869
FXUS64 KSHV 111049
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
549 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

 - Benign weather pattern will persist through the weekend as dry
   NW flow aloft will prevail.

 - Upper-level ridge will gradually expand back eastward across
   the region with temperatures trending warmer into next week.

 - Persistent warm and dry conditions will promote additional
   drought expansion, and lower humidity may enhance fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Persistence forecasting is not usually something we`re still
talking about in mid-October, but here we are stuck with the
status quo. If you`re looking for any trend lines or subtle
differences in the day-to-day forecast, it`s likely to be the
temperatures slowly creeping back higher each day through this
weekend and on into next week. The reason is the upper-level ridge
will gradually expand back across the region through this weekend
and especially by early next week. As a result, look for high
temperatures to climb back well above average each day with most
areas ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s except for possibly
our far northern zones where mid 80s are more likely along the
Ouachitas.

Another element to the forecast worth mentioning is sort of a
good news/bad news predicament. Lower humidity will allow for
relatively cooler mornings and fairly pleasant afternoons despite
the rising temperatures, but it could also present fire danger
concerns with a more prolonged dry period and no appreciable
rainfall in the forecast. This scenario will almost certainly
contribute to drought conditions further deteriorating/expanding
through the end of next week. Looking out just beyond this 7-day
period, there does appear to be a bit more model consistency in
the medium range progs to suggest the ridge finally breaking down
and a major trough emerging from the Rockies out across the Plains
by late next weekend. For now, this will bear watching as we move
closer to what is historically our secondary severe weather season
by mid to late fall.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the 11/12z TAF period...VFR conditions will remain across the
region, with some passing mid and high clouds through the period.
Winds will range from light/variable to NE around 5 mph. /20/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  86  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  85  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  88  61  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  84  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  89  62  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  88  61  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  89  60  90  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20