349
FXUS62 KTAE 110235
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
935 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 919 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - The first freeze of the season is expected for all but
   beachfront communities Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Lows
   will fall into the 20s at most locations away from the coast to
   low 30s near the coast. A freeze warning is in effect for the
   entire local area with a hard freeze possible in the wiregrass.
   Wind chills will plummet into the upper teens to lower 20s
   overnight tonight.

 - A Gale Warning is in effect until late tonight for all but the
   nearshore waters west of Apalachicola, where a Small Craft
   Advisory remains in effect through early Tuesday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Minor tweaks were made to temperatures and dew points tonight. As
of about 2Z, we are observing widespread T`s upper 30s to low 40s
(mid teens/mid 20s Td`s) with near to below-freezing wind chills
already via strong cold-air advection from the NW! Expect these
values to continue plummeting as the night goes on. The Freeze
Warning is now valid as of 9PM EST/8PM CST areawide with a Cold
Weather Advisory for min feels-like temperatures in the upper
teens to low 20s following suit starting at 11PM EST/10PM CST.

Remember to protect people, pets, plants, and pipes. The latter
is for locations more likely to experience a hard freeze of 25
degrees or lower - SE AL and parts of adjacent SW GA. Although
too-low RH and elevated wind should preclude frost formation, some
patchy development is still possible in sheltered spots. The
"best" potential would be in the Wiregrass during the early-
morning hrs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Freezing temperatures will arrive this evening through the
overnight hours. Temperatures will fall to freezing and below all
the way to the coastline tonight. At the coast, expect values
around 32 degrees. Whereas further inland, temperatures may bottom
out in the mid 20s. Another hazard to be concerned about will be
the wind chills. Along the coastline, wind chills will range in
the low to mid-20s. Inland, the wind chills will likely fall to
the upper teens to low 20s. Due to these temperatures, Freeze
Warnings are in effect for tonight for all counties, with a hard
freeze possible for our Alabama and Georgia Wiregrass counties.
There is a Cold Weather Advisory for all of our counties due to
the dangerous wind chills expected for tonight. These hazards will
be in effect tonight through 8AM EST / 7AM CST.

During the day Tuesday, the winds and temperatures will attempt to
moderate with light northerly winds during the day and temperatures
warming to the mid-50s, and upper 50s along the coast. Temperatures
are expected to fall to freezing again Tuesday night with the light
to calm winds expected during the overnight hours. However with the
light winds, wind chills aren`t as much as a concern. Tuesday night
will be a decent night for radiational cooling allowing temperatures
to quickly fall through the night. A Freeze Watch has been issued
for Tuesday night for our inland regions with temperatures ranging
from the upper 20s to low 30s with wind chills in the low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Through the long term period, surface high pressure will dominate
at the start, and temperatures moderating. High temperatures will
be in the upper 60s to low 70s, increasing to the upper 70s to
near 80 by the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper
40s inland and low 50s along the coast, slowly warming to the low
50s and upper 50s along the coast by the weekend. The surface
high will begin to break down as upper level ridging builds over
the region later this week, inducing the warming trend mentioned
earlier. We can expect light winds and clear to mostly clear skies
through the long term. Rain chances begin to increase late this
weekend as an upper level trough travels across the southern half
of the U.S. late this weekend into the start of the next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. 20 to 25 knot
gusts will decrease by 03z as conditions cool. Winds should remain
around 10 knots overnight and slowly veer to become northerly by
sunrise and remain that way through the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 919 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

The Small Craft Advisory for St Andrews Bay was cancelled a few
hrs prior to expiration as late-evening trends no longer support
such conditions. The Gale Warning remains in good shape for our
offshore legs and Apalachee Bay. The latter has been supported by
Buoy 42036 reporting frequent gusts at or near gale force with
9-ft seas and Buoy 42012 showing similar gusts.

CWF Synopsis: Strong northwest winds will continue through
tonight in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. A Gale Warning
remains in effect for all our waters except nearshore legs west of
Apalachicola through late tonight where a Small Craft Advisory is
in place through Tuesday morning. During the day on Tuesday,
winds will begin to subside and seas gradually decrease through
the day. High pressure will settle into the region leading to
favorable boating conditions through the rest of the week

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

A dry and cold airmass continues to filter in to the area as high
pressure builds towards southeast US by tomorrow and Wednesday.
Northwest winds speeds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph
through this afternoon coupled with afternoon humidities falling
into the low to mid 20% range. A red flag warning is in effect
this afternoon for our Southeast Alabama, Eastern Florida
Panhandle, and Big Bend districts where critical fire weather
conditions will be in place along with recent dry fuels and severe
drought conditions.

Winds decrease for Tuesday as high pressure moves close by with
afternoon relative humidities remaining in the low to mid 20%
range. This will lead to elevated fire weather concerns. Low
dispersions Tuesday afternoon Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle.
High pressure moves east Wednesday with a slow but gradual
increase in moisture with afternoon humidities in the low to mid
30% area.

The coldest temperatures of this fall season are on tap with the
first killing frost and freeze expected for all but immediate
coastal locations both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 222 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Dry conditions are expected to continue through the long term
with the next chance for rain arriving later this weekend. Drought
conditions will persist or worsen across much of the Tri-State
area.

Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   30  55  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   33  58  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        25  54  32  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        26  53  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      28  53  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    27  57  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  34  57  44  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Tuesday for FLZ007>019-
     027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for FLZ011-013-016>019-027>029-034-326-426.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for
     FLZ112-114.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ065>069.

     Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ065>069.

     Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
     ALZ066-067-069.

GM...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Tuesday for GMZ730-755-
     765-770-772-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 9 AM EST /8 AM
     CST/ Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-770-772-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ751-752.

&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Montgomery/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery