254
FXUS62 KTAE 151516
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1016 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1015 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Elevated fire concerns over portions of Southwest Georgia
   Saturday and Monday afternoon for near to critically low
   relative humidity.

 - The weather pattern through mid next week is favorable for daily
   overnight/early-morning fog outside of perhaps Monday.

 - Minimal rainfall over the next several days maintains and/or worsens
   widespread severe to extreme drought conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

The forecast is on track this morning, updates don`t appear
necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 156 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Early-morning satellite and surface analysis shows a broad upper
trough over the region whose axis bisects the Eastern Seaboard
with a bubble of 1022-mb surface high pressure directly overhead.
These features are working in tandem to maintain a dry airmass,
light/calm low-level winds, and NW flow aloft. Nighttime
microphysics also highlights fog between Mobile & Pensacola Bay
and the Suwannee Valley. This activity should should largely stay
just east & west of the Tri-State area, but cannot rule out some
encroachment into our left/right peripheries through sunrise.

After waking up to widespread lows in the 40s, temperatures
rebound to the upper 70s this afternoon under plentiful sunshine.
Low inland humidity will make for a pleasantly comfortable
Saturday amidst prevailing southwest winds. Expect slightly
"muggier" conditions near the coast as a seabreeze gets underway
during peak heating hrs. A modest influx of low-level moisture
fosters milder lows in the 50s tonight into Sunday morning, in
addition to better chances for fog coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 156 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

A temporary moistening trend kicks into higher gear on Sunday
with another afternoon of prevailing maritime southwest low-level
flow in response to surface high pressure shifting to our east.
High temperatures respond by increasing by about a couple of
degrees compared to Saturday while seeing an uptick in fair-
weather cumulus. Overnight lows also creep up, especially
along/south of I-10 where mid-to-upper 50s are forecast.

On Monday, another backdoor front slips in from north to south
roughly towards the FL state line. This boundary will provide a
reinforced shot of dry continental air via northerly low-level
flow. Expect a noticeable meridional dew point gradient in
response during the afternoon with values ranging from mid 30s/low
40s in SE AL & SW GA to mid 50s along the coast. As such,
elevated fire concerns return for portions of SW GA thanks to near
to critically low RH.

Surface high pressure builds over the region once again Tuesday,
then shifts off the Atlantic coast as the work week progresses
amidst a strengthening upper ridge. The remainder of the long-term
period will therefore be defined by an unseasonable
warming/moistening trend. High temperatures in the low 80s will be
common away from the coastal strip while inland lows range from
the mid to upper 50s.

Looking towards the end of the week, a frontal system takes shape
over the Ark-La-Tex region, then tracks eastward into the MS
Valley. This feature is going to be our best opportunity for
rainfall, though amounts remain unimpressive given that the better
upper-level support races off to the NE. That said, there is
still enough justification for slight to chance PoPs, or about
15-40% (slight chance of thunder) heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Some patchy fog is possible at ECP/VLD by sunrise. Brief MVFR/IFR
visibilities can`t be ruled out. with any restrictions clearing by
14z. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and light winds are forecast
into the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Surface high pressure east of the region will make for initially
light and variable winds early Saturday before gentle to moderate
westerly breezes develop later this weekend. A backdoor front
sagging southward into the Tri-State area fosters a light to
gentle offshore wind that gradually veers from northwest to
northeast on Monday. High pressure sliding off the Atlantic coast
then produces light to gentle southeast breezes towards mid week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

The airmass will remain dry today, but undergo a temporary
moistening trend this weekend thanks to southwest low-level winds
on the right periphery of surface high pressure. Pockets of near
critically low RH are forecast for parts of SW GA, mainly
along/east of the Flint River Valley where values look to range
from about 25- 30%.

By Sunday, inland min RH rebounds into the 50s with 60+ percent
closer to the coast. However, a backdoor front sagging southward
from Northern GA re-introduces dry air towards I-10, which will
cause dew points to tank and subsequent critically low RH in
northern-tier SW GA counties Monday afternoon.

Given the ongoing severe to extreme drought amidst warming
temperatures and minimal shading of already dry fuels, portions of
SW GA are looking at elevated fire concerns Saturday and Monday
afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 156 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Minimal rainfall is expected over the next several days, so
drought will persist and/or worsen. For more information on our
local drought statement, visit:
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  61  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  53  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  52  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  52  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  53  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  61  75  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3