261
FXUS64 KSJT 140025
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
725 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms on
  Sunday along and west of a Throckmorton to Sonora line.

- Otherwise, conditions will continue to be dry and warm through
  the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over
southern Arizona. A shortwave trough is rounding the base of the
upper low resulting in large scale forcing for ascent spreading
into west Texas. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are ongoing this afternoon across the Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos. Most of the CAMS weaken this activity as it tries to
move into our far western counties later this afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible on
Sunday as well, with the highest chances again across western
portions of the area. Otherwise, expect highs on Sunday in the
upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms that are possible across our
northwest counties during the late afternoon may linger into the
early evening hours, before dissipating by mid to late evening. Kept
slight chance PoPs for these locations during the evening hours.

Hot and mainly dry conditions are expected for the first half of
next week as an upper level ridge centered across northern Mexico
dominates our weather. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with overnight lows in the 60s. On Thursday, an upper
level trough will track across the Great Plains, weakening the
aforementioned upper level ridge across northern Mexico. This will
result in temperatures a degree or two cooler than what is forecast
on Wednesday. Also, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible,
as the trough passes to our north. Confidence is low that we will
see showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with most locations
remaining dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours with mid and
upper level clouds from convection to our west tonight, and some
scattered Cu at VFR heights again tomorrow. South to southeast
winds will persist through tonight, with a few gusts near 20 knots
early, eventually settling between 5 and 10 knots later tonight.
South to southeast winds will pick up again by mid/late morning
Sunday, along with a few gusts to near 20 knots. Low confidence in
coverage of TSRA tomorrow, so will leave out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  92  70  92 /   0  20  10  10
San Angelo  69  90  67  91 /  10  30  10  10
Junction    66  90  65  91 /   0  10   0   0
Brownwood   66  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  71  89  70  92 /  10  40  20  10
Ozona       68  87  67  89 /  10  30  10  10
Brady       66  89  67  90 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...20