  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...23