


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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748 FXUS64 KSJT 161051 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 551 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Drought conditions will continue to worsen as well above normal temperatures combine with persistent dry conditions. - Elevated fire weather conditions this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure that was sitting across the region will still remain the dominant weather feature. However, both the GFS and ECMWF push the center of this high further off to the east. Then, a broader trough will start to develop across the western U.S. As this occurs, little change is expected in the weather throughout the short term portion of the forecast. Highs will still be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Forecast continues to look hot and dry into the weekend, with dry and closer to normal temperatures for next week. Upper level shortwave set to move across the Southern Plains for Friday and Friday night. Global models have continued to decrease POP chances, and this is reinforced by the CAMs that go out that far largely coming in dry as well. Will keep some very small POPs across the extreme eastern and northeast portions of the area but vast majority of the area will remain dry. Surface cold front is coming in a little slower this morning, with the front taking until well into Saturday before it can move into the area. This will slow the return of very dry post frontal air mass into the area and actually help keep afternoon humidity values up a little. Temperatures will be very warm however with stronger downslope southwest winds, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the area. Record high in Abilene for Saturday the 18th is only 91 degrees (1921) and this will be in considerable jeopardy (statistical data shows roughly a 75% chance of breaking the record). San Angelo`s record high is 97 degrees and highs are not likely to reach that. Delay of the front and the fact that the surface high shifts east very quickly means that the radiational cooling set up for Sunday morning is not nearly as impressive. Forecast lows have climbed in the model blends. After near normal temperatures on Sunday, Monday will be warmer again ahead of a stronger cold front, with highs in the 90s and will again need to watch for record highs. The stronger front arrives for Tuesday with the rest of the week likely seeing highs in the lower 80s and 50s, or something finally back closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will become gusty for the later part of the morning hours and into the afternoon. Expect winds to subside at sunset. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 87 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 88 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 87 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 88 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 84 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 86 61 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...41