732
FXUS62 KTBW 281255
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
855 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

It is starting out to be a very pleasant morning across west central
and southwest Florida. Latest visible satellite imagery and surface
observations are showing sunny skies across the area. The winds have
shifted to the north-northeast and some slightly drier air has moved
into the region as seen on the 12Z morning sounding and latest water
vapor imagery. This will limit, but not completely eliminate rain
chances for today. Latest HRRR guidance does show some late
afternoon showers and storms developing over the interior and
traversing southwestward, with the highest coverage over the
interior. Near seasonal temps expected with daytime highs topping
out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Forecast looks good with no changes
needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 854 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

VFR conditions and light north-northeast winds around 5-10 knots
will prevail at all terminals through the period. There`s a chance
of showers and storms starting after 20Z, so will hold VCTS at all
terminals through around 01Z. Clearing conditions expected after
02Z and continuing into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 854 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

High pressure will build back over the waters today and into early
next week with lower rain chances each day. Northerly winds around
10 to 15 knots and seas up to 3 feet expected today and Monday. The
gradient further tightens between Tropical Depression Nine east of
Florida and high pressure to the north for Tuesday through Thursday
with cautionary winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  75  90  76 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  75  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
GIF  91  75  89  74 /  50  20  30  10
SRQ  91  74  89  76 /  40  20  20  10
BKV  93  72  89  71 /  30  10  30  10
SPG  90  77  88  76 /  30  20  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle