947
FXUS64 KSHV 171146
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
646 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Mostly clear skies with above average highs will continue
   through Friday.

 - Showers will return to the area on Saturday with some severe
   weather potential during the afternoon and evening hours.

 - Briefly cooler conditions will follow this weekend`s system,
   with temperatures closer to fall-like hinted for later next
   week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The continued upper-level ridge will bring another dry day with
high temperatures firmly in the 80s. This ridge will begin to
decrease in amplitude and progress to the east through the day on
Friday, which will be followed by the system being monitored for
severe weather on Saturday.

A shortwave trough from the Intermountain West is expected to move
eastward through portions of the Southern Plains and the Ark-La-Tx
during the day on Saturday and into early Sunday morning. The
primary hazard looks to be damaging winds, but large hail and a
few tornadoes can`t be ruled out either. Some model solutions
display morning convection that would limit destabilization later
in the day. If this convection dissipates quickly, or never
initiates, the risk of hazards other than damaging winds becomes
more likely. Agreement on the timing of the trough`s movement
also remains uncertain, with early runs of the HRRR being
noticeably ahead of other models that are pushing off direct
impacts until the evening hours. While drought conditions have
begun to take hold of the region, WPC has outlined portions of the
region as being at Marginal Risk for flash and urban flooding
with this system on Saturday. At the time of writing, much of the
region looks like it will see less that 1" of rain. But rainfall
estimates look to get closer to, or possibly exceed, 1" for areas
east of I-49 by midday on Sunday. While these totals seem
underwhelming, these showers could have heavy rain rates that
bring enough water in a short enough time to create localized
flooding. This is especially true for more urban areas and low-
lying areas.

Significantly cooler temperatures will be on the coattails of the
outgoing front. Afternoon highs on Sunday look to be in the low to
mid 70s generally along and north of I-20, with areas south mostly
in the upper 70s. These gorgeous seasonal temperatures will give
way to another slight warm up through the week with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s through the week. Long-range models are also
hinting at a weak secondary cold front moving through the Ark-La-
Tx early Tuesday morning, but additional rain accumulation with it
looks to be slim at this time. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

For the 17/12Z TAF period, mostly VFR conditions continue this
morning except at KLFK where low stratus and patchy fog have
advected northward from the SE TX coast. As a result, IFR/LIFR
conditions will prevail at KLFK for the few hours of this TAF
period while sites along I-20 should maintain VFR status with
only scant coverage of lower clouds through mid morning. Cu field
will return by late morning through afternoon before decreasing
in coverage by 18/00Z. Light/variable winds this morning will
increase between 5-10 kts from the S/SE with brief higher gusts
possible in the afternoon across western terminals.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  69  89  62 /   0   0  50  60
MLU  91  65  90  63 /   0   0  40  80
DEQ  86  65  83  51 /   0  10  70  30
TXK  89  69  87  56 /   0  10  60  50
ELD  88  65  86  56 /   0   0  60  70
TYR  89  69  88  58 /  10  10  50  40
GGG  89  67  88  58 /  10  10  50  50
LFK  90  67  90  62 /  20   0  70  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19