Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
983 FXUS65 KSLC 132254 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 354 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to depart as a cutoff system approaches. This system will lift through Saturday into Monday and bring widespread precipitation, including accumulating mountain snow. Another system appears poised to move in soon thereafter early next week, but uncertainty on details remains high at this time. && Key Points: - High pressure will depart and give way to a cooler and more active weather period characterized by a series of storms. Modestly gusty daytime winds will persist through Friday ahead of this active period. - A fairly moisture rich cutoff low will eject through the region Saturday into early Monday. This will bring cooler temperatures, widespread precipitation, and accumulating snow particularly above 8000 feet. - Models support another system moving in early next week. While a fair deal of uncertainty is noted in the exact evolution and specific details, this system will have more favorable odds for further lowered snow levels and more substantial mountain snow accumulations. .DISCUSSION...Mid level ridge axis is continuing to shift east through the Rockies today as a low gradually cuts off along the Pacific coast. Deep southwesterly flow overhead remains enhanced as a result, and this is helping to drive breezy conditions with very mild (to locally record breaking) temperatures. Moisture will increase Friday on into Saturday as this cutoff low slowly advances inland. Afternoon temperatures Friday will fall several degrees in comparison to that of Thursday`s, but even with increased cloud cover we should see enough mixing to yield high marks around 5-15F above climatological normal. Given it is only a modest increase to moisture, and primarily in the mid to upper levels, will only see some low end isolated precipitation chances across the area Friday into early Saturday. The pattern quickly becomes more active as the cutoff low ejects through the region later Saturday on through early Monday. Despite the cutoff nature to this low, its orientation and trajectory actually result in it carrying a fairly impressive amount of moisture. IVT is well above the 90th percentile, and mean ensemble PWAT values sit in the 200-250% of normal range. On the warmer side of the system later Saturday, may see a few pockets of low end instability yield some convective elements to the increasingly widespread precipitation. Otherwise, will see precipitation become fairly widespread with these elevated chances lingering into Monday before the low departs. Snow levels will initially be around 9500 to 10000 feet Saturday, falling to 7000 to 7500 feet by early Monday. In comparison to previous forecasts, it appears it has trended a bit wetter overall for southern Utah, and especially southwest Utah. Median QPF amounts carry pretty widespread 0.40" to 0.90" liquid amounts, pushing to 1.25" to 2.00" for higher terrain. Further north the forecast has not shifted significantly, with still roughly 0.10" to 0.40" for many central/northern valleys, and around 0.50" to 1.00" for mountains. Given the gradual decrease in snow levels, snow accumulation will become quite limited below around 8000 feet or so. Above that however, forecast carries a general 3" to 8" with locally up to 12" or so in favored areas around the Tushar Range. The forecast remains uncertain moving into early next week, but the general model consensus continues to carry some sort of system quickly deepening into the western US behind the ejecting cutoff. Most of this uncertainty continues to be around whether this next system becomes yet another cutoff itself (~35% of ensemble members) or moves through as a more progressive open wave (~65% of ensemble members). In the cutoff scenario, the tap of cold air would quickly become more limited and result in another more mild system. In the open wave scenario, the tap of cold air would remain intact and support much lower snow levels and potentially even allow for some snow to mix in to lower elevations. In both scenarios so far models support sufficient moisture to maintain elevated precipitation chances and an overall active period, but the colder scenario would have potential to bring more substantial and impactful snow totals to higher elevations. Unfortunately given the spread among individual models and ensemble members, QPF/snow is difficult to quantify at this time. That said, this still remains a system to keep an eye on and watch how it ultimately trends. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry conditions will continue with high level clouds increasing. Gusty southerly winds will remain through the period with winds decreasing slightly overnight. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Dry conditions will continue with mid to high level clouds increasing. Gusty southerly winds will remain through the period with winds decreasing slightly overnight. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Warthen AVIATION...Mahan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity