744
FXUS62 KTAE 051919
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
219 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms will have the potential
  to become strong this afternoon and evening for the SE FL Big
  Bend region with gusty winds.

- Patchy to areas of fog is likely to develop tonight into the
  early morning hours Saturday. Fog may be dense in some
  locations, particularly the FL SE Big Bend.

- Beneficial rain expected across the region through the
  weekend with additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
  higher amounts around 3 inches from Panama City to Valdosta
  northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Any convective showers/thunderstorms from today should weaken as
we head into the overnight hours. The rain is expected to continue
but will be on the more light/moderate side. The stationary
boundary (warm front) will have lifted into our southern GA
counties and continue east towards the Atlantic coast.

Behind the boundary, we can expect cool temperatures to prevail
with highs in the low to mid 50s for areas along and north of
I-10, with temps in the 60s to the south by the coast and SE Big
Bend. Morning low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to the low
50s, with upper 50s for the SE Big Bend. PoPs overnight tonight
will be light and scattered, mainly confined to our AL and GA
counties. Fog is likely to develop, and may dense in some
locations, on Saturday morning. During the day, Saturday, PoPs
will increase in coverage during the afternoon and evening hours.
It`ll be another round of stratiform showers.

There is some uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts for Sunday.
Models are showing with southwest flow aloft and the right
entrance region of the jet stream, the parameters will be in place
for another round of training showers over the Florida panhandle,
with PWATs above 1.5". During this term, models indicate a
possible up to 2" of rainfall accumulation. There`s a boundary set
up that will determine where the rain goes, either over land, or
remains moreso over our marine zones.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

During the day Monday, a cold front will pass through and clear
out the remaining showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will
fall with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s for Tuesday.
Overnight lows can be expected to be in the mid to upper 30s, with
temps around 40 along the coast. Patchy frost is likely to
develop over the AL and GA wiregrass region and the eastern FL
Panhandle through midweek when we then start a warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

A cold front continues to push eastward across our region with
TLH and VLD currently being impacted with lower cigs/vsbys, and a
transition to north-northwest wind. Cigs are expected to gradually
lift throughout the TAF period. Patchy fog could be possible
tomorrow morning as winds go near calm, potentially introducing
vsby restrictions at all terminals. However confidence in fog,
given overnight cloud cover, is currently too low to include in
the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Winds are beginning to clock around to the northwest as the
surface area of low pressure is traversing east over our waters.
During the overnight hours, winds will be northerly at around 5-10
kts and will increase to around 15kts from the northeast by
Saturday afternoon and decrease again for the night. During this
period, showers and thunderstorms are likely and will continue
through Sunday. A cold front will pass through on Monday, clearing
out the showers. Winds and are expected to increase to cautionary
and advisory level conditions with seas of 3-5 feet. Tranquil
boating conditions will return by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

On and off showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will
continue for Saturday through Sunday. Light transport winds are
expected for the weekend from the north, shifting easterly by
Sunday. Low dispersions are expected for all districts Saturday
and Sunday. Dispersion will improve on Monday following the
passage of a cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Beneficial rain expected across the region through the weekend
with additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts around 3 inches from Panama City to Valdosta northwest.
Thereafter, a dry pattern sets in Monday through much of next
week. Latest US Drought Monitor (Dec 4) has much of the region in
Extreme (D3) to Exceptional (D4) drought; the only change in the
last week is a 1-category improvement from Extreme (D3) to Severe
(D2) in portions of Coffee, Dale, and Henry counties.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   53  56  51  65 /  50  80  60  50
Panama City   52  57  52  68 /  50  90  60  50
Dothan        47  52  46  61 /  70  90  40  30
Albany        48  52  45  60 /  70  90  40  30
Valdosta      51  56  49  63 /  60  80  60  50
Cross City    56  68  54  70 /  30  50  80  70
Apalachicola  55  60  55  67 /  40  80  80  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery