Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
887 FXUS65 KSLC 242247 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 346 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A largely dry cold front will graze northern Utah and southwest Wyoming through early Tuesday, bringing overall cooler temperatures to the northern area for Tuesday. High pressure dominates much of the week ahead, with potential for a winter storm by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...An upper trough is currently moving across western Montana at this time, tracking towards northeast Wyoming, with Utah remaining under a northwesterly flow aloft. Some mid and high clouds are noted across northern Utah. Most of the fog/stratus from this morning has cleared out, allowing temperatures to trend warmer compared to yesterday across northern Utah. A weak cold front will cross northern Utah late this afternoon into this evening before shifting into southern Utah late tonight. Temperatures at H7 will cool from near -2 to -3C across northern Utah at 12z this morning to between -6 to -9C by 12z tomorrow morning. This should be enough to substantially weaken valley inversions, which will in turn significantly diminish chances of a return of fog and stratus tonight. Little in the way of moisture is associated with the cold front. At best, will see some spotty light precipitation, mainly over the northern Utah mountains, through this evening. Cooler air will settle into the area for tomorrow behind the cold front. This will bring afternoon maxes closer to climatological normals compared to maxes around 5 degrees warmer than climo today. A gradual warming trend can then be expected for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds into the area. Dry conditions can be expected during this time. Models are still on board for a more active period for the weekend and into next week as a series of storm systems impact the western CONUS. However, significant model spread remains in place, with ensemble members showing the first couple of storms as anywhere from open-wave troughs dropping in from the north to various degrees of a split-flow solution. This will affect timing and precipitation amounts. With the open-wave solution, precipitation could begin as early as Friday afternoon, with the second storm potentially dropping in late Saturday into Sunday. This solution will also tend to be a bit drier, given more of a continental airmass, and favor northern Utah more. The split-flow solution will likely be slower to arrive and potentially linger into Monday. However, it may tap more moisture and result in greater amounts of precipitation (but favoring southern Utah a bit more). Cluster analysis of ensemble members lean slightly (~55%) towards the open-wave solution. Precipitation spreads remain rather large, with the NBM 25th percentile of precipitation amounts in both the northern and southern mountains generally around 0.1 inch or less with a 75th percentile of 0.75 inches or greater for the period Saturday through Monday. However, one thing that the models are more consistent with is that it will be colder, especially Sunday when snow levels could reach the valley floors. && .AVIATION...KSLC...Light northwesterly winds in place are expected to hold through 09-10z in wake of a weak cold frontal passage. Outside of periodic mountain obscuration through this evening, VFR conditions are expected to hold for this valid TAF period. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Passage of a weak cold front across northern portions of the airspace will continue to aid erosion of low level inversions, allowing prevailing VFR conditions to dominate this valid TAF period. In large winds will remain light, though periodic gusts up to 25 mph will remain likely across southwest Wyoming through 01-02z. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Cheng/Merrill For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity