248
FXUS64 KSJT 180604
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1204 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record high temperatures today.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday morning, peaking Thursday,
  before decreasing Friday. There`s a marginal to slight risk for
  excessive rainfall and flooding.

- There is a medium chance (40-60%) of at least 1 inch of rainfall
  across much of the area east of an Abilene to San Angelo line
  for Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through tonight)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The overall pattern we have seen over the past few days will begin
to gradually shift to a more active and wet pattern tonight into
Wednesday. The upper-level ridge that has dominated over the
region over the past few days will begin to slowly shift eastward
today. This will make way for embedded shortwave disturbances
associated with an upper-level low over Southern California eject
across West Central Texas as early as this evening. As a result,
we are expecting a gradual increase in cloud cover and moisture,
which will bring slightly cooler temperatures in comparison to
the past few days. There also remains a slight chance for a few
rain showers developing across our southern counties overnight
tonight into Wednesday. High temperatures today will range in the
upper 70s to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. The current forecast high for Abilene is 87, which
would tie the record for today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1204 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The well-advertised pattern change is on track to start on
Wednesday. A deep upper-level trough will dig into southern
California by Wednesday morning then progress eastward into west
Texas by Thursday night. An upper-level impulse will eject out of
the main trough on Wednesday as moisture and instability increases
to around 1000 J/kg throughout the day. Given the instability and
some upper- level support, hi-res models show that showers and
thunderstorms will start developing late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. As the low- level jet increases, some storms could become
strong to severe. Damaging wind gusts could occur in the more
intense storm cores as stronger winds are mixed down from the mid-
levels. SPC currently is carrying a Marginal Risk for severe
weather on Wednesday. Rain chances continue to ramp up Wednesday
night into Thursday as PWAT values increase to 1.31 and the column
becomes saturated. Models show a Pacific-based cold front pushing
into west central Texas with mid-level heights falling as the
main system approaches. Rain chances look to peak around 90% on
Thursday with the passage of a cold front and as the upper-level
low becomes negatively tilted. At this point, there is a medium
chance for 1-1.5 inches of rain in 48 hours ending Friday morning,
with low to medium chances of around 2 inches. Heavier amounts
could occur locally with stronger thunderstorms. WPC is carrying a
Marginal to Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Thursday for the
expected flood threat. As the system pushes eastward and
occludes, the dry slot should move over west central Texas and
bring rain to an end Thursday night.

After this system exits stage right, another system will be
developing over California for this weekend into early next week.
Models show this next system similarly digging southward into
northern Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then trekking eastward by
Sunday. The latest models are disagree on how quickly this next
system will push eastward and where it will track.  The GFS is the
faster solution that takes the low over the central Plains while the
Euro closes it off to some degree before pushing it straight into
central Texas. Regardless, ensembles show rain chances increasing
for Sunday and especially Monday.  The picture will likely become
much clearer after the first system passes.  For now, we`ll go with
low to medium rain chances for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Low clouds have started to develop to our southeast. They will
continue to push northwestward into our area, bringing MVFR and
IFR conditions. The lowest ceilings and visibilites will likely
be at KSOA. KSJT will be right on the border of where the low
clouds end, so the MVFR ceilings could be spotty. Patchy fog is
expected to develop overnight, potentially bringing lower
visibilities. Clouds will start to clear and lift in the late
morning and early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  63  80  63 /   0  10  40  70
San Angelo  83  60  79  59 /   0  10  50  80
Junction    84  60  82  60 /   0  10  40  70
Brownwood   85  59  82  60 /   0  10  40  70
Sweetwater  84  61  79  62 /   0  10  50  70
Ozona       79  62  75  60 /  10  10  50  80
Brady       82  62  81  62 /   0  10  40  70

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...AP