Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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757
FXUS62 KTBW 030752
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
352 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
MORNING. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDING HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO THE EAST...SEVERAL
SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS  TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST...AS A STRONG UPPER CYCLONE DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
HAVE LINGERED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CHARLOTTE INTO
GLADES COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME...DRIVEN BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
EMANATING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNRISE...AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PENINSULA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY AGAIN TODAY...WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE LOOKS TO MOVE INLAND EARLY
TODAY...RESULTING IN GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PENINSULA. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE NATURE COAST. WITH INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT...STORM MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF ANY SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY KEEP MOST OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR...SHOULD STORMS PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON...A STRAY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

SEABREEZE-INDUCED CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...AS IT SHIFTS OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST. A LULL IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ROUGHLY FROM MID
EVENING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ENCROACH ON THE REGION...DRIVING A STRONG LATE SEASON
FRONT SOUTHWARD. AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVERSPREADS THE EASTERN
GULF...SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...WITH
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE OR
MORE FRONTALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS APPEAR
POSSIBLE...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WAVE OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO
MUCH OF THE STATE.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEEDS OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED WIND
SHEAR...SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION. DESPITE SOMEWHAT MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT...BUT
ONE WORTH MENTIONING. SHOULD AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AS ALWAYS...DEADLY
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY MOST STORMS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS FILLING INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  HIGH AMPLITUDE
U/L BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CUT-OFF LOWS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND
CALIFORNIA COASTS...WITH STRONG RIDGING THROUGH THE PLAINS.  THE
DEEP EAST COAST U/L LOW WILL ALSO CREATE ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BEGINS TO
LIFT AND KICK OUT THE LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE WEST
COAST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE
NEXT UPSTREAM NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALSO CAUSE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA.

AT THE SURFACE...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FLORIDA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS...AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEAST ALLOWING L/L MOISTURE TO INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE FROM KLAL TO KSRQ SOUTHWARD. ONGOING AREA OF SHRA
SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...AFFECTING PRIMARILY KRSW/KFMY...AND
POSSIBLY KPGD BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS TO VSBYS MORE LIKELY AT
KLAL AND KPGD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY LATE
MORNING...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR SCT TSRA
LOOKS TO SHIFT INLAND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE SEABREEZE...AND WILL
ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KLAL FROM 18Z ON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING....BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
SOLID CAUTIONARY TO BORDERLINED ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS THEN LOOK TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL AFTERNOONS OF LOW
HUMIDITIES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...WINDS APPEAR BORDERLINED FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. A RETURN TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND ALLEVIATING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  80  65 /  20  50  70  10
FMY  90  74  85  66 /  30  20  70  20
GIF  89  72  81  62 /  40  30  70  10
SRQ  85  76  81  66 /  20  40  70  20
BKV  87  70  81  59 /  20  60  70  10
SPG  85  75  80  68 /  20  50  70  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/AUSTIN
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY



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