971
FXUS62 KTAE 021012
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
612 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The "backdoor" frontal passage has stalled over the NE Gulf. A
tightening pressure gradient will increase winds over land today,
making it a little breezy with gusts up to 30 mph. Dew points will
be noticeably lower with values falling into the low to mid 50s
for the Tri-State region, except the SE FL Big Bend. Temperatures
today will remain warm with highs in the low to mid 80s, with
pockets of upper 80s to around 90 degrees along the immediate
coast this afternoon. Overnight lows will generally be in the
mid-60s. There is an isolated chance for spotty showers along the
coast this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

The tight pressure gradient generating the gusty winds up to 25
mph will continue to hold in place through the weekend. During the
day on Saturday, an inverted trough appears to move across the NE
Gulf, allowing moisture advection with increasing dew points.
PWATs increasing to be above 2 inches, and enough forcing to
generate scattered PoPs of 50%-70% for Sunday and Monday. Upper
level ridging begins to build back in by Tuesday, lowering our
rain chances through the rest of the period.

Afternoon high temperatures during the period will generally be
in the mid-80s. Overnight low temperatures will be in upper 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR through the period, with one exception. MVFR cigs may develop
into southeast Georgia and move into VLD after 07Z. Otherwise,
northeast winds will become gusty beginning mid morning through
the day with speeds 18-22 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Winds and seas are on the rise. A cold front stalling over the
waters will cause a tightening pressure gradient that will have
northeasterly winds at Advisory level, 20-25 kts, with gusts
around 30 kts through the weekend. Seas are expected to rise to
5-8 feet with occasional 9-foot waves in our western offshore
waters. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly in our
offshore waters, through the weekend. Winds and seas will begin to
relax at the start of the work week as the center of the surface
high to our north shifts to the east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Between high pressure to our north and a stalled cold front to
our south, a tightening pressure gradient will increase our winds
over land for the next few days. Transport winds will be
easterly/northeasterly at around 15-25 mph through the weekend.
Drier air will also be filtering into the Tri-State region with
dew points in the 50s for our Georgia and Alabama districts. MinRH
will generally range from the low 30s% in AL and GA, with 40s% in
Florida today, with gradually increasing values through the rest
of the week into the weekend. Dispersions will be fair to moderate
through the period with pockets of high dispersions throughout
for the next few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Rainfall amounts this weekend are expected to range from about a
half-inch up to about an inch. Although any rain is beneficial,
with local rivers flowing below normal, this will not be enough to
cause any hydro concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  67  84  68 /  10   0  10   0
Panama City   87  68  85  69 /  20   0  10  10
Dothan        83  63  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        82  64  83  66 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  67  83  67 /   0   0  10   0
Cross City    87  68  86  69 /  20  10  40  10
Apalachicola  84  70  83  71 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Sunday for GMZ730-
     751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery