169
FXUS65 KSLC 241114
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
414 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Areas of low stratus and fog will burn off through the
morning today. A largely dry cold front will graze northern Utah/
southwest Wyoming today through early Tuesday, bringing overall
cooler temperature to the northern area by Tuesday. High pressure
dominates much of the week ahead, with potential for a winter
storm by the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Early morning satellite imagery reveals a thin veil
of clouds tracking across northern Utah and southwest Wyoming
alongside an area of lower clouds pushing into far northwest Utah
as a trough begins to move across the Northwest region. At the
surface, a few areas of low stratus and fog are noted across
northern Utah, but fog/ low stratus is nowhere near as widespread
as compared to 24 hours ago. Areas of fog and low stratus are
expected to burn off through the morning hours as solar heating
occurs.

Over the next 12-24 hours, the aforementioned trough will progress
to our north with a stout cold front moving across the northern
Rockies region, with a portion of the front moving into the
northern area. While no significant or impactful surface cold
frontal boundary is expected to move across northern Utah, daytime
highs are expected to drop by around 5-7 degrees across the
northern area, with very little change expected across southern
Utah. The more noteworthy influence this colder airmass may have
is its potential to relieve valley areas of shallow inversions.
Current model analysis supports an expansion of the boundary layer
above ridgetops by the afternoon hours, which will help to
ventilate the lower elevations. That said, there is a suite of
guidance (i.e. NAM) that maintains a mixed layer that falls below
higher ridgetops... keeping a chance for valley inversions to
persist. For specifics on air quality forecasts visit
air.utah.gov.

Unfortunately, this front will be largely moisture starved across
northern Utah and southwest Wyoming as moisture is only expected
to increase over the area in the lower levels. At best, the
northern Utah mountains may end up with upwards of around an inch
of snow with all other areas staying dry through much of the
upcoming week.

Following the grazing front, a ridge of high pressure is expected
to reestablish across the eastern Great Basin region, allowing
conditions to stabilize once again and valley inversions to
strengthen. Dry conditions are expected through at least Thursday
as this ridge remains the dominant weather feature.

Looking toward the end of the week there is generally good model
agreement on the ridge retrograding into the Gulf of Alaska,
extending into the Yukon and Northwest Territories of Canada. What
this will eventually do is dislodge a mass of cold air over a
portion of the western U.S. There is agreement on a trough
developing over the region by the weekend, however, the specifics
of how this unfolds are still uncertain. If the past has
anything to say about the future, there is a very real possibility
that this potential trough breaks off into a cutoff low over the
western U.S., reducing the likelihood of a significant cold
airmass. Currently, about 60% of ensemble members are favoring
something that resembles an open wave trough over the western U.S.
by Saturday. Come Sunday, it`s nearly a 50/50 split between an
open wave vs closed low.

What does this mean for us? Precip chances!.. in most solutions.
How much? It depends. If the pattern becomes more progressive
(i.e. open wave) then the period of precipitation will be shorter
than a less progressive (closed low) pattern. The areas containing
the most spread (10th to 90th percentile) in precipitation exist
across northern Utah (think Nephi northward) and southern Utah
(roughly Beaver southward). For northern Utah, model QPF ranges
from near nothing to upwards off 1.2 inches. For southern Utah the
range is similar. Each extreme side of the forecast favors
different solutions: higher end across northern Utah/ lower end
across southern Utah likely favors a more progressive pattern
while the opposite is true for a closed low system.

Big picture right now is that the late week pattern is still too
uncertain to make any definitive calls. Trends will favor
cooler temperatures through the weekend alongside potential
(30-40%) for wet weather. How widespread precipitation may become
and how much each area gets will become more clear as we progress
through the week.


&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...Patchy fog will cause conditions to vary from
VFR to MVFR through 17Z. Light southeast winds will transition to
northwest around 17Z. The cold front bringing the change in wind
direction will clear out valley inversions, with light northwest
winds and mostly clear conditions much of the TAF period.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Localized low stratus and
dense fog for southwest Wyoming, the Cache valley, and Utah valley
will bring LIFR conditions through around 17Z. Low stratus and fog
will lift through the morning, with conditions transitioning from
MVFR to VFR as a cold front clears valley inversions. Mostly clear
conditions will prevail elsewhere with relatively light northwest
winds. Gusts around 25 knots are likely for southwest Wyoming from
17-00Z.

&&

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for UTZ109.

WY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MST this morning for WYZ021.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Webber
AVIATION...Wilson

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity