838
FXUS64 KSJT 221929
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
129 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather expected today.

- Another round of thunderstorms and the potential for heavy
  rainfall is expected from Sunday through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Highs this afternoon will be near seasonal normals, in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Fairly light winds are also forecast, resulting in a
pleasant Saturday afternoon. By this evening, an upper level low
across northern Mexico will track northeast into Arizona. Although
an isolated shower is possible after midnight, mostly dry conditions
are forecast overnight. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

The aforementioned upper level low is forecast to track toward the
Four Corners region by afternoon. Ahead of this system, surface
moisture is forecast to quickly increase across the forecast area
with dewpoints climbing into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Scattered to
numerous showers are forecast to develop by mid to late morning,
with the highest rain chances across the northern half of the area.
Although a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during
the afternoon, the higher threat for severe weather will occur
during the evening and overnight hours. Highs on Sunday will be in
the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The previously mentioned low pressure system will continue moving
across the region on Sunday night. As it continues to move east, a
frontal boundary will serve as a focal point for thunderstorm
development. Chances are high (80-90%) that we will see
thunderstorms Sunday night. The Storm Prediction Center has
placed most of our area in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather
through Monday morning. Large hail (up to 1" diameter) will be the
main hazard with any severe thunderstorms that do develop. Any
cells that become severe should be isolated and remain limited in
duration (short lived). Otherwise, we will also have to contend
with potentially heavy rainfall.  Areas across the Concho Valley
and Big Country have a high (75-85%) chance for seeing at least 1"
of rainfall. This will leave us with a Slight Risk (15 to 40%
chance) of seeing excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding on
Sunday night and Monday morning. Areas that have already seen
previous rainfall will be most at risk of seeing flood related
concerns. Please make sure to have multiple ways to receive any
warnings that may be issued during this time frame.

Otherwise, another strong cold front may move through on Wednesday
morning. This could leave high temperatures in the 50s for
Wednesday afternoon. Some low lying areas may be around 30-33
degrees Thanksgiving morning. For Thanksgiving Day, dry conditions
with highs in the low to mid 60s are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Light winds are forecast to continue through the next 24 hours.
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Stratus is
forecast to develop across the Edwards Plateau Sunday morning,
then spread across the area through the day. Initially MVFR
ceilings are expected, but ceilings should slowly lower into the
IFR category by late morning or early afternoon. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are forecast to develop by late morning or
early afternoon, but left any mention out of the forecast at this
time, since this is at the very end of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     47  67  56  73 /   0  80 100  40
San Angelo  46  67  55  73 /  10  70  90  40
Junction    48  70  57  75 /  10  50  60  80
Brownwood   44  68  55  73 /   0  50  90  80
Sweetwater  49  64  55  71 /   0  80  90  20
Ozona       51  65  57  72 /  10  50  80  30
Brady       47  67  57  71 /  10  40  80  80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Daniels