Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
194 FXUS65 KSLC 131057 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 357 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty southwesterly winds are expected today into early Friday. Otherwise, dry conditions continue through Saturday before a weather system brings chances for valley rain and high elevation snow late Saturday into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Key Points: - Gusty southwesterly winds expected areawide today into early Friday as a trough deepens along the west coast. - Dry conditions to persist through Saturday before a closed low tracks across the area late Saturday through Sunday, bringing much cooler and wetter conditions areawide. - A progressive pattern continues Monday onward, with additional systems that may bring continued unsettled weather to the region, though considerable uncertainty exists at this time. Today, the forecast area will find itself wedged between a longwave ridge centered across the Rockies and a trough deepening off the west coast. Southwesterly flow aloft is expected to gradually increase through the remainder of the day today as a result, with H7 winds peaking around 30-35 kts early Friday before tapering thereafter. Gusty southwesterly winds are expected to mix down to valley levels by this afternoon, mainly across the northern and western portions of Utah, where widespread gusts in the 20-30 mph range are likely. Winds will remain elevated overnight, before gradually tapering through the remainder of the day Friday. Chances for precipitation on Friday continue to dwindle with most recent guidance. The aforementioned trough is expected to phase into a closed low off the coast of southern California, with its positioning too far west to bring enough moisture for widespread shower activity on Friday. As such, precipitation totals look little to none, with best chances over far southwest Utah where a few isolated showers may catch a few isolated showers on the fringes of the main moisture transport. Dry conditions will kick off the day once again on Saturday before the closed low nudges inland late Saturday. Ensembles are in good agreement on this low lifting northeastward into our region on Sunday, resulting in a more substantial increase in moisture availability across the region, in addition to much cooler temperatures. Precipitation is expected to move in from the southwest late Saturday, becoming widespread across the forecast area on Sunday, before tapering early Monday as the low exits eastward. Most recent forecast guidance has prompted an increase in storm totals across far southwest Utah, with the current forecast indicating 0.5-0.75" for lower elevations across the area and 0.75-1.25" for most southwest Utah mountains. Lower storm totals are expected across northern Utah, with 0.10"-0.40" generally for valley locations and 0.50-1.00" inches for central and northern mountains. Warm antecedent conditions will result in snow levels starting around 9500-10000 feet at the onset of precipitation late Saturday/early Sunday, dropping to around 7500 feet late Sunday. As a result, snow accumulation will be heavily elevation-dependent. There is lower confidence in the forecast Monday onward as another trough moves in on the heels of the exiting low. Ensembles show quite a bit of spread in the progression of this trough, with one scenario (currently around 70% of members) showing another splitting trough with a closed low diving too far south to bring substantial precipitation to the region. The other 30% show this trough remaining intact and sweeping eastward across the forecast area through Wednesday. This pattern would be more supportive of continued cooling and additional chances for widespread precipitation. Will continue to monitor as we get closer to this event for finer details. && .AVIATION...KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions throughout the day with some high clouds. Southerly winds will become gusty during the afternoon hours. There is a 30 percent chance of a late wind shift to the northwest, sometime between 21Z and 23Z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see VFR conditions throughout the day with some high clouds. Southerly flow will increase by the afternoon, resulting in some breezy conditions in wind prone areas. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Whitlam AVIATION...Traphagan For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity