373
FXUS62 KTBW 160030
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
830 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Mostly quiet conditions locally this evening aside from a cluster
of showers that has blossomed over the interior across parts of
Polk, Hardee and Highlands counties as a result of a westward-
moving outflow boundary from earlier ECFL convection. A few
additional showers are possible in association with the boundary
through the evening as it continues westward before gradually
winding down tonight. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight
with lows from the mid to upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s
central and south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Drier air continues to sit over the area giving us quiet and
slightly cooler weather especially north of I-4. There is just
enough moisture down in SW Florida to produce a shower or two but
most of us will be staying dry today.

As we go through the rest of the week there will be a divide between
more moist air, rain showers, and summer time temperatures to the
south. While the the northern area of our CWA has drier air, less
rain, and slightly cooler air. A great example of this divide is
Thursday and Friday where the Nature Coast has PoPs between 10 to 20
percent while SW Florida are sitting at 60 to 70 percent.

As we get into the weekend moisture will start to return to the the
Nature Coast with the best chance for showers across the whole CWA

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

VFR expected through the period. A few interior evening showers
possible near LAL over the next few hours however no significant
impacts expected currently. Light easterly flow overnight
increases in the morning before turning onshore at coastal
terminals during the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Quiet weather will continue through our week with drier
air in our northern waters. For our southern waters high moisture
will remain which will result in some isolated showers mainly in the
evening and overnight hours. Winds will remain out of the east and
northeast with winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots starting Tuesday
and lasting for rest of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

We will see some drier air north of I-4 through the weekend
which will limit shower chances. However, we will not be close to

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  89  75  89 /   0  10  10  30
FMY  73  90  74  87 /  10  40  30  70
GIF  72  91  72  90 /  10  20   0  30
SRQ  72  90  73  89 /   0  20  20  40
BKV  67  90  68  89 /   0  10   0  20
SPG  75  89  75  87 /   0  10  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana