Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
390 FXUS62 KTBW 051416 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 916 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of dense fog possible early Saturday morning. - Next round of rain chances for the area expected this weekend. - Cooler temperatures and rain free conditions return early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 907 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 The Florida peninsula remains situated between high pressure to the southeast and a frontal boundary to the north. This will keep west central and southwest Florida in a warm and humid airmass through the day. Partly cloudy skies, above average temperatures in the upper 70`s to mid 80`s, and rain-free conditions expected through the day. No significant changes needed to current forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 907 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 VFR, rain-free conditions and south-southwest winds around 8-12 knots with some higher gusts expected through 00Z, then becoming light and variable overnight. Models are hinting at some early morning low clouds and FG/BR, so will cover this with BKN010 and some VSBY restrictions down to 4 SM in BR for now and will reassess through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 907 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Interaction between high pressure southeast of Florida and a frontal boundary to the north will keep a predominant south-southwest wind flow around 10-15 knots and seas less than 2 feet through Saturday evening. A stray shower may be possible later this evening over the northeastern Gulf. There is also a possibility off some early morning fog over the eastern gulf waters early Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday, rain and storm chances increase as the frontal boundary slowly shifts southward. This will bring scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms over the eastern Gulf waters. By early Monday afternoon, the front pushes southeast of Florida and high pressure builds in from the northwest. This will clear out the rain chances, but will bring some hazardous boating conditions with breezy north-northeast winds around 15-20 knots and seas up to 5 feet for the first half of next week. Pleasant boating conditions expected mid to late next week with winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 81 69 80 67 / 0 10 40 50 FMY 83 67 83 68 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 84 66 83 66 / 0 10 40 40 SRQ 79 68 80 67 / 0 10 20 30 BKV 83 63 80 60 / 10 20 50 60 SPG 78 70 78 68 / 0 10 40 50 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle