993
FXUS62 KTAE 011109
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
609 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 609 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight
  through early Tuesday morning for portions of the Florida
  panhandle, mainly near the coast. A tornado or two is possible
  in this area along with gusty winds.

- Beneficial rain is expected from late today through Tuesday. The
  heaviest amounts are most likely across the western and northern
  portions of the area where 1-2 inches are expected. A few small
  pockets that see thunderstorms will likely receive over 2
  inches.

- Marine winds will increase today and tonight with hazardous
  conditions for small craft.

- There is a medium chance for additional beneficial rainfall over
  1 inch late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Low pressure will move through the area with a warm front lifting
northward ahead of it today and tonight, followed by a cold
frontal passage on Tuesday. Widespread rain is expected across the
area, gradually increasing in coverage through the day and
becoming most widespread tonight into Tuesday. This rain is badly
needed with the ongoing drought across the region, but a few
strong to severe storms could also occur along the Florida
panhandle coast late tonight into Tuesday morning. Shear will be
plentiful with the lifting warm front and approaching cold front,
but the main limiting factor will be the amount of instability
that can make it inland. The current thinking is that enough
instability will make it just inland for a low but non-zero risk
of severe weather near the panhandle coast late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Given the amount of shear, a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out in addition to gusty winds.

Elsewhere, rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder will decrease
from west to east through the day on Tuesday as the system exits
the area during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A dry day is expected on Wednesday behind the departing system.
Beyond Wednesday, broad upper level troughing will dig west of the
area with a series of upper level disturbances moving across the
southeast states. Rain chances are expected to return for the end
of the week into the weekend, and a few thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Conditions will gradually deteriorate through the period. A warm
front will develop and sharpen just offshore in the Gulf today. To
its north, light rain will overspread the terminals during the
course of the afternoon, and ceilings will gradually lower. By this
evening into tonight, low level wind shear will become a concern as
strong low level winds develop above the surface. Rain is expected
to increase in intensity overnight with a few embedded thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

High pressure to the north of the waters and a frontal boundary
stalled to the south will continue fresh easterly breezes today
mainly west of Apalachicola to the Okaloosa/ Walton County line,
where small craft operators are advised to exercise caution. Low
pressure northwest of the waters will lift the aforementioned
frontal boundary northward as a warm front tonight with winds
becoming southerly, then clocking around to northwesterly as the
low moves away from the waters. Winds are expected to increase
to over 20 knots west of Apalachicola tonight where a small craft
advisory is in effect. Tranquil boating conditions are expected to
return by Wednesday and continue into Thursday. The approach of
the next storm system will increase winds Friday into Saturday
with a 50% chance of advisory-level conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A wetting rain is expected tonight into Tuesday. This should keep
fire weather concerns low through at least Tuesday afternoon. The
only concern for today is for pockets of low dispersions due to low
mixing heights. A drier airmass will briefly return for Wednesday
and Thursday before another medium chance of wetting rain for
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area
mainly late today into Tuesday. This system will give the region
the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in some
time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across
portions of southeast Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and adjacent
southwest Georgia with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest
of the area. Localized areas of higher amounts over 2 inches due
to thunderstorms are also expected. This will be very beneficial
rainfall, but we will need several of these systems to erase the
large rainfall deficits across the region.

Brisk onshore flow from tonight into Tuesday will lead to
increasing water levels along the Apalachee Bay coast. Given
we`re on the descending end of the astronomical tide cycle
(between the new and full moon) and winds are already clocking
around to offshore prior to the higher of the mixed semidiurnal
tides Tue afternoon, we`re not expecting coastal flooding attm.

Looking ahead, another system may impact the region at the end of
the week into the weekend with a 30-50% chance of an additional 1
inch or greater.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  62  71  38 /  40  90  70   0
Panama City   70  61  71  38 /  60  90  50   0
Dothan        64  56  63  33 /  50 100  50   0
Albany        64  56  65  32 /  40  90  70   0
Valdosta      70  59  71  36 /  40  80  90   0
Cross City    77  62  76  41 /  20  50  80   0
Apalachicola  70  64  73  41 /  40  80  60   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD