479
FXUS62 KTBW 100000
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
700 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 700 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

-  Record breaking cold temperatures expected Monday night/Tuesday
   morning and possibly some record low maximums on Tuesday.

-  Marine hazards are expected behind the strong cold front for
   Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Most of the showers and thunderstorms have moved off to the east
with partly cloudy skies across the region. The cold front
continues to move toward the area is expected to sweep through
overnight with a period of clouds along and behind the boundary,
along with a few more showers possible. Much colder drier air
will overspread the region behind the front for the first half of
the upcoming week. Current forecast looks on track with no changes
needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail early tonight then some MVFR ceilings
are expected as a cold front moves southeast across the region
late tonight. A few showers could precede and accompany the front
causing some brief MVFR conditions. The boundary will move south
of the TAF sites shortly with VFR conditions expected for the rest
of the Monday. Southwest to west winds at 4 to 7 knots will
continue early tonight, then breezy northwest winds increasing to
10 to 20 knots with some higher gusts will follow the front and
continue through Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 700 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Monday night/Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest morning
across most of the area since January 25, 2025 with record
breaking cold expected. Then with high temperatures only climbing
into the mid 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday we could also set some
new record low maximums.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

The forecast remains on track. Showers and storms are draped across
Florida out ahead of a cold front that is on schedule to arrive
overnight tonight. Periods of showers are expected overnight into
the morning as the cold front finally pushed through. Behind the
front,strong,gusty winds causing hazardous marine conditions are
expected. Clouds will be clearing out as the day goes on Monday.
With clear conditions, temperatures will plummet into historic,
record lows overnight monday into Tuesday morning. The record low
for Tampa on November 11th, is 40 degrees, set in 1892. The
forecast low for Tampa Tuesday morning is currently 39 degrees. If
the forecast stays on track records across the area will likely
be broken. In addition to the actual low temperatures, the feel
like temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the low to mid 20s
north of I-4 and mid 20s to low 30s south of I-4. High
temperatures stay in the upper 50s to low 60s. All in all,
remember the warmth of today, by Tuesday FL will resemble the
arctic. Wednesday morning will also be cold, with widespread 30s
and 40s. However, winds will not be as much of a factor.
Temperatures begin to moderate as the week continues. By Thursday
high temperatures return to the upper 70s and the 80s return by
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 139 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Showers and storms over the waters today ahead of a cold front will
begin to shift overland overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.
Behind the front winds increase to advisory levels and remain
elevated through Tuesday afternoon. The high winds will also cause
increased risk of rip currents and high surf. Overall, marine
hazards remain elevated through at least Wednesday before the
winds begin to diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Fire hazards increase Monday into Tuesday as very dry air settles
over the area. RH values will drop below critical levels Tuesday and
winds will be at borderline RFW criteria. Conditions improve
Wednesday as winds decrease and RH values increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  67  39  61 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  69  74  41  62 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  59  67  36  59 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  62  69  40  61 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  51  62  30  58 /  30   0   0   0
SPG  61  66  43  59 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 AM EST Monday through late Tuesday
     night for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 4 PM EST
     Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal
     waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn