076
FXUS64 KSHV 031755 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1018 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Another round of cold rain will start falling this evening,
   continuing through Friday afternoon/evening.

 - Conditions stay dry for the first half of next week with
   sunshine returning to the region by Monday.

 - Warm weather may be on the horizon again beyond the middle of
   next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1018 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A few adjustments have been made to today`s forecast: cloud cover
has been bumped up and high temps for this afternoon have been
lowered to align with recent observations and trends. The
persistant stratus deck will keep the region cooler than
previously forecasted, but other parameters are currently on
track.

As for this forecast period, low-level isentropic lift and
increased moisture advection will bring rain back to the region
beginning this evening. This will be a slow and steady rain
lasting through at least Friday afternoon for most areas, making
flooding not a concern for this event. Luckily, temperatures
tonight look to stay mostly above freezing, which limits the risk
of freezing precip. The exception to this would be the far
northern portion of McCurtain Co, OK who could see some drizzle
tonight. Confidence isn`t high enough to introduce this
possibility into the forecast, but is worth mentioning. Much of
the southeastern half of the forecast area are likely to see at
least 1" of rain in the coming days, with some areas furthest
southeast possibly seeing total rain amounts in excess of 2". High
temperatures in the afternoons will stay in the 40s and 50s
through Friday thanks to the rain.

Rain should be completely clear of the Ark-La-Tx by Saturday
morning, with clouds lingering until Sunday. Calm northwesterly
flow aloft should keep next week dry with near-normal
temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows for areas north of
I-20 could creep into the mid to upper 20s without the insulating
cloud cover. However, CPC is hinting at another return to above-
average temps and below- average precip for the 8-14 day period.

57

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

IFR/low MVFR cigs to start the TAF period will slowly lift
through the afternoon, but remain MVFR through the evening, before
areas of SHRA develop by mid to late evening and quickly spreads
NE across the region. As it does so, cigs will become IFR with
reduced vsbys across much of E TX prior to 06Z, and over the N LA
and TXK terminals between 06-12Z. Some isolated/embedded thunder
can not be ruled out within the -SHRA mainly S of I-20, but low
confidence precludes mention in the TAFs attm. Even as this first
wave of convection diminishes from W to E between 09-12Z Thursday,
scattered areas of -RA/-DZ will linger across the area, before the
second wave of SHRA moves into the region by/after 18Z. Thus, IFR
cigs and reduced vsbys will persist through much of the afternoon
Thursday before gradual improvements will be seen. SE winds 5-9kts
this afternoon will become VRB 5kts or less after 00Z, before
backing to the ENE around 5kts after 06Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  45  48  39 /   0  90  80  40
MLU  48  42  47  39 /   0  90  90  70
DEQ  47  35  45  31 /   0  10  30  20
TXK  47  40  44  35 /   0  50  60  30
ELD  47  37  43  32 /   0  70  80  50
TYR  52  44  48  37 /   0  70  70  20
GGG  50  42  48  36 /   0  90  80  40
LFK  50  45  52  39 /   0  90  80  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...15