663
FXUS62 KTAE 272015
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
315 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

- There is an elevated fire danger today and Friday with very low
  relative humidity levels and breezy winds. Use extreme caution
  if dealing with flames outdoors, and follow local burn bans and
  official recommendations.

- A lengthy period of hazardous boating conditions for small craft
  will continue into this weekend with winds of 20 knots or
  greater across the coastal waters.

- A high chance of rain is expected by early next week. This rain
  will be beneficial given the ongoing drought conditions, but
  rainfall amounts and exact timing are still uncertain. The
  heaviest amounts are most likely across the western half of the
  area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Mostly quiet conditions are expected through Friday as surface
high pressure behind yesterday`s cold front fills into the deep
south. Main sensible weather impacts will be much cooler
conditions, continued dry air advection, and another day of breezy
north and northeasterly flow on Friday. Widespread RHs this
afternoon around 15 to 20% will continue on Friday, and with
breezy conditions elevated fire danger will remain.

For tonight, expect much colder overnight lows compared to
Thanksgiving morning. While the surface high will not be
positioned ideally for a radiational cooling setup, the very dry
conditions and clear skies could allow us to decouple (when the
surface cools and a strong inversion develops) and give locations
the light/calm winds necessary for a chilly night. With this in
mind, did blend the forecast towards the cooler MOS guidance for
overnight lows. This should allow most areas to drop to the upper
20s in the colder locations and around freezing elsewhere (except
the coast where temperatures will be a few degrees warmer).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

A fairly active and, for some, welcome change to the overall
weather pattern is looking more likely early next week. The main
highlights of the period will be the first significant widespread
chance for rain we`ve seen in some time.

Period starts out with surface high pressure still well in
control of the sensible weather but as the active and progressive
upper level pattern advances, expect a quickly modifying airmass
as southeast and southerly flow quickly develops late Saturday
into Sunday. This first frontal feature, associated with a weak
upper level trough, will approach the area into Sunday but most
guidance currently stalls this feature somewhere across the deep
south while zonal upper level flow remains. As we move further
into early next week, a stronger upper level system will likely
begin to interact with the old frontal boundary from the weekend
and quickly progress east across the region. This secondary
system, which will move through late Monday into early Wednesday,
is likely the system that brings the more widespread rainfall to
the area. Additionally, depending on the setup of the surface
features and strength of a developing surface low, some severe
potential can`t be ruled out. However, those details will become
more certain over the weekend.

As for rainfall, while model spread continues to remain fairly
high, confidence in rainfall is increased. At the higher end of
rainfall totals (10% chance of occuring) amounts of 2 to 2.5
inches are still on the table by the end of Wednesday with the
highest amounts across our western forecast zones. On the low end
(90% chance of occuring, i.e. what we`re most confident will occur
at a minimum), those totals have increased as well with amounts
increasing this afternoon to around 0.25 to 0.50 inches, again
with the highest totals across the western portions of the
forecast area.

This rainfall would be very beneficial for drought, but even in
the higher end possibilities, it would not be enough to end the
drought as that will take several weeks of above normal rainfall
to even things out.

Looking further ahead into next week, an active storm track looks
possible so further rainfall chances look favorable across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Sustained north/northwesterly winds at around 10 kts with gusts
today around 15-20 kts, calming down after sunset. Clear to mostly
clear skies today with high clouds returning from the west near the
end of the TAF period. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts are present
across the coastal waters today behind a cold front, and a
lengthy period of small craft advisory conditions is anticipated.
Winds will shift to easterly by Saturday but remain near advisory
levels. Winds will continue to veer around to southeasterly ahead
of an approaching cold front on Sunday. This front will bring a
chance of rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Cooler and much drier air will filter in behind a front today in
addition to breezy northwest winds of 10-15 mph with occasional
gusts of 20 mph. These conditions, when considering critically
low RH amidst widespread extreme to exceptional drought, will
bring elevated fire danger today and Friday. Cooler surface
temperatures will limit a greater fire danger threat despite the
critically low relative humidities. Fire concerns begin to
decrease Saturday and Sunday as low-level moisture returns to the
region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 139 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

The next potential rain maker is expected to arrive late this
weekend and into early next week. This system could give the
region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in
some time, but model spread on amounts remains high. The most
likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across portions of
southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle with 0.25-1 inch
values across most of the rest of the area. This would be very
beneficial rainfall, but still not enough to make much of an
impact on drought.

In the meantime, extreme to exceptional drought continues. The
most recent local drought information can be found by visiting
www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   34  56  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   38  58  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        32  55  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        30  55  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      31  56  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    32  60  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  40  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Friday for GMZ730-
     751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs