513
FXUS62 KTAE 040531
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1231 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

- High rain chances beginning Thursday night and lasting into
  Sunday. Widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are possible
  through the weekend, with higher amounts forecast along and
  north of a line from near Panama City, FL to Fitzgerald, GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

The beginning of a fairly wet pattern, especially considering the
widespread drought conditions we`ve seen over the last 2 months,
will begin late Thursday as next system approaches the region.

Before the wet pattern commences, surface high pressure will fill
into the region this afternoon following yesterday`s cold front.
With some clearing and relatively light winds, we`ll cool off a
few degrees more than this morning and by Thursday morning most
areas should be in the low 40s and mid to upper 30s.

For Thursday, surface high pressure will continues its eastward
trek as a belt of stronger upper level southwesterlies develops
into the evening. Increasing upper level cloud cover and sustained low-
level warm advection east of a developing surface low will mean
increasing cloudiness and rain chances from west to east by the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

For the long term period beginning Thursday night, a much wetter
pattern will take shape across the region.

The wet pattern will largely be driven by multiple waves
traversing the elevated southwesterly flow aloft from Thursday
night into Sunday. The first wave arrives Thursday night into
Friday. In addition to widespread rainfall across southwest
Georgia, Panhandle, and southeast Alabama, some limited
thunderstorm potential will exist across our marine zones and
Florida counties where elevated instability will exist.

After this wave moves through the front should stall across the
northern Gulf. As the next wave moves in, widespread isentropic
ascent should lead to a broad area of steady stratiform rain
Saturday into Sunday. Some heavy rain can`t be ruled out on Sunday
as another weak surface low develops along the boundary as the
final wave in the upper levels moves through.

While there is some uncertainty in the arrival of the waves and
the exact timing of the heavier amounts, there is at least high
probabilities that nearly the entire forecast area will see
beneficial rainfall of at least an inch, with a majority of the
forecast area most likely seeing around 2 inches. When accounting
for some of the higher end possibilities, widespread rainfall
amounts could reach 3 to 4 inches in some of the heavier hit areas
by the time the weekend ends.

As for temperatures, we`ll generally see near normal to slightly-
below normal temperatures from Friday into next week as the
cloudy and rainy conditions keep temperatures down in the
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions continue the rest of the night with a light
northeasterly breeze. Conditions deteriorate as rain moves in
from the west Thursday morning. Confidence is highest for KDHN and
KABY for steady light to moderate rain much of the day with IFR
ceilings developing as soon as the rain begins. The PROB30 groups
were maintained for KTLH and KVLD, as confidence wasn`t quite
there to go prevailing rain and low ceilings quite yet, but MVFR
to IFR ceilings cannot be entirely ruled out at this time and may
be introduced in future TAF packages.

There does appear to be a bit of a lull in the rain later Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night, but left drizzle in the TAFs for
KABY and KDHN along with lower ceilings as a hedge in case the
rain currently forecast for central AL/GA is a bit more south than
expected. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected, but, admittedly,
confidence isn`t the highest this far out.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Favorable marine conditions are expected through tonight. A
tightening pressure gradient brings easterly to northeasterly
winds to near cautionary levels west of Apalachicola Thursday.
Southerly winds are forecast Friday as an area of low pressure
meanders along the northern Gulf Coast with the potential for
advisory level winds Friday into Saturday. Rounds of scattered
rain and possibly a few thunderstorms is then likely into the
weekend until the main front pushes through on Monday bringing an
end to the rain. Some advisory or cautionary level winds are
possible behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

High pressure combined with ample low-level moisture and an
inversion will keep dispersions low today and again Thursday. As
our next weather system moves in, rain chances increase from west
to east during the day Thursday with a couple rounds of rain
anticipated again Friday and Saturday. Aside from low dispersions
into the weekend, this will keep fire concerns low as the chances
for wetting rains increase significantly. On the low end rainfall
amounts range around 0.5 to 1.0 inches across the region, but if
the right conditions align, some localized rainfall amounts by
the end of the weekend could near 3 to 5 inches. While these
amounts will not bring an end to the drought they would be
sufficient enough to bring a much longer pause in fire weather

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 106 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Several rounds of rain are forecast Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
By the time a cold front swings through later this weekend,
widespread rainfall totals of 1" to 4" are forecast, with the
higher totals anticipated along and north of a line near Panama
City, FL to Fitzgerald, GA. The lower end of the rainfall amounts
are currently forecast across the Florida Big Bend and into south-
central Georgia.

Fortunately, the riverine flood threat is rather low at this time as
much of the rain falling across Alabama and Georgia should be more
stratiform in nature and very beneficial. Meanwhile, a few
convective downpours are forecast across Florida, mainly along and
south of I-10, and could lead to localized flash flooding should
they train over our more urban areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   50  71  53  63 /  60  90  60  80
Panama City   50  71  53  63 /  50  90  70  80
Dothan        45  57  48  56 /  60  90  80  80
Albany        45  57  48  56 /  60 100  80  80
Valdosta      48  70  51  62 /  40  90  70  80
Cross City    52  77  58  72 /  10  50  50  60
Apalachicola  54  73  57  66 /  40  80  60  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs