464
FXUS62 KTBW 020721
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
321 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

 - Increasing winds will cause hazardous boating conditions
   beginning today through the weekend.

 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each day
   through at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

In the upper levels, a weak shortwave will continue to dig into the
Florida area through the rest of the week and will then hold in
place through the weekend and early next week, resulting in an
increase in atmospheric moisture. At the surface, a strong ridge
centered over eastern Canada will push south into the eastern
seaboard through the next few days, with a tight pressure gradient
over Florida along the southern fringe of the ridge producing
breezy northeast and east winds each day through at least
Saturday. With the increasing moisture, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms today and Friday will become a bit more
numerous this weekend and into early next week, aided on Saturday
by a weak surface wave moving northwest across southern Florida
into the Gulf. Under east/northeast flow, the pattern will
typically be showers and storms moving east to west across the
area during the afternoon, shifting into the eastern Gulf during
the late afternoon and early evening hours.

During the early to middle portions of next week, high pressure
builds in aloft over Florida. This will allow moisture and rain
chances to moderate slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will hold through the morning. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms will develop during the afternoon and
move west across the area, bringing periods of reduced flight
categories and gusty winds as storms pass over individual
terminals, mainly from around 18z-00z. Rain free conditions will
return by 00z or shortly thereafter, but there will remain a
chance for some MVFR/IFR ceilings remaining overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

High pressure building in from the north is creating a tight
pressure gradient with east and northeast winds increasing to Small
Craft Advisory levels today for the coastal waters north of
Englewood, then expanding to all marine zones by tonight and
holding into the weekend. Seas will also build to around 7 feet or
more offshore with the strongest winds. Otherwise, rain chances
will become more numerous through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Surface high pressure will build into Florida from the north through
the rest of the week, setting up breezy northeast flow. Rain chances
will gradually increase each day. No humidity concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  74  88  74 /  60  10  50  10
FMY  88  72  87  73 /  70  30  60  30
GIF  86  72  86  73 /  60  20  50  30
SRQ  89  72  88  72 /  70  20  50  30
BKV  86  69  86  70 /  50  10  50  10
SPG  86  75  86  75 /  70  20  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Fleming