270
FXUS62 KTAE 162032
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
332 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

 - Elevated fire weather concerns continue into Monday afternoon
   over portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia for
   critically low relative humidity. Use caution with outdoor
   flames and follow local officials regarding any burn bans.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Surface high pressure will begin sliding over the southeast tonight
as we become post-frontal. Cooler and drier air will advect in from
the north over the next couple days leading to pleasant weather
conditions. By mid-week we`ll see southerly flow start to increase,
allowing moisture to push further inland with each passing day as
surface high pressure slides off into the western Atlantic. Ridging
overhead remains in place until this weekend, allowing large scale
subsidence to keep rain chances near nil.

Our next potential frontal system looks to approach the region from
the west Sunday night into Monday. It is too early to determine what
impacts, if any, this system will produce for the region. Be sure to
check back for updates throughout the week.

Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Overnight lows initially in the mid 40s to low 50s warm up into the
upper 50s to low 60s by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon with gusty
westerly winds. Winds will diminish around sunset with patchy fog
possible across the Florida big bend terminals early Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Winds and seas will subside on Monday, and more tranquil boating
conditions will return through Wednesday as high pressure settles
over the waters. As the high center moves east and a low center
approaches the Mississippi Valley, southeasterly winds will increase
by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Brisk westerly transport winds the rest of today in advance of a dry
cold front will lead to dispersions on the higher side, but they are
not expected to be critically high, along with much higher afternoon
RH compared to the past couple of days (generally in the 50s). The
dry cold frontal passage tonight will usher in a much drier air mass
for Monday afternoon, with RH tanking to around 20% moving northward
of the FL border further into Southeast AL and Southwest GA, but
rising through the 30s and 40s in the FL Counties southward toward
the Gulf coast. Northerly 20 ft winds will be light, so the main
concern will be easier fire starts given the low RH, leading to
elevated fire weather conditions on Monday afternoon and evening.
Given the light northerly transport winds on Monday afternoon,
dispersions will be fair at best, and cannot rule out some pockets
of lower values. On Tuesday, RH values may dip into the 30s again in
Southeast AL and Southwest GA, but are expected to remain above
critical levels at this time. Dispersions may improve to fair by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Rainfall through Saturday is expected to be near nil, drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area.

Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   56  79  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  78  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        52  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        49  75  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  77  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  80  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  60  74  59  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver