Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 271321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
921 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis this morning shows a
low entering the Pacific Northwest with another trough moving
through the Central Plains, with ongoing active weather in that
region. Farther east, the pattern is a bit more complex, with high
pressure extending northward over much of the Gulf of Mexico,
with its eastern periphery just to the west of Florida, and a weak
low centered over the Bahamas. Flow aloft between these last two
features is northerly, and this is clearly evident on the morning
KTBW sounding. Also notable on the sounding and water vapor is
the large amount of dry air above 800 mb.

At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the western
Atlantic, extending westward over the U.S. east coast and over
Florida and into the Gulf. This will continue to bring easterly
winds over the area. In addition, a weak surface low continues to
spin between Bermuda and the Bahamas, but this is having little
effect on our weather.

For the rest of today, easterly winds will remain in place, but
there should be a bit more of a sea breeze penetration today than
the past couple of days. Expect moisture to continue to increase,
especially for the southern half of the forecast area. This should
lead to shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and
evening, with the best chances along the west coast from around
Sarasota southward during the late afternoon and early evening
hours. This will be where the greatest convergence will be from
the see breeze and the easterly winds. Any leftover shower and
thunderstorm activity will shift offshore later this evening as
the sea breeze circulation collapses.

Have updated the forecast to reflect the above thinking, with an
update to come out shortly.


VFR conditions are generally expected through the forecast period.
The exception would be any restrictions possible in thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. The best chances are for KSRQ, KPGD,
KFMY, and KRSW. The big question for today will be how far east
the sea breeze reaches. Currently do not show it reaching KTPA,
electing to keep winds variable there, but do have it reaching
KSRQ and KPIE. This will be the main challenge for today and will
continue to monitor and amend if needed.


With high pressure to the north, easterly winds will remain in
place for the next couple of days, but will become onshore in the
afternoon with the sea breeze. Wind speeds could approach exercise
caution criteria overnight into the early morning hours but should
otherwise remain below headlines. Some shower and thunderstorm
activity can be expected during the late evening hours.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  72  89  73 /  20  10  30  20
FMY  90  71  91  72 /  30  30  40  20
GIF  88  70  91  71 /  20  10  40  20
SRQ  87  71  87  72 /  30  20  30  10
BKV  89  66  90  67 /  20  10  30  10
SPG  88  74  89  75 /  20  20  30  20


.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Gulf waters...None.


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