047
FXUS65 KSLC 261052
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
352 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild conditions are expected to continue
through at least Thursday with the pattern breaking down
thereafter. A trough will pass through at least a portion of Utah
and southwest Wyoming by the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures
and a potential shot of precipitation. Thereafter, an active storm
track looks to remain in place through the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level moisture spreading across the CWA on the
eastern periphery of a building ridge has brought a notable veil
of high level cloud cover across the CWA this morning, helping to
limit the amount of cooling seen on an already cold morning across
much of the CWA. Thin high level cloud cover will remain in place
through the day today as this upper level moisture remains in
place, primarily across the northern half of Utah and southwest
Wyoming.

Through at least Thursday, dry and mild conditions will remain in
place across the CWA as a ridge of high pressure establishes over
the western U.S. Overhead temperatures will gradually rise through
Thursday, with highs already creeping above average for much of
the area today. By Thursday, expect high temperatures up to 10-15
degrees above average for this time of year. Additional warming is
anticipated across southwest Utah on Friday before the next
area-wide cooldown commences as a broad trough sweeps through the
region.

Although there is still generally low confidence in the evolution
of our next potential weekend storm system, the past 24 hours
has shown been a significant shift in model consensus.
Specifically, more ensemble members (around 80%) are shifting
toward an open wave trough which would favor a more progressive
storm track over Utah and southwest Wyoming. That said, there are
still around 20% of ensemble members that maintain a cutoff low
solution. As a more progressive storm track has become favored,
precipitation potential has gone down significantly. Previously,
10th to 90th percentile forecasts for the mountainous terrain
ranged from 0 to 1.5 inches of SWE. That same range has now
dropped to 0 to 0.75 inches. For valley areas, precipitation
totals through Monday morning range from 0 to 0.4 inches in the
west and 0 to around 0.25 for the eastern valleys. Snowfall for
valleys is still very much on the table, but whether or not we
achieve temperatures cold enough to produce valley snowfall
depends on the overall depth of the trough. Only around 30% of
total guidance is supportive of deep enough trough to do such. It
is likely that within that 30% of guidance, there is more
uncertainty with moisture availability as valley snowfall is not
supported until the 90th percentile of NBM output.

Even if this weekend storm becomes a bust, there is still model
agreement that the pattern will remain somewhat active through the
middle of next week. So long as an upstream ridge in the Gulf of
Alaska remains in place, cold air will be displaced from western
Canada. As such, ensemble guidance does support another midweek
trough... though details are just as uncertain as the initial
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Light southeast winds will transition to
northwest around 19Z. Scattered to broken clouds through then will
decrease, with few or scattered clouds after 19Z. Light northwest
winds will transition southeast around 03Z.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Light winds will prevail for
most places, with west to northwest winds gusting around 25 knots in
southwest Wyoming and far northeast Utah from 18-00Z. Clouds will
generally decrease from broken to scattered through 19Z, with few to
scattered clouds after 19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Webber
AVIATION...Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity