693
FXUS62 KTAE 110700
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
200 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 112 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

- A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through early this
  morning from Okaloosa/Walton County line to Suwanee River.

- A light freeze is expected away from the coast tonight. Another
  medium to high chance of a freeze is expected early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 112 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

A dry cold frontal passage is nearly complete as of 1 AM ET with
the boundary near the Forgotten Coast. Temps are running warmer
than previously forecast, and should start the day ranging from
the low-30s north to low-40s south with a low potential for some
patchy fog in the Suwanee Valley. A mostly sunny day in store
as high pressure builds into the region with high temps mid-50s
north to low-60s south. The dry air mass will yield dew points
closer to 10th percentile of guidance. High pressure centered
overhead tonight and ideal longwave (radiational cooling) will
support low temps at least low to mid-30s, with some upper 20s
possible (~25th percentile of the guidance), so the forecast
may need to be adjusted a skosh lower. The end result is still
the same with a light freeze away from the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 112 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Fairly zonal flow with heights rising aloft on Friday and Saturday
will lead to dry weather and above normal temps. Dew points
closer to 25th percentile of guidance Friday. Longwave trough
sharpens as it moves through the eastern CONUS late in the weekend
with a strong cold fropa Sunday and Sunday night. Limited
southern stream shortwave energy and moist return may lead to some
showers Saturday night into Sunday, mainly northwest of the FL
Big Bend. A much colder air mass and breezy conditions filter in
Sunday and Monday. The forecast shows a contrast in high temps
Sunday with 50s northwest, where temps remain steady or fall in
the afternoon, to the 70s southeast. There is also a 50% chance of
northerly wind gusts of 25 mph on Sunday. As mentioned
previously, wind chills Sunday night could get close to cold
weather advisory criteria. The potential is increasing for a
couple of cold mornings on Monday and Tuesday, with a medium to
high chance of a freeze. The temperature seesaw continues with the
return of above average temps for midweek with the approach of
the next system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

A dry cold front has recently passed DHN, ABY, and ECP. It will soon
pass TLH and VLD. SCT-BKN cumulus are accompanying the front, so
these will linger at TLH and VLD until about 07z-08z. Once the front
passes, the clouds will exit, leaving clear skies at all terminals.
The advection of dry air overnight will prevent fog formation later
this morning. Northwest surface winds will prevail, until a surface
high passes directly across the region on Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 112 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Between 04Z and 05Z, buoys 42036, 42027, and 42028 were all
observing winds around 20 kt. A recent ASCAT pass indicated
20 kt winds from the Okaloosa/Walton County line to the
Ochlockonee River. High resolution guidance indicates 20 kt
winds will spread eastward from the Ochlockonee River to the
Suwanee River. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
until 7 AM/6 AM CT today.

From the CWF Synopsis...
After the Small Craft Advisory expires at 7 AM/6 AM CT today,
brisk north winds and offshore seas near 5 feet are expected
through at least this morning, so small craft should exercise
caution. More tranquil boating conditions are expected tonight
through Saturday night. Looking ahead, a strong cold frontal
passage is expected on Sunday or Sunday night. In the wake of
the front, the probability for northerly gale-force wind gusts
is increasing, and is now around 40%.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

No wetting rains are forecast until the middle of next week. Brisk
northerly transport winds today behind a cold front will weaken
during the afternoon, leading to low dispersion mainly in Southeast
AL and the Eastern FL Panhandle, with otherwise good dispersion away
from the immediate coast. Meanwhile, minimum afternoon RH bottoms
out in the low to mid-30s. Transport winds turn brisk southwesterly
on Friday, leading good dispersion by afternoon across the region
away from immediate coast. Looking ahead, a strong cold frontal
passage on Sunday sets the stage for the potential of elevated fire
weather concerns early next week due to elevated winds and low
minimum afternoon RH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 112 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Dry weather is expected for the next several day with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   59  34  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   60  41  70  53 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        56  35  67  46 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        55  33  65  44 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  33  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  32  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  59  43  68  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     FLZ112.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ this morning for
     GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF