Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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820
FXUS62 KTBW 241908
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
308 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Tuesday)...
High pressure ridging across south Florida will meander
north to across central Florida overnight through Tuesday
with the pocket of dry air remaining across much of the
local area from the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will continue from
the SW across the northern zones, with flow turning more to
the S/SE central and E/SE south for Tuesday. Isolated to
scattered rain chances will be in place with the highest
chances north, and timing continuing in the early morning
near the coast and pushing inland for the northern zones,
with later morning/early afternoon development for the
central and southern zones Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast, and in the lower
to mid 70s inland. Highs Tuesday will be a little warmer,
mainly in the lower to mid 90s except upper 80s at the
beaches.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night-Monday)...
An U/L subtropical ridge will hold over the Florida
peninsula on Wednesday. A weak U/L trough will sink over
the southeast U.S. Wednesday, and north Florida on Thursday
and Friday...suppressing the U/L ridge over central and
south Florida. Over the weekend, a strong U/L disturbance
will approach the mid Atlantic coast with a L/W trough
digging along the eastern seaboard and Florida peninsula.
This will completely suppress the subtropical ridge south of
the forecast with lowering heights over west central and
southwest Florida. Large scale subsidence will weaken...with
deep west to southwest flow developing late in the period
over the eastern. Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Quite a bit of
uncertainty remains in the extended as the GFS remains more
amplified than the ECMWF.

At the surface, high pressure ridge axis will extend across
south central Florida Wednesday through Friday with
continued onshore west to southwest flow each day. This
pattern favors scattered late night/early morning
showers/thunderstorms to develop over the coastal waters
advecting locally onshore during the morning, spreading
inland during the afternoon. Pocket of slightly drier air
aloft is expected to be wedged over the area Wednesday
through Saturday which will act to decrease areal coverage
of shower/thunderstorm activity each day with below climo
POPs. Increasing deep layer southwest flow late in the
weekend into early next week should allow deep layer
moisture to recover with increasing POPs Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above
climatic normals through the mid/long range period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers are developing in the vicinity of the terminals this
afternoon and will continue to be possible through around
01z this evening. Skies will clear out as winds become light
and variable. Light E/SE flow Tuesday morning will become
SW in the late morning/early afternoon with some isolated
showers possible near the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will ridge across the peninsula through the
period. The ridge axis will meander a bit north to across
central Florida overnight and Tuesday, putting some E/SE
flow in across the southern waters, but otherwise winds will
remain mainly from the SW through the period. This will
keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast each day. Wind
speeds and seas will remain light through the period except
in the vicinity of the scattered storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  92  79  92 /   0  10  10  30
FMY  77  94  77  93 /  10  30  30  40
GIF  76  95  76  95 /  10  30  10  40
SRQ  77  92  78  91 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  73  92  74  92 /  10  10  10  30
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/Oglesby



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