577
FXUS01 KWBC 201951
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 21 2025 - 00Z Sun Nov 23 2025

...Heavy rains to continue across the Southern Plains this
evening, diminishing overnight...

...Additional heavy rain and flash flooding threat for Southern
California, western Arizona and southern Nevada Thursday night
into Saturday...

...Record warmth to continue along the Gulf Coast, across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast...

...Arctic air to remain absent from the Lower 48 over the next few
day...

An active southern stream of the upper jet will continue over the
next few days, supporting a wet weather pattern from Southern
California, portions of the Desert Southwest, into the Central and
Southern Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic.  The ongoing heavy rains and threat of flash
flooding this afternoon, associated with the lead system in this
active southern stream, will continue across the Southern Plains
into this evening, but dissipate overnight.  These rains are then
expected to push north into the Central Plains/Mid Mississippi
Valley region tonight into early Friday and then eastward across
the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic Friday and
Friday night. The greatest threat of flash flooding will be over
the Southern Plains, with a lesser threat north into the Central
Plains and eastward into the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians.

In the wake of the first upper level southern stream system moving
from the Southern Plains into the Central Plains, the next
southern stream system will be comprise of a strong mid to upper
level low that will drop south along the California coast tonight
and then push slowly across Southern California into the Desert
Southwest Friday and Saturday.  Rains are expected across Central
to Southern California tonight and then across Southern
California, far western Arizona and southern Nevada for much of
Friday and Saturday.  This heavy precipitation will be falling
across areas of Southern California and the Southwest that
received heavy rains early in the week and this past weekend.
This additional heavy rain threat will pose the risk of flash
flooding, especially across burn scar and urbanized regions.

While the southern stream remains active over the next few days,
the northern stream will be characterized by mostly west to east
flow at the mid to upper levels.  This will keep arctic air absent
from the Lower 48 over the next few days.  Most of the Lower 48
will subsequently have above average temperatures late this week
into this weekend.  The exceptions to this will be across Central
to Southern California into the Southwest where cloud cover and
the likelihood of rains will keep temperatures below average.
Slightly below average temperatures also possible for the
Northeast and New England.  Record warmth will continue for areas
along the Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast over
the next two days.  Across these areas both much above average
morning lows and afternoon highs are expected.


Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$