Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
276 FXUS62 KTBW 071407 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 907 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal Risk of Severe Storms with damaging winds and tornadoes possible this evening through Monday morning. - Hazardous marine conditions late Monday into Tuesday. - Cooler and drier conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 The main weather concern that we have seen this morning has been the continued low clouds and patchy fog over the region. Although it has not been as widespread and dense as what we saw on Saturday morning. This was due to some showers moving through the area earlier this morning. Radar is continuing to show some light showers over the Nature Coast and over the eastern gulf waters. The frontal boundary that has been draped across northern Florida will finally move southeastward later today into Monday morning and will produce increasing coverage and intensity of showers and storms across the area. The latest high-res guidance is bringing some strong storms into the eastern gulf waters and west coast of Florida this evening. There is a potential for some severe weather with this line of storms with isolated damaging winds and brief tornadoes possible. SPC has placed most of west central and southwest Florida in a Marginal Risk of Severe Storms through Monday morning. Forecast is tracking well for now with no significant changes needed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 903 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 Areas of MVFR CIGs are impacting TPA/PIE/LAL, with IFR/LIFR CIGs at SRQ/PGD/RSW/FMY. Patchy fog has been limited to the SW FL terminals PGD/FMY/RSW so will hold IFR/LIFR conditions at those terminals through 14Z. Conditions are slow to improve becoming MVFR likely after 17Z. Showers and storms move into the area this afternoon, so will hold VCSH/VCTS starting at 20Z for TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ and 00Z for PGD/FMY/RSW. Winds outside of showers and storms will remain less than 12 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 903 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025 A frontal boundary extending across northern Florida and the northern gulf waters will meander southeastward through the day keeping variable winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through Monday morning. Showers and storms increase in coverage and intensity through the day with numerous showers and isolated storms expected this afternoon/evening and continuing into the early morning hours on Monday. Some of these storms may be severe and have the potential to produce damaging winds and brief waterspouts over the eastern gulf waters. Mariners should use caution and remain weather aware when operating in the eastern gulf waters today. By Monday afternoon, the front pushes southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will clear out the rain and storm chances, but will bring some hazardous boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet for Monday and Tuesday. Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 68 77 55 / 60 80 30 0 FMY 84 70 80 58 / 20 50 50 0 GIF 83 67 77 54 / 50 80 40 0 SRQ 81 67 77 54 / 50 80 50 0 BKV 80 60 75 46 / 60 90 30 0 SPG 78 69 75 57 / 60 80 40 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery