Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
086 FXUS65 KSLC 182242 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 342 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers will continue across southern UT this afternoon and overnight after a brief lull this evening. Valley rain and mountain snow are expected, with snow levels around 8000ft. && .SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/5AM Thursday)...The southern Utah radar shows scattered showers this afternoon well ahead of an approaching closed low currently circulating over the Los Angeles area. Despite sufficient upper-level diffluence and moisture, precipitation observations so far have come in on the lower end, perhaps due to overall limited flow and thus less orographic enhancement across the southern mountains. Another potential explanation is perhaps some mid-level dry air that can somewhat be seen on satellite...especially across southeastern Utah. Scattered showers are likely to continue through the remainder of the afternoon, with high-res guidance favoring a lull this evening between roughly 7PM-midnight. Another round of heavier precipitation is expected overnight across southern Utah, particularly further west, before becoming more showery in nature during the afternoon. There is some disagreement among high-res guidance with the coverage of precipitation on Wednesday night, which may end up being a bit lower than currently forecast. Snow levels will not change much over the short-term period aside from maybe a subtle decrease across the south; with 700-mb temperatures around -2C to -3C, snow levels around 8000ft are anticipated. Mountain QPF totals have been reduced with the latest forecast package, with another 0.50-0.75" QPF or another 3-6" of snow still to come for the southern mountains through Wednesday evening. In the valleys, expect a bit less, around 0.10-0.25" of rain. Finally, across areas further north, any QPF will be very minimal, likely less than 0.10". .LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday)...There is good model agreement that the closed low currently forecast to be centered around the southern Utah border will weaken and slowly migrate eastward on Thursday. This positioning would favor a moist, unstable environment along the southern Utah mountains, potentially extending northward along the highest terrain. If the system exits more quickly, precipitation may favor the eastern region of the CWA as moisture wraps northward and eastward. Models are coming into better alignment that the next low will dive well south of the CWA. This track, while discouraging its own contribution to any potential precipitation on Friday, may produce a minor Fujiwara effect, dancing with the outgoing low to maintain the threat of snow showers in the southern third of Utah through early afternoon. A dry easterly flow aloft will quickly shunt any remaining moisture well to the south of the CWA for the weekend, allowing a very slow bump in afternoon temps, though the dissipation of clouds will result in colder night/early morning temps. There remains considerable uncertainty regarding the upper air pattern into next week, with a few global models hinting at a rather cold system dropping into the northern CWA around midweek. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will be maintained over the KSLC terminal through the valid TAF period with cloud heights lowering through the overnight hours to around 5kft AGL by early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, winds will remain light and out of the north through around 03-04Z, reverting back to a southerly drainage flow thereafter. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...For the lower elevation terminals across southern Utah and all terminals across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Rain showers are anticipated through the overnight hours for southwest Utah, and are likely to persist into the morning hours. MVFR to IFR conditions are anticipated in the higher elevation terminals (above 7,800ft) due to light snowfall through the overnight and early morning hours. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for UTZ125. WY...None. && $$ Cunningham/Verzella/Webber For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity