656
FXUS64 KSJT 231155
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
555 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Rain chances will increase later today into tonight, with the
   potential for heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe storms
   across the area.

- Cooler temperatures expected for Wednesday, with highs in the
  50s and lows in the 30s on Thanksgiving morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A closed upper level low, currently over Arizona, will lift
northeast into eastern Colorado by early this evening. Ahead of
this system, low and mid level moisture will increase across the
area, with a corresponding increase in cloud cover today. Some
light showers will be possible primarily across western sections
this morning, then rain chances will increase this afternoon and
especially this evening and overnight, as large scale ascent
increases and a Pacific front/dryline pushes east across the area.
The main threats with this system will be heavy rainfall and the
potential for strong to severe storms. While a few strong to
severe storms will be possible later this afternoon, the greatest
threat for severe storms will be this evening and overnight as
shear increases. However, not looking at a significant severe
threat and any storms that do become strong to severe should be
rather short lived. The primary hazard will be large hail
(primarily up to 1 inch in diameter).

In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall will also be a
concern with the heaviest rainfall amounts expected from the
Concho Valley north into the Big Country. Rainfall amounts between
1 and 2 inches will be possible across this area, with locally
higher amounts possible. There is a slight risk (15 to 40 percent
chance) of seeing excessive rainfall amounts that could lead to
some flooding concerns. As for temperatures, expect cooler
conditions today due to abundant cloud cover, with highs in the
mid and upper 60s. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours
mainly across our southeastern counties. The bulk of the precipitation
should exit our area by the mid to late afternoon. Dry weather is
then expected through Friday. There is a low end chance of rain on
Saturday (20-30%) as a shortwave trough emerges out of the Big
Bend and swings eastward across the state. Higher rain chances
look to remain to our east but will keep an eye on this over the
next several days. Otherwise, the main story will be a cold front
moving into our area for the middle of the week. This will result
in much cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Highs will be in the 50s
and 60s, with lows on Thanksgiving morning in the lower to mid
30s. Thanksgiving Day looks pleasant, with highs in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Currently seeing VFR conditions over most of the terminals early
this morning, except KSOA where MVFR ceilings have developed.
An upper level storm system will affect the area the next 24
hours, with ceilings expected to lower to MVFR today and IFR this
evening/overnight. A few showers and isolated storms will be
possible later this morning and afternoon, but the better coverage
of showers/storms is expected this evening and overnight. Will
maintain PROB30 groups this forecast cycle and watch for trends as
the day progresses. Outside of convection, expect light southeast
winds for much of the period, with winds veering to the southwest
at KABI and KSJT towards daybreak Monday as a dryline/Pacific
front moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  57  73  45 /  80  90  40   0
San Angelo  68  56  73  42 /  70  90  40   0
Junction    71  57  74  41 /  30  50  70   0
Brownwood   68  56  73  43 /  60  90  80   0
Sweetwater  65  56  72  46 /  80  80  20   0
Ozona       66  58  72  43 /  60  80  30   0
Brady       66  58  71  46 /  50  80  80   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24