324
FXUS62 KTAE 060100
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
900 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 856 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Rain-cooled air from this afternoon`s thunderstorms has allowed
parts of the region to cool down a little quicker than forecast.
However, with temps already near dew points, and increasing cloud
cover overnight, temps aren`t expected to drop much more. Thus,
just minor changes over the next couple hours to the temps as
things moderate, no other changes appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Showers with isolated thunderstorms diminish overland, but persist
offshore from the Panhandle tonight as daytime instability wanes.
The presence of a very moist airmass and lifting frontal boundary
from the Gulf will make for a warm/muggy night - lows/Td`s in the
low 70s under some thick cloud cover.

For tomorrow, a coastal surface trough off Jacksonville serves as a
focus for renewed convection initially over NE FL mid-late morning.
This activity then spreads westward to the I-75/I-10 corridors
thanks to long-fetched, brisk easterly flow riding a tight
pressure gradient from a Mid-Atlantic High. Some afternoon
instability warrants the mention of a slight chance for
thunderstorms, which will be capable of gusty winds and locally
heavy downpours.

The combination of cloudiness and peak PoPs in the 44-55% range
looks to keep high temperatures in the mid 80s. Isolated upper 80s
to near 90 degrees are possible where enough cloud breaking can
occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A drying trend occurs during the short-term period as upper-level
ridging/high-pressure aloft develops over the region. High
temperatures respond to the upper height rises and reduced cloud
cover by climbing to the upper 80s. Overnight lows range from the
upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Ridging aloft persists mid-week, then pivots to TX & Desert SW as a
shortwave trough dives to the TN Valley late Thursday or early
Friday. The long-term forecast calls for warm and mostly dry weather
(outside of isolated showers) Wednesday-Thursday, followed by
relatively cooler and even drier conditions heading into the weekend
as a front attendant to the aforementioned shortwave clears the
region.

Wednesday`s high temperatures are in the upper 80s to low 90s, then
drop to the widespread 80s Thursday. Highs decrease a few degrees
further Friday-Sunday with upper 70s for portions of SE AL & SW GA!
Forecast lows follow a similar trend - upper 60s/low 70s to
widespread lower 60s (isolated upper 50s).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 748 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Moderate to breezy easterly winds continue through the TAF period. Ceilings
are forecast to lower this evening into tomorrow morning, with
some potential for IFR ceilings at VLD overnight. Otherwise
widespread MVFR cigs are expected. Tomorrow morning cigs gradually
lift while scattered showers once again move from east to west
across the region throughout the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The Small Craft Advisory was cancelled for nearshore waters from
Ochlockonee River-Keaton Beach-Suwannee River as conditions have
been more reflective of exercise caution, per Buoy 42036. The
advisory remains in effect for remaining local waters westward, sans
St Andrews Bay. As for maritime convection, it will be capable of
waterspouts, locally gusty winds, and reduced visibility from heavy
rain.

CWF Synopsis: A tight pressure gradient maintains advisory
conditions across waters west of the Ochlockonee River with
cautionary levels closer to the Nature Coast through at least early
this week. Chances for thunderstorms are in the forecast as a weak
area of low pressure and attendant front lifts north into the
Mississippi Valley. Small craft should exercise caution mid-week
from moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes. Strong high
pressure building to the north heading into the weekend appears to
reintroduce advisory northeasterly winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A northward-lifting front off the Gulf amidst a moist airmass
maintains cloudy skies with elevated rain chances (+ slight chance
of thunder) through Monday. Pockets of wetting rain are likely,
which should be beneficial to offset the otherwise drying fuels from
ongoing drought and breezy weather. Probability of precipitation
reduces to about 30% or less areawide on Tuesday as the better
forcing pulls away from our region. The only fire concerns are
gusty east winds, especially near convection.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Freshwater: Mentionable rain chances are in the forecast through
Monday with widespread amounts generally around a quarter of an
inch (isolated higher, i.e., Southern Gulf County). Though such
values are not drought busting by any means, any rainfall is
welcomed. Conditions then appear to get drier for the remainder of
the week, so expect moderate to severe drought to continue.

Saltwater: Prolonged brisk easterly winds have resulted in some
elevated water levels across parts of the coastal Panhandle and Big
Bend, per tide stations. Of note, is the Eastern Tip of St George
Island where station SINF1 briefly touched minor flood stage around
3 ft MHHW earlier this afternoon, but trended downward to action
stage as of 154 PM EDT. Such short-duration conditions did not
warrant an advisory. However, trends will be monitored closely this
evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  86  72  88 /  30  50   0  20
Panama City   73  87  72  87 /  30  40  10  20
Dothan        71  86  69  86 /  50  40   0  10
Albany        72  86  70  87 /  20  40   0  10
Valdosta      72  86  71  88 /  10  50   0  20
Cross City    73  86  73  88 /  10  60   0  30
Apalachicola  76  84  75  85 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Monday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751-
     752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3