739
FXUS64 KSJT 261742
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1142 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Pleasant weather is expected Thanksgiving Day with highs in the
   upper 50s to mid 60s.

-  Low chances of showers and thunderstorms return Friday into
   the upcoming weekend.

-  Much colder temperatures and a low chance of light wintry mix
   in the Big Country early next week.

-  Stronger front arrives Saturday and will bring much colder
   conditions for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Cooler and slightly below normal temperatures are expected to
persist through this evening and into Thanksgiving morning in the
wake of a cold front tracking through the region today. Overnight
lows are expected to fall into the mid to upper 30s, with some of
the usual low-lying areas and northern portions of the Big
Country seeing the coolest overnight lows tonight. Afternoon high
temperatures tomorrow will struggle to make it into the upper 50s
to mid 60s, which gets us closer to normal high temperatures for
this time of year (mid 60s). Winds are expected to be light and
easterly this evening and gradually shifting to the south to
southeast by Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Still no answers for the longer term portion of the forecast with
regards to how cold, how long, and whether we see any freezing
precipitation across the area. No answers, but trend has been
colder with the last few runs. Latest AI runs of the ECMWF and GFS
show highs on Sunday and Monday not much above the 40 degree mark
across the Big Country and in the low/mid 40s farther south. Lows
showing temperatures right around freezing for most areas. This
is a littler colder than the latest NBM and thus have trended down
high a few degrees in the forecast. Better idea on temperature
will come over the next few days when we start to see some data
from the NAM and the RRFS start to arrive, with the NAM almost
always handling these shallow cold air masses better.

Precipitation wise, models showing 2 shortwaves set to approach
the area. The first arrives Saturday into Sunday and will help
generate some scattered showers and storms across the area.
Nothing as widespread or as heavy as the last few events, but
enough to produce some scattered POPs in the forecast. Second
shortwave will arrive early/mid next week and this is when it
gets more problematic. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights may
be at or below freezing for portions of the area. Lift from the
shortwave and any isentropic lift over the colds front may be
enough to produce areas of light precip over the cold air mass.
Some potential of some light freezing rain developing across the
area, with some of the probabilistic data showing roughly a 20%
or less chance of having both measurable precipitation and below
freezing temperatures at the same time. Will start to carry some
chance of freezing rain in the forecast, but will limit chances
and areas as much as possible until the uncertainty in the
forecast can decrease some. One thing about any freezing rain
forecast, is that impacts may be limited by the very warm ground
temperatures.

Do feel compelled to mention that the uncertainty in the forecast
is very large. For example, if the front comes in on the colder
side, this may well limit available moisture and limit any chance
for wintery precipitation. Vice versa, if the front isn`t as
strong, precipitation chances may increase with much better
moisture in place. All this to say that until we get a better
feel on the strength of the cold front and what low level
temperatures look like, the forecast will continue to have as many
questions as answers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the next
24 hours, with light easterly winds gradually shifting to south to
southeast by Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     38  63  44  61 /   0   0   0  20
San Angelo  37  65  45  62 /   0   0   0  20
Junction    36  66  45  63 /   0   0   0  30
Brownwood   35  62  41  61 /   0   0   0  20
Sweetwater  38  63  45  61 /   0   0   0  30
Ozona       38  66  47  59 /   0   0   0  30
Brady       38  60  45  60 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...TP