Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
358 FXUS62 KTBW 021729 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1229 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and drier mid week then warming late week. - Next round of unsettled conditions possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 A cold front, currently draped across the panhandle will continue to move south over the peninsula today through tomorrow morning. More showers could develop out ahead of the front as it moves through, though these will be more isolated to scattered in nature. Gusty SW winds are also being observed out ahead of the front. As the front moves out of the area tomorrow, high pressure will build back in, swinging the winds more northerly. This will also help filter in cooler, drier air behind the front. High temperatures tomorrow will range from upper 60s to low 80s and will feel cooler as the day goes on as drier air fills in. Thursday morning will be the coolest morning with temperatures getting down to the 40s and 50s. however, by Thursday afternoon, high temperatures will be back in the 70s and 80s. Just when temperatures begin to moderate, another cold front is expected to move through this weekend. Models are still inconsistent with strength and timing of this next cold front, but current forecast does show a bit more of a cool down compared to this front. In other words, if you do not get any of the rainfall with today`s cold front, there`s always this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Mostly MVFR conditions linger as a cold front makes its way through the area, bringing along low ceilings. Low ceilings will likely continue overnight into early morning before lifting around 14-15Z. Some brief periods of IFR ceilings are also possible overnight. Gusty SW/W winds will begin to diminish overnight and shift more northerly behind the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Unfavorable marine conditions continue through the day as a cold front makes its way over the waters tonight into tomorrow morning. Gusty SW/W winds will shift northerly and decrease tomorrow. Quiet conditions last a until the end of the week. However, another cold front is expected to move through over the weekend, increasing marine hazards once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1226 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 Fire weather concerns remain limited through the period. RH values dip Thursday as drier air filters in behind a cold front. However, values should remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 63 73 55 78 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 65 79 57 81 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 61 76 53 78 / 20 0 0 0 SRQ 63 75 53 78 / 20 0 0 0 BKV 53 72 44 77 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 65 73 58 76 / 20 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley