046
FXUS62 KTBW 190744
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
344 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Strong easterly flow driven by the ridging to the north and the
developing low in the Gulf will continue to dictate our weather for
the next couple of days. A pocket of dry air is currently situated
over the state, but a couple of waves of moisture with PWs
approaching 2 inches will move westward across the peninsula
throughout the day. Because of this we have slightly better chances
for precipitation today compared to the past couple of days. Based
on the timing of the moisture, the rain chances will be focused more
during the earlier part of the day, with POPs generally offshore by
the evening time frame. The elevated moisture and corresponding rain
chances will lead to near normal high temperatures today with
everyone seeing upper 80s to lower 90s.

For the latter part of the week, a surface trough and upper level
low pressure located east of the Bahamas will approach the
southeastern coast of the US. While chances of further tropical
development is low, it is expected to bring additional moisture to
the state. POPs for Thursday and Friday are expected to tick up with
elevated rain chances extending through the weekend. PWs throughout
the weekend and even into early next week look to solidly reach
around 2 inches. Even with decent rain chances for the peninsula
over the next several days, QPF values are only in the 1-2 inch
range. Temperatures for the end of the week/weekend will reach into
the lower 90s for most, and into the middle 90s along the Nature
Coast. The elevated humidity will also lead to heat index values
over 100 degrees for much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Stout easterly winds continue this morning with gusts between 25-30
knots expected during the daylight hours. Some MVFR cigs possible
this morning. Then, precipitation chances increase by midday. Left
PROB30 in for the afternoon time frame. Activity will move west of
the area by 22-23Z. Winds will diminish slightly overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Gusty easterly winds continue for the area leading to choppy seas
through Thursday morning. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect,
with SCEC for Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Winds will begin to
diminish some on Thursday afternoon. With the easterly flow, rain
and storm chances will increase each evening as convection moves off-
shore.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Breezy easterly winds are expected for the next couple of days
leading to elevated dispersion values. Substantial moisture remains
in place over the region with minimum RH values between 50-60
percent each day. Rain chances will increase towards the end of the
week and into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  92  77 /  60  20  40  20
FMY  91  76  93  76 /  60  20  60  30
GIF  90  75  90  74 /  60  20  50  10
SRQ  93  76  95  75 /  60  30  50  30
BKV  91  73  92  72 /  60  20  40  20
SPG  92  80  93  80 /  60  30  50  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Flannery