170
FXUS64 KSHV 150544
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

 - High pressure will continue to break down through this week
   across the Four State Region, allowing for near-normal
   temperatures by the end of the week.

 - Increased rain chances will slowly return to portions of the
   region by the middle of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Ridging will continue to break down across the Four State Region
through the beginning of this work week with chances of rain
increasing by the middle of the week as a result. Aloft, this is
also due to the beginning of a synoptic pattern shift where
troughing takes hold across more of the Great Plains. Downstream
flow into the area will gain a northwesterly component,
propagating enough vorticity/perturbations in this flow to enhance
convection after Wednesday. Medium and long-range guidance all
suggest a primarily diurnally driven convective pattern with some
lingering storms overnight by the end of the week. Altogether this
activity will allow for a reprieve from above-normal late summer
heat with temperature maximums in the low-to-mid 90s. /16/


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the 15/00z TAF period...VFR conditions will prevail overnight
with mid to high clouds continuing to stream over the area.
Afternoon CU will return tomorrow, with some isolated showers, and
possibly a thunderstorm or two, during the afternoon hours. This
could result in some brief reduced flight categories. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions with light winds. /20/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  72  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
MLU  96  71  96  69 /  10  10  20  10
DEQ  94  67  93  66 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  96  70  95  69 /  20  20  20  10
ELD  95  68  94  66 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  92  69  91  70 /  10  10  10   0
GGG  94  69  93  69 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  69  94  69 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20