174
FXUS64 KSHV 271208
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
608 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Dry, near-seasonable conditions will continue through
  Thanksgiving.

- The next rounds of rain return through this weekend into early
  next week.

- While uncertainty remains high, some low-end potential exists
  (< 20%-30%) for wintry precipitation by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1217 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Aloft, a relatively active synoptic pattern continues with
northwesterly flow behind longwave troughing that will shift east
over the Atlantic Ocean by the end of the week. This longwave
trough is currently transiting the Mississippi River valley and
quickly making its way towards the East Coast. In its wake, quasi-
zonal flow will gradually allow for steering perturbations across
the area embedded withing a series of troughs shifting across the
Intermountain West through the weekend into next week. Combined
with Pacific moisture and some cold air infiltration, long-range
guidance continues to indicate increasing potential for wintry
precipitation, most likely in the form of freezing rain. That
said, great uncertainty remains regarding the alignment of enough
cold air, moisture and lift for wintry precipitation, all of which
still only adds up to a 5-10% chance of occurrence at this time.
Temperatures will remain near-normal (maximums in the 60s,
minimums in the 40s) until Sunday as the next air mass is ushered
in with frontal passage to bring temperatures back below normal
into the first days of December (maximums in the 50s, minimums in
the 20s-30s at the coldest on Monday night). /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR this morning under a blanket of
middeck 09-12kft edging overhead with a short wave upper impulse.
Our SFC winds will be light and vary N-E around 03-07KT today. SKC
or a bit of cirrus during this afternoon with a frosty night in
store. Clouds increase again late Friday with showers overnight
and scattered thunderstorms Saturday and evening with an overnight
fropa gusting the NW winds once again. /24/


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 102 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  39  60  46 /   0   0   0  50
MLU  57  33  56  41 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  57  32  55  39 /   0   0   0  80
TXK  58  35  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ELD  56  31  54  38 /   0   0   0  30
TYR  61  40  60  48 /   0   0   0  80
GGG  60  36  60  45 /   0   0   0  70
LFK  63  38  62  46 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...24