105
FXUS64 KSHV 111638
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1038 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1025 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

 - Southerly flow to return today with patchy fog possible across
   Deep East Texas and north Louisiana overnight.

 - A gradual warming trend will return by Friday, as southerly
   winds return ahead of our next cold front. This cold front will
   arrive by Saturday afternoon/evening, bringing slight rain
   chances and widespread freezing temperatures by Monday morning.

 - Rain chances will return by the middle portion of next week, as
   an upper trough moves across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1005 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Surface high centered across the region overnight beginning to
shift east with southerly winds returning areawide. Temperatures
this afternoon are forecast to climb into the lower 60s. With
northwest flow prevailing aloft, mostly clear skies expected
through this evening. Low-level moisture is expected to increase
across much of Deep East Texas and north Louisiana with low-
clouds and patchy fog possible near daybreak across these areas.
Latest high-res guidance suggests visibility reductions near 1/4sm
possible through late morning Friday.

A weak warm frontal boundary will linger across the heart of the
ArkLaTex on Friday with high temperatures ranging from the low to
mid 60s north of the boundary to the low to mid 70s across Deep
East Texas. A strong cold front will dive south across the region
on Saturday. As the cold front converges with the warmer gulf
airmass south of the weak warm front, enough moisture and
instability will be in place to generate showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly south of I-20 on Saturday afternoon and
evening.

Conditions to quickly improve overnight Saturday as cold high
pressure builds from the north in the wake of the cold front.
Temperatures on Saturday night to fall below freezing across
portions of southeast Oklahoma and south Arkansas. Arctic air to
continue to advect south across the region through Sunday with
highs ranging from the mid 30s across south Arkansas to around 50
across Deep East Texas. The most significant impacts of the
arctic airmass intrusion will occur on Monday morning as overnight
lows will range from the mid teens across south Arkansas to the
mid 20s elsewhere.

Surface high to shift east on Monday allowing for a gradual
warming trend with the onset of southerly flow. However, there
will still remain enough cold air in the wake of the departing
arctic airmass to allow for one more night of near freezing
temperatures across much of Arkansas and Louisiana.

A progressive weather pattern to continue into early next week as
rain chances increase on Tuesday evening into Wednesday as an
upper-trough exiting the Rockies moves into Texas. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

For the 11/12Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period for most of the airspace. Exceptions are mainly across the
Deep East Texas airspace as low cloud decks are anticipated from
12/06Z through the end of the period. /16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 545 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  47  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  60  42  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  59  37  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  62  43  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  59  40  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  63  47  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  63  44  70  47 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  65  46  74  53 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...16