696
FXUS62 KTAE 111303
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
903 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 902 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

 - One more day of breezy winds with hazardous beach & marine
   conditions. Check the local forecast before entering the water.

 - Widespread low temperatures in the 50s the next few mornings,
   starting Sunday. The first consecutive sub-60 degree days since
   early May for many.

 - A warm and dry forecast next week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 902 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

The forecast is on track. Enjoy the taste of fall while it lasts!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Cyclogenesis occuring near the JAX coast and a strong surface high
off the Mid-Atlantic states maintains a tight pressure gradient
across the region for one more day. Therefore, expect similarly
breezy conditions to start the weekend. A high risk of rip currents
continues at St George Island. Lingering wrap-around moisture
supports a slight chance for isolated showers this morning around
the Valdosta-Madison area. Cloudy skies will be slow to clear east
of the ACF basin as the mean upper-trough axis pivots eastward. The
zonal bifurcation in cloud cover leads to high temperatures ranging
from low 80s roughly along/NW of a Cross City-Tallahassee-Dothan
line and mid-upper 70s elsewhere. For tonight into Sunday
morning, cool-air advection and/or cold- air damning/wedge via
4-8-kt northerly flow drives lows to the 50s for many locations -
coolest across the Wiregrass!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Dry air is reinforced by north winds on the left periphery of a
slowly lifting cyclone off the SE GA/NE FL coast on Sunday with
building high pressure from the west. As such, expect a
comfortably warm, fair-weather day - highs mostly in the low 80s.
Isolated light showers are possible around the I-75 corridor.
Light to calm winds set the stage for good radiational cooling
Sunday night into Monday morning, so look for another round of
widespread 50s. Mostly sunny skies prompt highs to surge into the
low-mid 80s Monday afternoon.

Warm and dry conditions are expected much of next week thanks to a
stout upper ridge building from South TX into the MS Valley. Highs
in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s are
forecast each day. Meaningful moisture return appears to hold off
until the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Conditions begin to clear up today as dry air continues to filter
into the region from the northeast. From west to east terminals will
see cigs lift and eventually clear out as the day progresses.
Given its proximity to an area of low pressure off the Atlantic
Coast, VLD will be the last terminal to see conditions clear out.
Otherwise, another gusty day is expected as a tight pressure
gradient remains in place for one more day. Wind gusts around
20-25 kts remain possible at all terminals. After sunset this
evening winds will begin to weaken as the pressure gradient
weakens.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

An ASCAT pass at 0125Z revealed an extensive area of 23-27-kt NE
winds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters from
Okaloosa-Walton County line to Suwannee River today. Winds and seas
will be slow to subside in Apalachee Bay this evening, so the
advisory was extended from 0Z Sunday to 6Z Sunday east of
Apalachicola, in coordination with the Tampa Bay-Ruskin Office.

CWF Synopsis: Fresh to strong northeast breezes from a continued
tight pressure gradient maintain advisory level conditions for
waters 0 to 60 nautical miles from the coast until this evening or
late tonight. Cautionary boating conditions turn more favorable on
Sunday through much of next week as high pressure ushers gentle to
moderate northerly breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Breezy northeast winds continue today with cloud cover slow to erode
east of the Apalachicola-Flint River basin. On Sunday, clouds linger
around the I-75 corridor with the potential for light showers from
lingering wrap-around moisture west of a lifting low-pressure
system. Otherwise, winds lighten up and turn more out of the north,
thus reinforcing the dry airmass. Relative humidities respond by
bottoming out in the 30s to 40s for most locations. For Monday,
mostly sunny skies amidst 5000+ ft mixing heights foster high
afternoon dispersions for parts of SE AL & SW GA. Minimum RH is
forecast to be mostly in the 35-45% range. Warm and dry conditions
for much of next week may re-introduce elevated fire concerns via
drying fuels despite RH remaining above critical thresholds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next several days.
Drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much
of the Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for
more information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  59  81  58 /  10  10  10   0
Panama City   82  60  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        79  54  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  58  79  56 /   0  10  10   0
Valdosta      75  59  77  57 /  10  10  10   0
Cross City    80  59  82  58 /  10  10  10   0
Apalachicola  78  61  81  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ751-752-
     770-772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3