138
FXUS64 KSHV 151908
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
208 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - Above average highs and warming lows will continue into the
   weekend under the ridge and in the absence of needed rainfall.

 - Saturday and Sunday will be the days some of that much needed
   rainfall will be moving into and across our Four-State area.

 -
 - Slightly cooler behind this cool front will bring highs down
   briefly with lows seeing the best change for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The upper level ridge core has peaked now and remains over the
Natural State for the short term with a drift to the SE for
Thursday and then setting up over the SE U.S. and mid Atlantic
states for Friday and Saturday. The surface high will be moving as
well under the ridge, shifting from the Great Lakes states into
New England and the mid Atlantic during this same time frame. This
will mean our winds will be shifting back to SE and S and
eventually SW ahead of the front for Saturday. Highs will
continue around mid 80s to 90 degrees, but lows will see the warm
up with 60s to even low 70s to start the weekend.

Along with the warmer air comes better moisture content and this
is the primary factor we have not seen lately. So pattern change
is underway for this lingering drought anyway. We will be see
another chance for rainfall by Tuesday as another air mass moves
our way. However, the first cool front will be arriving overnight
Saturday into Sunday with a 1020mb air mass with the bulk of rain.
We can look forward to a good cool down on our highs with NW
winds back for Sunday. And as always, the clearing skies will be
along for the new work week with more chilly widespread 50s for
lows, which is normal for mid to late October.

The chance for severe thunderstorms remains, but timing may help
decrease the coverage. The day 4 outlook from the SPC anticipates
a Slight Risk for much of our Four-State, and mainly for late
Saturday arrivals into SE OK and NE TX and the continued push to
the SE down I-49 during the overnight. The GFS and EWMWF are still
working on the best solution, but both are trending in the same
direction for needed rainfall during the more stable overnight
time frame.

As for rainfall totals, the WPC QPF outlook has better than 1"
totals possible along and east of I-49 with ERO risks just up a
bit farther to our NE. So, the chance for needed rainfall still
looks good for the overnight especially and then ending during
early Sunday and just 1/4 to 1/2" amounts over deep east Texas.
The secondary 1017mb airmass for Tuesday will have some moisture,
but mainly along and east of I-49 for the better numbers for this
additional rainfall expected. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

For the 15/18Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the
period once again as high pressure remains almost directly aloft
with some isolated FEW250 decks and light easterly surface winds.
/16/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  89  67  89 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  58  90  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  56  85  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  58  89  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  55  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  60  87  64  86 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  58  88  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  59  89  64  88 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16