412
FXUS62 KTAE 102322
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
722 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

 - Cool and breezy post-frontal weather with hazardous beach &
   marine conditions expected into this weekend. Check the local
   forecast before entering the water.

 - A warm and dry forecast next week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution while conducting any outdoor burning.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A mid level cutoff low over the area today will very slowly slide
to the east/northeast over the Carolina coast over the weekend
with relatively cooler and drier air in place over us. This
feature will develop a surface low pressure along the stalled cold
front draped over the FL Peninsula and begin to drag it
northeastward along with it, with northeasterly to northeasterly
flow staying put locally. This will lead to cooler and drier
conditions persisting over the weekend and into early next week.

Next week, mid level ridging begins to slide eastward over the
Mississippi Valley with moisture return kicking off across the
region. A reinforcing cold front may approach the area late in the
period around midweek, but confidence is fairly low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

MVFR ceilings across a large part of the area this evening will
gradually lift and scatter out from west to east overnight. By
sunrise, most areas are expected to be VFR. Northeast winds will
continue to be gusty with gusts around 20 knots at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A tight pressure gradient following frontal passage yields fresh
to strong northeast breezes into this weekend before gradually
weakening once again. Advisory conditions continue into the
weekend over the waters 0 to 60 nautical miles out with cautionary
levels at Saint Andrews Bay. Building high pressure early next
week makes for more favorable boating as gentle to moderate
northerly breezes arrive.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Expect cloudy skies to continue today with chances for showers
and a few thunderstorms over eastern portions of our are as a
cold front gradually clears the region. Mixing heights look to
stay below 3000 ft. Breezy northeast winds prevail.

Drier conditions arrive this weekend following frontal passage.
Brisk northeast winds continue during the daytime hours while
plentiful sunshine basically doubles mixing heights from Friday.
High dispersions are forecast over Apalachicola Nat`l Forest.

The airmass becomes even more dry on Sunday as RH bottoms out in
the 30s for much of the Tri-State area. Winds turn more
northerly, albeit lighter thanks to high pressure building in.
Elevated fire concerns are likely next week when a warming trend
takes shape with little to no rainfall in sight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

A few showers and storms are still possible across the area today
before a drier pattern takes hold through the rest of the week. No
river flooding is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   63  79  59  81 /  20  10  10   0
Panama City   63  82  60  83 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        60  79  55  82 /  20   0   0   0
Albany        60  78  57  79 /  20  10  10  10
Valdosta      61  77  59  78 /  30  20  20  10
Cross City    64  79  61  81 /  20  20  10  10
Apalachicola  64  80  62  80 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for
     GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield