267
FXUS64 KSJT 231716
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1116 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Rain chances will increase later today into tonight, with the
   potential for heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe storms
   across the area.

-  A Flood Watch is in effect for the Concho Valley and much of
   the Heartland and Big Country from 6 PM today through 8 AM
   Monday.

- Cooler temperatures expected for Wednesday, with highs in the
  50s and lows in the 30s on Thanksgiving morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A closed upper level low, currently over Arizona, will lift
northeast into eastern Colorado by early this evening. Ahead of
this system, low and mid level moisture will increase across the
area, with a corresponding increase in cloud cover today. Some
light showers will be possible primarily across western sections
this morning, then rain chances will increase this afternoon and
especially this evening and overnight, as large scale ascent
increases and a Pacific front/dryline pushes east across the area.
The main threats with this system will be heavy rainfall and the
potential for strong to severe storms. While a few strong to
severe storms will be possible later this afternoon, the greatest
threat for severe storms will be this evening and overnight as
shear increases. However, not looking at a significant severe
threat and any storms that do become strong to severe should be
rather short lived. The primary hazard will be large hail
(primarily up to 1 inch in diameter).

In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall will also be a
concern with the heaviest rainfall amounts expected from the
Concho Valley north into the Big Country. Rainfall amounts between
1 and 2 inches will be possible across this area, with locally
higher amounts possible. There is a slight risk (15 to 40 percent
chance) of seeing excessive rainfall amounts that could lead to
some flooding concerns. As for temperatures, expect cooler
conditions today due to abundant cloud cover, with highs in the
mid and upper 60s. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 1245 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours
mainly across our southeastern counties. The bulk of the precipitation
should exit our area by the mid to late afternoon. Dry weather is
then expected through Friday. There is a low end chance of rain on
Saturday (20-30%) as a shortwave trough emerges out of the Big
Bend and swings eastward across the state. Higher rain chances
look to remain to our east but will keep an eye on this over the
next several days. Otherwise, the main story will be a cold front
moving into our area for the middle of the week. This will result
in much cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Highs will be in the 50s
and 60s, with lows on Thanksgiving morning in the lower to mid
30s. Thanksgiving Day looks pleasant, with highs in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

MVFR conditions are occurring at all sites and expect a gradual
decrease in ceilings through the day, with IFR ceilings
developing at most sites by later this afternoon and overnight.
Expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,
especially at KABI. Showers and thunderstorms will increase this
evening and into the overnight hours, especially at KABI and KSJT.
Hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain is possible within any
thunderstorms. Expect most of this activity to be east of the TAF
sites by mid morning Monday. Ceilings will gradually improve by
mid to late morning Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  57  73  46 /  80  90  30   0
San Angelo  68  57  73  42 /  50  90  40   0
Junction    71  58  75  42 /  30  50  70   0
Brownwood   68  55  73  43 /  40 100  80   0
Sweetwater  66  55  72  46 /  80  90  10   0
Ozona       66  58  72  43 /  40  80  30   0
Brady       66  59  71  45 /  30  80  80   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Monday morning
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Daniels