532
FXUS64 KSHV 271735
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1135 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Dry, near-seasonable conditions will continue through
  Thanksgiving.

- The next rounds of rain return through this weekend into early
  next week.

- While uncertainty remains high, some low-end potential exists
  (< 20%-30%) for wintry precipitation by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Aloft, a relatively active synoptic pattern continues with
northwesterly flow behind longwave troughing that will shift east
over the Atlantic Ocean by the end of the week. This longwave
trough is currently transiting the Mississippi River valley and
quickly making its way towards the East Coast. In its wake, quasi-
zonal flow will gradually allow for steering perturbations across
the area embedded withing a series of troughs shifting across the
Intermountain West through the weekend into next week. Combined
with Pacific moisture and some cold air infiltration, long-range
guidance continues to indicate increasing potential for wintry
precipitation, most likely in the form of freezing rain. That
said, great uncertainty remains regarding the alignment of enough
cold air, moisture and lift for wintry precipitation, all of which
still only adds up to a 5-10% chance of occurrence at this time.
Temperatures will remain near-normal (maximums in the 60s,
minimums in the 40s) until Sunday as the next air mass is ushered
in with frontal passage to bring temperatures back below normal
into the first days of December (maximums in the 50s, minimums in
the 20s-30s at the coldest on Monday night). /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Skies are SKC or close to it and should stay that way through the
overnight hours. Some light high-level cloud coverage may return
late tomorrow morning with some mid-level moisture advection.
Winds will calm down through the day today and be almost calm
tonight. Despite the drop in winds speeds, fog development isn`t
expected at this time. /57/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 102 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  38  62  46 /   0   0   0  60
MLU  57  34  58  41 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  58  31  56  39 /   0   0   0  90
TXK  58  35  60  44 /   0   0   0  80
ELD  57  31  55  38 /   0   0   0  40
TYR  61  39  61  48 /   0   0   0  80
GGG  60  37  61  46 /   0   0   0  80
LFK  62  38  63  47 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...57