661
FXUS01 KWBC 231940
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 24 2025 - 00Z Wed Nov 26 2025

...Flash flood and severe weather threat across the southern
Plains today will gradually shift east to reach the Mid-South
Monday night...

...A stretch of potentially impactful winter weather expected from
the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes Monday-Tuesday...

...Well above average temperatures continue for much of the
central/eastern U.S.; cold front to bring chillier, blustery
conditions to portions of the northern/central Plains Tuesday....

A deep upper low and accompanying surface frontal system has
emerged onto the southern Plains from the Southwest today
(Sunday). Moist Gulf return flow and strong winds aloft will
support the development of robust thunderstorms along the eastward
moving cold front this afternoon and into the overnight hours
capable of both heavy downpours and severe weather. There is a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) from the Red River
Valley southwest through the Texas Hill Country. Numerous storms
moving along the cold front are expected to organize into an
eastward progressing line producing heavy rainfall which could
lead to scattered to potentially numerous instances of flash
flooding. Sensitive areas of the Texas Hill Country which have
seen heavy rains recently have the greatest chance of seeing some
flash flooding. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
issued a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) across west
Texas mainly for the threat of some large hail. The storms are
expected to remain ongoing along the cold front as it presses east
Monday stretching from the Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley west
through the ArkLaTex and into northern/eastern Texas. Another
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect from the Mid-South
southwest to north Texas where the greatest threat for more
scattered instances of flash flooding is expected given a
continued organized cluster of numerous heavy rain producing
storms. The SPC has also included another Slight Risk of severe
weather from the Lower Mississippi Valley west through east Texas
as continued strong deep-layer shear and increasing low-level
shear will bring the threat of both large hail/damaging winds and
a few tornadoes with storms developing ahead of the cold front.
The system will continue eastward into the Southeast on Tuesday
with locally heavy rainfall possible and the potential for at
least a few isolated instances of flash flooding, especially
across the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians. To the
north, this system is forecast to bring more moderate showers
across the central Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley through the
day Monday, and from the Middle Mississippi Valley east through
the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic later Monday and through
the day Tuesday.

An upper-wave has brought a lingering frontal system along the
Pacific Northwest eastward today spreading precipitation chances
inland, with lower elevation rain and higher elevation mountain
snow. The system will bring snow, heavy at times, to the northern
Rockies later this evening and through the day Monday. Then, as
the system emerges onto the Plains, a potentially impactful
stretch of winter weather is expected along the surface low track
from the northern High Plains Monday afternoon east through the
northern Plains overnight Monday/early Tuesday and into the Upper
Great Lakes by Tuesday evening. Uncertainty remains particularly
with total amounts, but at least moderate accumulations of several
inches are looking increasingly likely from northeastern Montana
eastward through North Dakota and into northern
Minnesota/Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, where snow will
continue into Wednesday. A messier wintry mix is expected to track
generally along the I-90 corridor east through the Plains. To the
west, another Pacific system is expected to arrive in the Pacific
Northwest by later Tuesday, bringing another round of lower
elevation rain and mountain snow.

Well above average temperatures will continue over the next couple
of days for most of the eastern/central U.S. Forecast highs
Monday/Tuesday range from the 80s along the Gulf Coast, the 60s
and 70s from the southern Plains eastward through the Southeast,
the 50s and 60s from the central Plains east through the Middle
Missouri/Ohio Valleys, and the 40s and 50s across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. Temperatures will be a bit more seasonable
across New England, with highs in the 30s and 40s, and into the
Mid-Atlantic, with highs in the 40s and 50s. An eastward moving
cold front will also bring chillier, blustery conditions to the
High Plains and western portions of the northern/central Plains by
Tuesday, as highs fall into the 30s for many locations. Highs
across the West will generally be seasonable, especially as the
Desert Southwest moderates following the passage of the upper-low.
Highs generally range from the 60s and 70s for southern California
and the Desert Southwest, the 50s and 60s northward along the West
Coast, and the 40s and 50s for the Interior West.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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