045
FXUS64 KSJT 021103
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
503 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Another cold front will move through the area on Wednesday
   knocking highs back down into the 40s for Thursday.

-  Low to medium chance (20-30%) for scattered showers on
   Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Clear skies and cold conditions are prevailing across west central
Texas this morning with temperatures around freezing.  This is due
to broad surface high pressure across Texas.  The surface high
should move eastward through the day and allow southwesterly winds
around 10 MPH to return.  As a result, temperatures should start to
warm up nicely to around 50 by noontime and around 60 for a high
this afternoon.  Southerly winds should persist overnight and a weak
disturbance aloft will bring in some extra clouds.  However, low
temperatures should still fall to the mid 40s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1243 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Cold front will be moving through the Big Country Wednesday
afternoon and should be south of I-20 by maximum heating time 2-3
PM. Temperatures in the Big Country should be in the lower to mid
60s with perhaps some 50s in Haskell and Throckmorton. To the south
of the front, from the Concho Valley and east to Coleman and
Brownwood, highs should be in the lower 70s...with southwest to west
winds ahead of the front.

Skies become cloudy Wednesday night with approach of an upper trough
out of New Mexico. There is weak lift over the front, mainly from
Sonora to Brownwood and southeast on Thursday. There could also be a
few sprinkles north in the Big Country Thursday morning, with
possibly a few flurries and sleet. Kept most of the wintery
potential in Haskell and Throckmorton counties...and this potential
is low at 20 percent or less. Do not expect any wintery
accumulations in Haskell and Throckmorton in any case and certainly
little or no impact. Main concern is that there may be precipitation
at all, as mid level moisture may not be sufficient. Coldest
temperatures in the saturated level is around -7 C and warm level is
around 2.5 C at 700 mb, so at least with the operational GFS model,
would be hard to get snow, though possibly a little sleet, as it
falls into the colder air near surface. No measurable precipitation
expected in the Big Country over all. Measurable rainfall amounts,
less than 1/10 inch, are mainly from Sonora to Brownwood and
southward, Thursday and Thursday night, where there will be some
lift over the cold front.

Skies gradually clear from northwest to southeast Friday with drier
west to northwest flow aloft. Winds return southwest Friday, then
west on Saturday as a surface low moves across Oklahoma and Red
River. Highs Saturday will be 65 to 70 degree range, with a cold
front Sunday bringing temperatures down around 5 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions expected with light winds this morning. Winds will
shift out of the south by 18Z and increase to around 10 MPH. After
00Z, winds should decrease to less than 5 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     59  46  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  62  42  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    64  39  73  36 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   56  37  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  61  45  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       60  38  69  36 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       58  42  71  36 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SK