077
FXUS62 KTBW 271806
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
106 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northerly winds will produce hazardous boating conditions over
  the eastern Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
  from this afternoon through Saturday morning.

- Much cooler and drier conditions expected late Thursday through
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
Broad troughing continues across the eastern half of the country as
a surface frontal boundary makes its way across the state with a
very thin line of showers moving toward southwest Florida. The fog
and low clouds from earlier this morning have largely lifted as the
boundary continues to push southward, and any areas still seeing low
cloudiness should continue to see improvement. The rest of the day
will feature temperatures remaining steady as some clouds linger
over the region and cooler and drier air begins filtering in from
the north. High pressure builds in tonight on gusty north winds and
this will lead to low temps tomorrow in the mid 30s north to 40s and
lower 50s south. With the breezy winds, the wind chill values will
be a few degrees lower than the temperature but are expected to
remain above criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory. Temperatures will
warm into the 60s under sunny skies for Friday, then we get one more
cooler morning Saturday before highs warm back up near normal
Saturday afternoon.

While Saturday will remain dry, we actually get some rain chances
back in the forecast starting Sunday as the boundary to our south
lifts back northward. This will also lead to warmer and more humid
conditions that continue into early next week as another trough
moves into the center of the country and a surface low develops
somewhere along the northern Gulf coast region. This system will
move northeastward and eventually drag another cold front across the
state Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing another (and higher) chance
for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
VFR conditions have returned to most sites after this morning`s low
clouds and fog, but there is a thin line of showers passing through
the region which could briefly lower cigs again. VFR will return by
tonight, if not before. Gusty north winds will continue for all
sites tonight into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
A cold front will move through the region today, with winds
increasing out of the north and then northeast through Friday. A
Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for all the waters through
early Saturday morning, though winds will stay near exercise caution
levels through Saturday night before diminishing Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025
Drier air will move over the region tonight through Saturday, with
relative humidity values dropping well below critical levels for
Saturday afternoon. Winds will near the sustained 15 mph threshold
for a Red Flag Warning, but conditions are too borderline to issue
one at this time. Moisture then increases for Saturday into early
next week with no further concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  65  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  49  69  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  44  65  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  47  66  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  36  63  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  52  64  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Carlisle