796
FXUS62 KTAE 220553
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1253 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Dense fog is anticipated again tonight, mainly across the
   Florida Big Bend and far south Georgia, with impacts to travel
   through mid to late Saturday morning.

 - Drought persists and/or worsens with little to no rain and
   unseasonably warm temperatures expected through early next
   week.

 - There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance for rain Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Fog remains the main story again tonight ahead of a cold front
forecast to swing through Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of
the front, locally dense fog is anticipated, especially across the
Florida Big Bend later tonight into Saturday morning. Fog remains
possible elsewhere, but it`ll largely depend on how much cloud cover
moves overhead from the west tonight.

Speaking of cloud cover, a stray shower or two is possible from
those clouds Saturday afternoon. Granted, it`s only about a 20%
chance, but it`s better than the zero we`ve had for a while now.
Looking optimistically, it`s worth noting that today`s showers
across Alabama have been a bit more widespread than previously
thought, so that gives some credence to increasing rain chances to
around 20% during the day Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

A weak cold front swings clears the region Saturday night. This
shaves temperatures a degree or two, which puts much of the area
closer to 80 for afternoon highs as opposed to the mid-80s.
Overnight lows, though, will tumble back into the upper 40s and
lower 50s as drier air works into the region. Another cold front
approaches the region Wednesday, bringing with it an opportunity for
rain! Cooler temperatures are in the works behind the cold front for
Thanksgiving with forecast temperatures closer to normal for late
November with highs near 70 Thanksgiving afternoon and lows near 40
Thanksgiving night.

Aloft, an H5 ridge axis extending from the northwestern Gulf into
the the Central Plains will mosey east Sunday into the first half of
next week. This keeps our area dry and warm Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday. A longwave trough dives out of Canada and swings across the
Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday and will push the H5 ridge far
enough south to allow for a cold front to near our area sometime
Wednesday. There remains some question as to the ultimate evolution
of this system, so kept rain chances generally between 20-40% this
far out, with the highest chances across SE Alabama and lesser
chances across the FL Big Bend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Terminals ECP/TLH/VLD have all been bouncing around between IFR
and LIFR vsbys and cigs. Fog at these terminals could be dense at
times, but there`s low confidence in prevailing vsbys under 1SM.
Further north, at DHN and ABY conditions have so far been between
VFR and MVFR, but over the next few hours cigs are expected to
lower between IFR and MVFR. Conditions will gradually improve
after sunrise as a cold front sweeps across the region throughout
today. As a result, MVFR cigs may stick around a bit longer into
the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 921 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Pockets of dense fog are likely to form early Saturday morning
over the cooler nearshore waters, especially the waters along the
Nature Coast. Light to gentle southwesterly breezes will continue
through tonight before turning westerly to northwesterly Saturday
into Saturday night following a cold front. Winds will gradually
shift out of the east by Monday then southerly and increasing to
moderate on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front. Seas remain
favorable at around 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Southwesterly Transport Winds turn more westerly during the day
Saturday as a cold front clears the area. An isolated shower or two
is possible along the front as it moves from northwest to southeast
across the region Saturday afternoon. Mixing heights of 2-3k ft are
forecast the rest of this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon
before increasing to 4-5k ft following the front Sunday afternoon.
MinRH values of 50-60 percent are forecast Saturday afternoon before
dropping to between 35-40 percent Sunday and Monday afternoons.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

There are low (20%) chances for rain Saturday and low-medium (20-
40%) chances Wednesday. That said, little rainfall is expected for
the next 7 days across the area. Even our reasonable high-end totals
for the next 7 days are around 0.50-1.0 inches, which will
unfortunately not alleviate the drought situation.

As of Thursday, November 19, 2025, the US Drought Monitor now has
the area around the Florida-Georgia state line outlined in
Exceptional Drought (D4), which is the highest category on the
drought monitor. This is the first time since the 2011-2012 winter
that any part of our area of responsibility has been outlined in
Exceptional Drought.

For more information on local impacts from drought, please visit
www.weather.gov/LocalDrought.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  63  80  54 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   78  63  78  55 /  10  10   0   0
Dothan        83  57  76  49 /  10  10   0   0
Albany        82  58  78  50 /  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      82  61  80  52 /  10  10   0   0
Cross City    80  62  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  64  76  58 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese