220
FXUS62 KTAE 302106
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
405 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

- A high chance of rain is expected by Monday night into Tuesday,
  and will be most beneficial in terms of possibly dialing back
  the drought northwest of the FL Big Bend. There is a 60-80%
  chance of 1 inch of rain or greater for southeast Alabama, the
  Florida Panhandle, and adjacent Southwest Georgia.

- There is a low chance of a few stronger thunderstorms near the
  Eastern FL Panhandle and Big Bend coast with the next system on
  Monday night into Tuesday. Keep checking back for updates.

- Marine winds will increase during Monday with a 70% chance of
  advisory-level winds for small craft Monday night into Tuesday.

- There is a medium chance for additional beneficial rainfall late
  in the week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1144 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

A positively tiled longwave trough will be out next weather maker
as a weak area of low pressure moves through the region Monday
night. This will lift a warm front northward during the overnight
hours, followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday. In addition
to some beneficial rainfall northwest of the FL Big Bend centered
on Monday night into Tuesday (discussed in more detail in the
Hydrology section at the bottom), some stronger thunderstorms are
possible closer to the Eastern FL Panhandle and Big Bend coasts.

For thunderstorm potential, seasonably high deep layer shear will
be in place, and high low-level SRH in particular. The questions
are how much surface-based instability can be generated, will it
overlap with the aforementioned SRH, and buoyancy? HREF shows the
probability for 60-65+ dew points highest along and south of I-10
where SB CAPE may approach ~500 J/kg as well from Monday night
into Tuesday in association with a northward lifting warm front.
Given sufficient moisture and surface-based instability, if SRH
(0-1km) of 200-300 M2/S2 can overlap with sufficient buoyancy,
then there would be the potential for thunderstorms to produce a
brief tornado or two near the Eastern FL Panhandle and Big Bend
coast from Monday night into Tuesday morning. Cannot rule strong
storms later Tuesday morning and afternoon in the FL Big Bend and
I-75 corridor of GA as the air mass recovers ahead of the cold
front, although the main threat should begin to shift to gusty
winds as the low-level SRH decreases, that is if buoyancy is
sufficient.

Otherwise, rain beginning to fall through the drier air mass on
Monday northwest of the FL Big Bend will result in cooler highs
in the lower to middle 60s, closer to the 25th percentile of
guidance. Cannot rule out some patchy fog as well Monday night
ahead of the warm front, although the potential is low, given
elevated easterly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1144 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

A chilly air mass for Wednesday and Thursday mornings behind
the departing storm system with lows in the 30s across much
of the region may lead to cold weather sheltering concerns for
vulnerable populations. After dry weather on Wed and Thu, the
next storm system approaches with wet weather expected Friday
into the weekend. Details on rainfall in the Hydrology section
at the bottom.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Multi-layered clouds (mostly mid and high clouds) associated with
a low pressure system and a band of convection to our west. For
this TAF period, adjusted timing of showers developing just to our
west in southern Alabama per high res guidance and local radar
imagery into ECP and DHN from 20-21Z to 02Z. Also tweaked cloud
heights and wind direction per surface observations.

Generally VFR through the period. Models do show MVFR cigs
reaching I65 corridor this evening but halting and dissipating to
our west. Showers develop into southern AL this afternoon
reaching our FL panhandle and southeast AL counties after 18Z
through the afternoon then dissipating this evening. Models also
show MVFR/IFR conds building from the west after this TAF period
for planning purposes.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1144 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

High pressure to the north of the waters and a frontal boundary
stalled to the south lead to fresh easterly breezes late tonight
into Monday mainly to the west of Apalachicola to the Okaloosa/
Walton County line, where small craft operators are advised to
exercise caution. Low pressure northwest of the waters will lift
the aforementioned frontal boundary northward as a warm front
on Monday night with winds becoming southerly, and then clocking
around to northwesterly as the low moves away from the waters.
There is a 70% chance a small craft advisory will be needed for
most of the coastal waters from Monday night into Tuesday. We
expect tranquil boating conditions to return by Wednesday and
continue into Thursday. The approach of the next storm system
will increase winds Friday into Saturday with a 50% chance of
advisory-level conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1144 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

A wetting rain is expected to begin on Monday northwest of the FL
Big Bend and spread across the remainder of the region by Tuesday,
with the most beneficial rains in terms of possibly dialing back the
drought a bit northwest of the FL Big Bend. The main fire weather
concern are pockets of low dispersion across the region on Monday
due to low mixing heights which will offset otherwise brisk east
transport winds. Looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, a dry
period of weather with a 30% probability of elevated fire weather
concerns due to low afternoon RH, especially from the Flint River
Valley east in GA and the FL Panhandle and Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1144 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

The next chance of rainfall will be centered on Monday afternoon
into Tuesday. Rain will overspread portions of Southeast AL and
the FL Panhandle into the Flint River Valley GA during Monday aftn
then across the remainder of the region Monday night into Tuesday.
Amounts will generally range from 1 to 2 inches from the Flint
River Valley GA into Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle with up to
1 inch in the FL Big Bend; a reasonable worst case scenario (90th
percentile) adds about 1 inch to these amounts with CAMs showing
a bullseye in the FL Panhandle where there is a 50% chance of
amounts around 3" closer in Walton/Bay Counties where activity
off the Gulf moves inland. Overall, the most beneficial rains in
terms of possibly dialing back the drought a bit are expected to
remain northwest of the FL Big Bend. The aforementioned amounts
may lead to poor drainage flooding, especially urban areas, as
water will not readily absorb into dry soil and runoff quickly,
which may also create some slick roads due to oil build up.

Brisk onshore flow from Monday night into Tuesday will lead to
increasing water levels along the Apalachee Bay coast. Given
we`re on the descending end of the astronomical tide cycle
(between the new and full moon) and winds are already clocking
around to offshore prior to the higher of the mixed semidiurnal
tides Tue afternoon, we`re not expecting coastal flooding attm.

Looking ahead, another system may impact the region at the end of
the week with a 30-50% chance of an additional 1 inch or greater.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  56  73  62 /  10  20  30  80
Panama City   72  57  73  60 /  30  30  40  90
Dothan        70  52  68  55 /  20  30  40  90
Albany        70  51  67  55 /  20  30  30  90
Valdosta      75  53  72  59 /   0  10  30  70
Cross City    79  55  79  62 /   0  10  20  50
Apalachicola  70  60  70  64 /  20  20  30  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF