317
FXUS64 KSHV 232356 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
556 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - One more dry day areawide today before we begin to see moisture
   returning late tonight in advance of our next storm system.

 - Still expecting excessive heavy rainfall and some severe
   weather to impact the region on Monday, continuing through at
   least Monday Night.

 - Colder air still poised to move into the region during the day
   Wednesday and through the end of the holiday week, with near
   freezing overnight low temperatures across our northern zones
   for Thursday and Friday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Despite the cloud cover over the area, expect another afternoon
of dry weather today, as upper level ridging remains over the
region. However, changes are coming soon. A vigorous closed upper
trough near the Four Corners region of the SW CONUS will become
positively tilted as it ejects into the Central Plains by this
evening. In response, the upper ridge will slide east of the
region, and the flow aloft will become southwesterly tonight.
This will bring a return of Pacific moisture into the area. At the
same time, the sfc winds will become southeasterly bringing an
increase in low-level gulf moisture back into the region. Short-
term progs continue to suggest that widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop west of I-35 in Texas and Oklahoma
ahead of the associated cold front with this system. Eventually,
this convection will slide eastward into portions of our forecast
zones near midnight tonight, increasing during the overnight
hours, as upper disturbances move ahead of the front along the
upper southwest flow. Current thinking is that the best chance for
precipitation will be in areas near and north of Interstate 30
corridor. This essentially includes extreme Northeast Texas,
McCurtain County in Oklahoma, and adjacent areas of Southwest
Arkansas. These are the same locations that received roughly 2 to
4 inches of rainfall a few days ago, which has us concerned about
some flooding potential. However, it has been so dry across the
region, and flood guidance suggests we can handle another 2 to 3
inches of rainfall. Despite this, it is tough to ignore those
recent rainfall totals. This has resulted in some discussion of
issuing a Flood Watch for these locations later this
afternoon/evening in anticipation of this system. So, continue to
monitor the forecast for potential updates. There also remains a
very marginal severe weather risk overnight into early Monday
morning with this lead elevated convection, with some hail
possible.

Things get very interesting as we move into the afternoon/evening
hours Monday, and possibly into the early morning hours on
Tuesday, as all hazards will be in play. The positively tilted
trough will continue to slide across the Central Plains, dragging
the associated cold front closer to our region. Ahead of this, the
recent cold front from a few days ago will rapidly return
northward as a warm front across our region. This warm sector will
help to destabilize the environment, with instability/CAPE and
shear values increasing, along with lapse rates. Ongoing showers
and thunderstorms will increase in intensity, with models
suggesting some semi-discrete cells could develop ahead of this
convection. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this with
a Slight risk for essentially all of our forecast zones near and
south of Interstate 30. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
of tornadoes will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also
remain a threat, as the Weather Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk for most of our forecast zones. But like we previously
discussed, the greatest flood threat will likely be in areas near
and north of I-30, as the remainder of the region has been much more
drier. Regardless, the flooding potential will need to be watch
areawide, as there is some model support for PWATs approaching
1.7in, which would be well above the 90th percentile for this time
of year. There is also the potential for convection to linger a bit
longer than originally expected, as progs are trying to develop a
low along the associated cold front in Central Arkansas, which would
slow the eastward progression of the front.

The associated cold front should finally sweep across the area,
bringing an end to the rainfall by Tuesday morning. On its heels, a
stronger cold front will move through the region by Wednesday
morning. Dry weather will remain, with much cooler conditions
expected for the middle and end of the Thanksgiving Holiday week.
Highs will top out in the 60s on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
Freezing temperatures will be possible, especially in our northern
zones on Thanksgiving and Black Friday mornings. By next weekend,
another upper trough is expected to dive southward across the
Intermountain west, yielding a return of a southwest flow aloft
pattern to the region. Disturbances will move along the flow,
resulting in rain chances returning across the area.

/20/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

We still have MVFR stratus layer sitting across northern and
northeastern zones, but only affecting TXK and ELD TAF sites
presently. We anticipate this layer to at least temporarily break
up later this evening, although warm air advection will bring back
in sub-VFR conditions due mainly to ceilings very late tonight
into early tomorrow morning at these sites. All other sites are
VFR currently, but as mentioned, MVFR cigs (and perhaps even some
temporary IFR cigs) will spread back in to most of the area
between 4 AM and 8 AM in the morning. A storm system approaching
quickly from the west late tonight into tomorrow will also start
bringing scattered showers and isolated storms into
TXK/TYR/LFK/GGG/ELD/SHV late tonight through mid morning tomorrow,
although the heavier rains and thunderstorms will likely only get
into GGG/TXK/TYR TAF sites tomorrow afternoon and this activity
will slowly move across those areas and LFK/SHV/MLU/ELD tomorrow
evening, which is just past this 24 hr TAF period. The greatest
potential for severe thunderstorms activity will be along and
south of the Interstate Twenty corridor later tomorrow afternoon
into tomorrow night and this could obviously affect some TAF sites
in that time frame. Otherwise, anticipate widespread and light
east surface winds currently to gradually veer around to
southeasterly tomorrow with sustained speeds in the 9 to 16 mph
range in most areas. /50/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Spotter activation will likely be needed Monday and Monday night
due to the threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  76  59  74 /  40  70 100  10
MLU  50  78  62  76 /   0  50 100  40
DEQ  49  61  53  68 /  80  90  50   0
TXK  53  68  57  70 /  60  90  80  10
ELD  47  69  59  71 /  20  80 100  10
TYR  58  75  54  71 /  40  90  60   0
GGG  55  76  57  72 /  40  90  90  10
LFK  57  80  59  76 /  10  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...50