767
FXUS64 KSHV 111144 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
544 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Quick rebound in temperatures through the rest of the week
   following one last cold morning.

 - Dry and breezy conditions will support fire danger concerns
   across portions of the ArkLaTex on Tuesday.

 - While rain prospects are non-existent for the majority of the
   period, the chance for showers and storms look to return by
   the end of the weekend, into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

One last morning of at or sub-freezing temperatures across the
region before we begin the quick rebound to what will feel like a
spring temperature profile. Deep troughing across the SE CONUS
will quickly shuffle east with upper-ridging wasting no time in
trying to fill in where it once stood. This will allow for
temperatures to quickly climb through the 70`s and into the 80`s
before the week is done. Overnight lows will follow a similar
regime with a transitions from the freezing lows to more milder
temperatures.

Looking to Tuesday specifically, the shift in the overall wind
direction to southerly will play a key role in seeing highs about
10-15 deg F warmer when compared to Monday. Though winds were
lower on Monday, a tighter pressure gradient on the western side
of the departing surface high, mainly across the western half of
the FA, will support breezy S/SW 10-15 mph winds, with gusts
between 20-25 mph. Mixing this with the dry soils and low RH
percentages in the 20`s and 30`s, is enough to warrant a Fire
Danger Statement. The timing of the product is from 9 AM until 11
PM, citing a period where wildfire initiation and growth will be
maximized. It is critical that all burn bans and statements are
respected, especially during this period.

By the end of the week, and into the weekend, eyes will turn to an
upper-level feature around the Four Corners Region of the CONUS
that will provide what looks to be our next crack at some
potentially beneficial rainfall. Compared to last night, TOA and
speed have become some of the bigger questions surrounding the
low. This will need to be closely monitored for multiple reasons
as not only will it dictate what periods of the forecast will be
impacted but also the probability of any severe component being
attached with this.

53

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the 11/12Z TAF period.
Periods of thin cirrus will continue to spill SE into portions of
NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/N LA through the day today, possibly lingering
through tonight. Meanwhile, increasing SSWrly low level winds may
yield a weak cu field into portions of Deep E TX (mainly E of LFK
over the Lower Toledo Bend Country) by mid and late afternoon,
diminishing by sunset. SSW winds will increase to 12-18kts by mid
and late morning, with gusts of 25+kts possible especially during
the afternoon. Winds will become S and diminish to 6-12kts after
00Z. /15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  52  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  63  46  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  64  40  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  49  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  62  45  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  68  53  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  67  50  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  69  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15