644
FXUS64 KSHV 121812
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1212 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1027 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Milder temperatures will continue through the end of the work
   week with a warm weekend ahead.

 - Rain chances will be hard to come by until maybe the early to
   middle part of next week with the arrival of our next trough.

 - Wildfire concerns will continue through the forecast period
   with daytime/afternoon southerly wind gusts even with somewhat
   higher afternoon humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1027 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Pleasant...albeit dry conditions prevailing currently across the
Four State Region and those conditions will continue through the
remainder of the work week and into the upcoming weekend.

Broad upper troughing aross the Great Lakes area into New England
is countered by upper level ridging across the Intermountain West
currently. At the surface, southerly to southwesterly low level
winds prevailing across the Southern Plains into the Lower Miss
Valley which is of course a warming wind with temperatures
averaging some 10 to 15 degrees warmer at the Noon hour today
compared to 24 hours ago. Dewpoints have really responded as well
with values averaging some 20 to 30 degrees higher than this time
yesterday. If you like warm November temperatures, then this
forecast is for you because the warmer readings are here to stay
awhile as the upper ridge across the Intermountain West will
migrate eastward by the weekend, flattening out slightly as it
does. A very progressive trough will traverse the Central Plains
into the Ohio Valley this weekend and it will have a weak cold
front associated with it but the front will likely not have enough
strength to make it into even our northern most zones. In the
wake of this weak trough, upper ridging will continue to dominate
into early next week. Max temperatures this weekend across our
west and southwest half will likely flirt with the middle 80s
which is some 15 to 20 degrees above normal for the middle of
November with low temperatures running some 10 to 15 degrees above
normal as well.

There continues to be considerable discrepancies with long term
progs with the development and subsequent ejection of our next
Great Basin trough next week. The slower EC ensembles and
specifically, the EC-AIFS seems to be the preferred model or
models of choice with other operational models (including the
NBM) having to play catchup so to speak. All this to say while
small pops are currently in the forecast by Monday into Tuesday of
next week, would not be surprised to see these higher rain
chances get delayed even further into next week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

For the 12/18Z TAF period, VFR conditions prevail this afternoon
as a cu field continues to expand northward along much of the I-20
corridor in addition to some passing cirrus clouds associated with
a weak shortwave. With persistent southerly flow, some cumulus may
linger this evening and overnight with cigs likely dropping to low
VFR/MVFR at most sites between 09Z-12Z Thursday morning. Isolated
instances of patchy fog also cannot be ruled out, but will defer
to the next TAF cycle on any vsby restrictions given the lower
confidence for now. Otherwise, look for S/SW winds to generally
average between 6-12 kts with some occasional higher gusts this
afternoon before speeds drop off this evening and overnight.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1027 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  81  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  55  78  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  48  77  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  55  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  51  76  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  57  80  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  55  81  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  57  81  58  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19