928
FXUS01 KWBC 010440
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 AM EDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 01 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 03 2025

...Rain to persist over the Pacific Northwest for the weekend...

...A cold front brings rain/thunderstorm chances across the the
southeastern third of the country...

...Above average/near record warmth will build in across the West
this weekend as ridging builds...


The Pacific Northwest will see the heaviest precipitation across
the country as an atmospheric river and cold front are presently
moving ashore.  The coastal zones may see rainfall accumulations
in the 2-3 inch range and as much as 3-5 inches in the Cascades
and Olympic mountain ranges, prompting an isolated risk of flash
flooding and perhaps some river flooding, with the Skokomish most
at risk. Additionally, gusty winds and high waves are hazards with
this storm system. Elevation snow in the Cascades is also likely
Saturday.  A reinforcing disturbance will bring additional rain
showers into Sunday and eventually push a cold front through the
Northwest.

An intense cyclone is expected to move northeast, away from New
England.  In its wake will be modest lake effect precipitation on
Saturday, and the cold advection will keep temperatures below
average this weekend into Monday east of the Mississippi River due
to the persistence of upper level troughing.  An approaching front
bringing precipitation back into the picture for the Great Lakes
late Sunday into Monday.  To the south, a weak cyclone/cold front
looks to bring chances for rain across the Midwest and Texas Gulf
Coast today (with some storms near the Texas coast strong to
perhaps severe), portions of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys late
Saturday into Sunday, and to portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic coast late Sunday into Monday.

Central and southern portions of the Intermountain West should
remain warm and dry with high temperatures in the 70s commonplace
on Saturday -- Southern California and Arizona may approach the
80s and low 90s.  Several locations could set daily record high
temperatures. On Sunday, the warmth will shift westward across the
Rockies and into the Dakotas. High temperatures are likely to hit
the upper 70s/near 80 across the Front Range, which is about 10-15
degrees above average for this time of the year and near daily
record highs.  The dry and breezy conditions should contribute to
an enhanced fire weather risk across southeast Wyoming and
Nebraska on Sunday.

Roth


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$