131
FXUS64 KSHV 011857
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1257 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

 -  Rain showers will be ending overnight with clearing skies and
    freezing temperatures areawide with a light frost.

 -  Our next cold front will see our midweek southerly winds back
    to NE overnight with falling temperatures once again.

 -  Overall, a cold week with a nice warming trend for our
    afternoons by this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Noon readings remain very chilly for us as meteorological Winter
has arrived with an exclamation point. Mid to upper 30s for many
locales north of I-20 with lower 40s more common over our south.
N/NE winds are adding a little chill and the rain, while mostly
light, is making for a messy Monday. Radar trends are clearing up
north of I-30 and HRRR is hanging in there with this light
convective activity working to our SE shortly after midnight.

Skies will be clearing out and some fog will be possible over the
Parishes, but drier dew points arriving across I-30 will be more
likely spreading in a little frost around before daybreak.
Morning lows will be at or below freezing everywhere, so once
again limited time for preparation. However, this is a light
freeze along and south of I-20 with the colder mid 20s well north
of there in parts of NE TX, SE OK and S/SW AR.

Our highs and lows will continue chilly for the early December
climate by a good 10 degrees through midweek. Then southerly winds
will bring some reprieve, by Wednesday afternoon closer to
average, and an above normal Thursday morning before the north
winds become gusty and the clearing skies make for some more
crisp mornings by late week and this weekend. Highs in the 50s
will round out the work week, but the weekend will see average low
to mid 60s for a little change.

The clouds will gather once again Wednesday into Thursday with
more widespread showers. The WPC outlook for rainfall is very
light over our north from a trace to a few tenths, and totals of
a half inch to an inch across much of our area south of I-20. So
hopefully all good news for our drought conditions in the coming
updates.  /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Low MVFR/IFR cigs have quickly developed over much of the region and
will continue to spread N across into SW AR/SE OK by early
afternoon, as strong overrunning will persist through the day.
Thus, vsbys will continue to diminish through the afternoon as
periods of -DZ develop, although areas of convection will increase
across the area through the remainder of the afternoon,
maintaining IFR cigs and reduced vsbys. The threat for any -FZRA
will remain just N of the region this afternoon, although isolated
embedded TSRA will be possible mainly along/N of the I-20 corridor
of E TX/N LA. Only have enough confidence to mention TSRA in the
SHV/ELD terminals, but amendments may be needed later this
afternoon at TYR/GGG as well should TSRA redevelop near these
terminals. The convection will begin to shift E and gradually
diminish from W to E late this afternoon into the evening,
although IFR cigs may linger a while until drier air begins to
deepen and cigs gradually lift. MVFR cigs should return to E
TX/TXK by mid to late evening, and across N LA after 06Z. These
cigs should eventually scatter out from W to E by/after daybreak
Tuesday, with VFR conditions returning to all terminals by the end
of the 18Z TAF period. NNE winds 5-8kts this afternoon will become
NNW after 00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  43  32  49  33 /  80  50   0   0
MLU  42  32  47  26 /  90  90   0   0
DEQ  37  23  47  25 /  60  10   0   0
TXK  38  28  47  30 /  60  20   0   0
ELD  37  25  45  25 /  80  60   0   0
TYR  43  30  50  34 /  60  10   0   0
GGG  42  28  50  32 /  70  30   0   0
LFK  47  31  53  34 /  80  60   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ050-051-060-
     061.

LA...None.
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ077.

TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15