102
FXUS01 KWBC 162016
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 17 2025 - 00Z Wed Nov 19 2025

...A round of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected to reach
northern California tonight before spreading into coastal southern
California with additional flash flooding and landslide concerns
on Monday...

...Wintry mix and wet snow across northern New York, Great Lakes,
interior New England, the Sierra Nevada, and portions of the
northern and central Rockies with 6-12 inches possible in the
higher elevations....

...Well above normal to record-breaking warmth across Texas into
early next week...

Following a day of trenching rainfall across central and southern
California, the low pressure system responsible for the inclement
weather is weakening and moving farther inland.  However, the next
round of significant rainfall is on the horizon as the next
frontal system in the Pacific is scheduled to reach northern
California tonight with a low pressure center developing along the
front.  While the moisture associated this system appears not as
robust as the one that has just impacted central and southern
California, moderate to heavy rain can fall in earnest as it
quickly spreads inland across northern California followed by
central California through tonight.  The moderate to heavy rain is
forecast to progress eastward ahead of the cold front and reach
the same areas in southern California impacted by the previous
heavy rainfall, renewing concerns for additional flash flooding
and landslides there.  This is especially true around burn scars,
coastal mountain ranges, and areas compromised by the previous
storm.  The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall in effect to account for the possible impacts.
Meanwhile, the central Sierra Nevada can expect 6-12+ inches of
wet snow from this system.  On Tuesday, central Arizona into
southwestern Utah will likely see increasing chances for heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding as the system moves eastward.

A deepening cyclone moving through the Northeast tonight will set
the stage for winter weather impacts, mostly confined to the Great
Lakes and interior New England.  Wrap-around moisture is forecast
to bring enhanced snowfall downwind from the lower Great Lakes and
to the Adirondacks, Green, and White mountain ranges.  The higher
elevations of northern Vermont could receive the highest snowfall
accumulations between 6-12 inches.  Winter Weather Advisories and
Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across portions of the region.
 The cold front trailing from the deepening cyclone is forecast to
sweep across the eastern U.S. and then out into the Atlantic,
resulting in widespread blustery winds and colder air into the
Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic and especially the Great Lakes
through the next couple of days.

By Monday night into Tuesday, the lake-effect snows are forecast
to gradually taper off.  Another low pressure system is then
forecast to develop over the central Plains on Monday and move
into the Midwest on Tuesday.  This system will likely bring
scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms across the Midwest
ahead of a warm front on Tuesday.  Some more scattered showers are
expected farther north across the northern Plains on Monday,
moving into portions of the upper Midwest on Tuesday.  In
addition, portions of the upper Midwest could see a period of wet
snow Tuesday morning near the northern edge of this low pressure
system.

From snow to record warmth, Texas and the southern Plains will
remain rather toasty for November as numerous cities will
challenge or break daily record high temperatures topping the
upper 80s across major Texas metros to the 90s across the Rio
Grande.  This is courtesy of strong mid-level ridging over the
area.  The warm temperatures look to persist into midweek and
spread eastward towards the South by the latter half of the week.

Lastly, there will be some remaining fire weather concerns across
the Mid-Atlantic region late this afternoon before cooler air
arrives behind the cold front.

Kong/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$