037
FXUS64 KSHV 091217
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
617 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - Freezing fog and widespread frost will be the primary concerns
   for tonight along with some lingering low clouds that could
   impact lows.

 - The week ahead will be mostly dry with a steady warming trend
   through Thursday, followed by unseasonably mild temperatures
   into Saturday.

 - The next strong cold front will move through the area sometime
   this weekend, although there remains some uncertainty on timing
   and location.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The primary concern for the rest of the night will be the
persistence of a low-level cloud deck, particularly across our
Louisiana parishes, which has exhibited a recent westward
expansion. This shallow cloud shield will critically influence
overnight radiational cooling, leading to some stark temperature
gradients across the area. Areas that have successfully cleared
out are already experiencing temperatures in the low to mid-30s.
In contrast, those lingering beneath the cloud cover are being
insulated some, holding temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40
degrees. Based on this highly localized clearing, a widespread low
of 30-35 degrees is in the forecast, though this may be too
ambitious for some locations. Furthermore, the combination of
light winds, and some low-level moisture, we are seeing the
development of fog across portions of the area, mainly across far
east Texas. Of particular concern is the potential for this fog to
interact with the cold temperatures, leading to some instances of
freezing fog in some locations. A more benign, widespread frost
event is also expected for most of the region, higher chances for
those that remain clear through the night. This pattern will
necessitate a close monitoring of surface observations throughout
the overnight hours for any advisories that might be needed.

Beyond this, the mid-week period from Tuesday through Thursday
appears comparatively tranquil, characterized by dry conditions
and a welcome increase in diurnal temperatures. A weak, high-
amplitude cold fronted will traverse the region between Wednesday
and Thursday, but is expected to be largely moisture-starved and
will only impart a negligible reduction in temperatures. The most
significant forecast challenge will remain the timing and speed of
the next cold front. Recent model runs have trended toward a
slower progression, suggesting the frontal boundary may not begin
its push until Saturday. This slower evolution implies a period of
unseasonably mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday, with highs
potentially reaching the 70s across the southern half of the area.
A cooler and more seasonable air mass will filter into the region
on Sunday and for the start of the week. Rain chances associated
with this frontal passage will remain low and are expected to be
primarily confined to the northeastern zones Saturday night into
Sunday. The trend towards deceleration will be closely watched to
fine-tune the weekend temperature and precipitation forecast.

/33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

For the 09/12Z TAF update, IFR/LIFR vis/cigs with FG continues to
overspread most of the local airspace, prompting a Dense Fog
Advisory through 09/16Z. Skies will gradually clear to VFR
vis/cigs through the rest of the period with light southerly winds.
/16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  46  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  41  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  37  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  44  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  56  41  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  62  46  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  61  44  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  63  44  68  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...16