Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
505 FXUS62 KTBW 250053 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 753 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of locally dense fog will develop during the early morning hours Tuesday and Wednesday, making travel hazardous. - Winds over the coastal waters will increase beginning early Thursday, with hazardous boating conditions continuing through at least the first half of the weekend. - Much cooler and drier conditions will fill in late Thursday and Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 753 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 After a foggy morning, mostly sunny skies allowed temperatures to warm up quickly today, with afternoon highs running several degrees above normal. Winds overnight are forecast to turn to easterly and southeasterly, with high resolution model guidance predicting fog/sea fog tonight will be more limited than it was this morning and largely confined to over the interior. Fog chances will then increase again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The forecast looks on track overall, and no significant changes are planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Mostly VFR conditions are expected to hold through the next 24 hours. There is a possibility of some patchy fog developing overnight, mainly over the interior, but any fog/stratus is expected to stay east of Tampa Bay area terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 123 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 Winds will remain out of the south and southeast for Tuesday and Wednesday around 5 to 10 knots. Some slightly lower dewpoints will result in no sea fog concerns overnight. However, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we will see a cold fort approaching the area. This will result in some fog possible across our water ways. The cold front will push through Wednesday night and even though sea fog won`t be much of a concern winds will be. Winds starting on Wednesday will shift to the north between 15 to 25 knots. These breezy conditions will last through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 123 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025 First half the week will stay warm and moist with the biggest concern being patchy fog Tuesday and Wednesday morning. A strong cold front will push through Wednesday night resulting in drier air filtering in. We will see some critical RHs along the Nature Coast on Thanksgiving. Drier will continue to filter in on Friday bringing critical RH to the whole area Friday afternoon. Winds will remain light through that period so red flag is not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 66 84 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 65 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 62 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 65 83 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 57 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 68 81 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley