895
FXUS62 KTAE 160001
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
701 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 654 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

- A hard freeze is expected across southeast Alabama, southwest
  Georgia, and inland parts of the Florida Panhandle. Residents in
  these areas should take precautions to protect people, pets,
  pipes, and plants.

- The next chance of rain arrives late Wednesday night into
  Thursday. There is a very low (less than 5%) chance of isolated
  strong to severe storms on Thursday. Stay tuned to the latest
  forecasts over the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

A tricky forecast setup is in store for tonight. Surface high
pressure will traverse the southeast US and move into the Carolinas
by Tuesday morning. This positioning of the high will not be the
most ideal setup for radiational cooling except for our northern
areas and low spots in the inland Panhandle. Meanwhile, the 925 mb
high is a little further to the east, which brings in some low-level
warm, moist air along easterly to southeasterly flow. You can see
this already on visible satellite with clouds moving in from the
Atlantic along the Florida East Coast. The question is how far west
do these clouds and moisture advect. The 12Z HREF shows a very well-
defined moisture boundary basically from Port St. Joe to Tallahassee
to Valdosta. North and west of this line, 925 mb RHs are in the
single digits and teens. South and east of this line, 925 mb RHs
are greater than 60 percent.

For tonight`s forecast, the best chances of a hard freeze are across
southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and inland low spots in the
Florida Panhandle. This is where a Freeze Warning (for a hard
freeze) is now in effect. Residents in these areas should protect
the 4 P`s: People, Pets, Pipes, Plants. The (Hard) Freeze Watch was
canceled for Washington County FL as well as much of the I-75
corridor in south GA. Clouds and moisture increasing in the Big Bend
should lead to warmer temperatures in these areas with lows in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. Still, a light freeze is expected for most of
the area outside the (Hard) Freeze Warning, and residents should
take precautions to protect people, pets, and plants.

It should be noted that especially the strip from Tallahassee to
Valdosta is particularly uncertain. If the moisture doesn`t make it
there, then temperatures could be colder than forecast. Or, if it is
delayed, we may see temperatures fall fast with radiational cooling
before bouncing back up at some point overnight once the moisture
arrives.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

By Tuesday, moisture begins to return as high pressure slides far
enough east to get southeasterly flow re-established. We`ll still
have a cool air mass in place, but we will be on a quick warming
trend. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Lows Tuesday night will mainly be in the upper 30s to mid 40s with
maybe an isolated light freeze in part of our Georgia counties west
of Albany. Patchy fog will be possible as moisture moves into our
still somewhat cool air mass.

The next shortwave approaches the area on Wednesday, then hangs
around until getting kicked out by the next longwave trough Thursday
into Friday. While we won`t see rain until Wednesday night, it will
be rather cloudy for most of the day. Rain chances begin to increase
late Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of the next cold front.
We`ll have to watch the storms Thursday and Thursday night as
forecast soundings show large curvature in the hodographs with a
strong low-level jet developing. However, instability is currently
very low to nil. With the better forcing to our north, this could be
a setup for low-topped rotating storms. More refinement to the
forecast will come over the coming days.

Otherwise, mild weather is anticipated with highs returning to the
60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. There doesn`t appear to
be much cooler air behind this front heading into the weekend with
freezing temperatures highly unlikely (less than 10% chance) for
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. There
remains a low confidence probability for MVFR cigs to impact TLH
and VLD during the overnight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Winds and seas continue to subside through this afternoon. Gentle
to moderate east-southeast breezes will prevail from tonight
through Thursday with seas around 1 to 3 feet. By Wednesday night
into Thursday, rain chances will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front. Winds will clock around of out of the southwest late
Thursday, then become northwesterly to northerly behind the front
Friday. There is currently a low chance of advisory-level winds
Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Increasing moisture returns Tuesday with light east to southeast
transport winds for much of the area. Min RH values will range from
the upper 20s to mid 30s in southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
to the mid 40s to low 50s in the Florida Big Bend and south central
Georgia. The light winds with low mixing heights will yield poor
dispersions for most of the area Tuesday. Moisture increases further
on Wednesday, but dispersions will still be poor Wednesday with
light winds and low mixing heights. By Thursday, rain chances will
increase ahead of the next cold front, though chances of a wetting
rain are still low (20-30%). Dispersions will be fair on Thursday as
transport winds increase out of the southeast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 114 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

While some rain is in the forecast, drought impacts will continue
to persist. Rainfall totals over the next 7 days will be around a
quarter to half an inch with reasonable high-end totals around
three-quarters to one inch. Flooding is not anticipated. For more
information regarding drought and local impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   33  62  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   33  61  44  66 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        25  57  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        23  58  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      29  62  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    35  67  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  39  59  49  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     FLZ007-009-011-013.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for
     FLZ114-115.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ120>128-130-
     131-142>145-155-156.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young