Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
212 FXUS62 KTBW 150020 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 720 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a medium chance of patchy ground fog across the Nature Coast tonight/tomorrow morning and a low chance elsewhere. - There is a medium to high chance of fog areawide beginning with Sunday morning and lasting through at least mid-week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 711 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 Benign fairly typical November pattern will continue through the weekend with surface high pressure centered over the region with light winds and clear skies through Sunday. Strong radiational cooling each night will allow patchy ground fog to develop, mainly across the nature coast and interior, for the next few nights. Seasonable temperatures expected Saturday and Sunday with daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s...and overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the nature coast, and in the mid 50s to around 60 central and south. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 An upper-level ridge remains to the west of the Florida peninsula as a broad area of surface high pressure stretches from the mid- Atlantic region to the central Gulf coast. A very light ENE background flow continues at the surface in response. This flow is so light that the sea breeze is beginning to develop along the coast, turning the winds onshore. However, the thermal gradient between the land and the water is not drastic. Thus, this breeze is relatively light overall. This setup is pretty static for the next few days. The upper-level ridge will slowly propagate eastward, but generally looks to flatten through early next week. The surface high will sink farther south over Florida in response, gradually veering the low-level flow to a more ESE direction by early next week. This will allow for gradual warm air and moisture advection in the lowest km or so. As a weak front approaches early next week and falls apart with upper-level support remaining well the north, there could be just enough moisture for a few sprinkles. However, the more likely impact will be morning fog. While there was some fog this morning across the Nature Coast (and likely some more again tomorrow), conditions will be much more favorable across most of the region by Sunday. Lasting through probably much of next week, the light winds, mostly clear skies, efficient radiational cooling, and sufficient low-level moisture favor the develop of radiational fog each day. This is the primary weather hazard for the next week. Otherwise, weather conditions look to be pretty benign. Most days should be sunny. Afternoons will continue to get warmer, but the evening and overnight periods will feel pretty nice. There are no significant changes to this pattern for the next seven days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 Quiet, VFR weather prevails through the TAF period. A low potential (around 10%) for some shallow/patchy fog remains tomorrow morning. Given the low probability, there is still no mention in TAFs at this time. The probability of fog will increase for subsequent mornings starting with Sunday and lasting into next week. Otherwise, no significant aviation concerns are expected at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 Primarily VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours. Some patchy late night/early morning fog may briefly create MVFR VSBYS around sunrise, with the best chance at PGD/LAL. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 Light winds and seas continue as dry, high pressure remains in place. Some land-based fog could meander over inshore waters during the early morning hours for the next few days reducing visibilities briefly. This will quickly dissipate once the run rises. Conditions otherwise remain nice for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 147 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 Dry weather continues for the next week, with an increasing likelihood for at least patchy fog across the area beginning on Sunday morning. Some patchy fog is possible across the Nature Coast tomorrow morning as well. Otherwise, fire weather concerns are low. Despite the drier weather, RH values are increasing and winds remain light. Red flag conditions are not anticipated at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 58 80 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 57 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 55 81 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 56 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 48 79 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 61 77 63 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana