604
FXUS62 KTAE 300949
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
549 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Today will be similar to yesterday as we will continue the
northeast flow, coming off from the north side of Tropical Storm
Imelda. A deck of low stratus clouds will be moving in to the
region from the northeast, and will likely linger into the early
afternoon hours. Due to this, I have reduced the afternoon max
temperatures a couple of degrees below NBM guidance. As a result,
afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Although there is less
moisture in the air, there remains a slight chance for isolated
showers during the day. The best chance will be along the I-75
corridor into the Suwannee Valley and the AL wiregrass region into
west-central Georgia.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

A backdoor cold front will sink in from the northeast, bringing
in somewhat cooler air to the region. The front is expected to
move into our marine zones and stall there for several days.
Following the frontal passage over land, high pressure will build
to our north and east, creating a tightening pressure gradient.
This will increase our winds where we could see wind gusts of
20-30 mph by Thursday through the weekend.

Temperatures for this term look to be a little cooler as we can
potentially expect more cloud cover later in the week towards the
weekend. This is due to the cool northeasterly flow at the surface
with warm southwesterly flow aloft. Straight NBM guidance doesn`t
typically catch these nuances very well; so as a precaution, have
decided to lower temperatures for the extended by blending in
NBM25 keeping temperatures in the low to mid 80s for areas north
of I-10.

A small shortwave trough of low pressure looks to develop along
the stalled front over our marine zones near the weekend, which
would bring moisture back into the region, increasing our chances
for showers and thunderstorms along the coast. This will bring
PoPs ranging from 30-40 percent for mainly Southern Georgia,
Florida Panhandle, and the Big Bend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 545 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Area of stratus has just about made it to ECP which should start
reporting MVFR cigs just after 10Z. Therefore, all sites will be
reporting MVFR cigs through much of the morning then erode from
west to east into the afternoon with ECP/DHN first reaching VFR
conds late morning then ABY/VLD this afternoon. Winds will remain
northeasterly around 10 knots with gusts at TLH/ABY/VLD up to 20
knots. Overnight, signals point to MVFR returning to ABY/VLD after
08Z.




&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Favorable boating conditions will continue for the daytime hours
through Wednesday with north/northeast winds around 10-15 kts and
seas ranging from 1-3 feet. Cautionary conditions are possible
during the overnight hours due to the nocturnal surges.

A cold front is expected to pass through and stall over the
marine waters during the day Wednesday, creating a tight pressure
gradient increasing the winds and seas. Advisory level winds will
likely begin Thursday and continue through the weekend with winds
around 20-25 kts and gusts around 30kts. There is about a 10-20%
chance that wind gusts may exceed gale-force criteria (34 kts)
during this time period. Seas are expected to increase and range
from 5-9 ft Thursday through the weekend.

Along with the increase of wind and seas, there is a decent
chance for showers and thunderstorms over the waters along the
stalled front. PoPs range from 30% over the nearshore waters to
nearly 80% for our far offshore waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Northeasterly transport winds will continue through the forecast
period with gust values peaking around 15-20 mph during the
afternoons. Rain chances will be minimal over the next several
days, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this
afternoon near the I-75 corridor. Dispersions for the regions will
be moderate with perhaps a few pockets of high dispersions in the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend during the afternoons to go along
with the elevated transport winds. This may increase fire weather
concerns late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the region
through this evening, but significant rainfall is not expected.
Currently, the drought conditions and low flow on area rivers will
prevail. By Thursday, a backdoor cold front is expected to stall
over the marine zones. If the front stalls further north along the
coast, then there will be potential for heavy rainfall late this
weekend along the coast. Continue to follow the forecast as
updates are made.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  68  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   86  69  88  68 /   0   0  10   0
Dothan        84  66  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
Albany        82  65  86  64 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  65  86  66 /  10  10   0   0
Cross City    87  67  88  68 /  10   0  10   0
Apalachicola  86  70  84  70 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery