Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 240749
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
349 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

..Gusty Winds With Slightly Cooler Temperatures Expected Today...

.SHORT TERM (Today - Tuesday)...
Water vapor loop shows a closed upper level low over north-central
Alabama early this morning. This closed low and an attendant weak
surface low over northeast Georgia will move off the southeast U.S.
coast through early tonight, and will then lift slowly north up
along the eastern seaboard through Tuesday. A trailing cold front
from this storm system now over the Big Bend region will continue to
move south moving through the Nature Coast toward sunrise, and then
through the Bay area during mid morning, and then exiting to the
south of the forecast area during early afternoon.

Limited moisture along and ahead of the front should only support
some isolated showers (Pops 20 percent) through early afternoon with
its passage with limited rainfall amounts expected. As the front
moves through northwest winds will increase and become gusty by mid
to late morning and into the afternoon which will make for hazardous
boating conditions on the adjacent Gulf waters as well as on area
lakes. In addition to the winds considerable post-frontal moisture
via model cross-sections will support a good deal of clouds (mostly
cloudy skies) across the region through the day, especially along
the coast.

Given the expected increase in winds will hoist a Lake Wind Advisory
for the area lakes from noon through early this evening. Cool air
advection in the wake of the front combined with considerable post
frontal cloudiness will support cooler temperatures across the
region today compared to previous days with highs topping out in the
mid 70s north, and upper 70s to around 80 central and south.

Tonight drier air in the wake of the front will support clearing
skies and cooler conditions across the entire forecast area with
slowly diminishing winds as weak high pressure takes hold, with
overnight lows falling into the upper 50s across the Nature Coast,
and around 60 to the lower 60s central and south.

On Tuesday zonal flow aloft and weak surface high pressure will
support pleasant dry weather across the forecast area with ample
sunshine. Temperatures on Tuesday will return to near seasonal norms
with afternoon highs reaching around 80 to the lower 80s area wide
during the afternoon with west wind in the 10 to 15 mph range.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night - Sunday)...
By the middle of the week, a shortwave trough positioned over the
Carolina coast will be moving away from Florida, while weak mid-
level high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico slides east into
Florida. At the surface, Atlantic high pressure ridging across the
Florida Straits Tuesday night will gradually lift north into Florida
through the rest of the week, keeping dry and stable conditions in
place. With the high pressure building into the area both at the
surface and aloft, temperatures will increase through the second
half of the week, with maximum temperatures forecast to reach into
the low 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast each afternoon
beginning on Thursday.

By the end of the week, the upper level pattern will become much
more meridional as a deep trough digs into Four Corners region and
the ridge over Florida amplifies. This more dynamic pattern will
bring in increased atmospheric moisture from the Gulf and allow for
a slight chance of showers both Saturday and Sunday afternoons,
although there does not look to be enough instability to allow for
heavy or widespread rainfall anywhere in the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR cigs are expected to develop at all terminals sites the
remainder of the morning and lasting through at least 19Z as a cold
front approaches and moves south through the region. Some light
showers will accompany the front and have include VCSH at all sites
between 15-18Z to cover this. VFR will return after 19Z but strato-
cu clouds with cigs around 050 will linger through 00Z. Northwest
winds at 5 to 7 knots early this morning will increase to 12 to 15
knots after 15Z, then increase further to 18 to 20 knots with gusts
up to 28 knots possible after 18Z. Northwest winds will diminish to
10 to 12 knots after 02Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
A storm system over the southeast U.S. this morning will help to
pull a cold front south through the eastern Gulf waters today. As
the front moves south through the waters winds will become northwest
with speed increasing into the Cautionary range by mid to late
morning with hazardous marine conditions developing for small craft
operators. Given these expected conditions will raise cautionary
headlines for all of the waters in the next marine forecast package
later this morning. In addition, the gusty onshore flow and building
seas and surf with bring a high risk of rip currents to area beaches
this afternoon through early Tuesday morning and will issue a
Coastal Hazard Message to address the threat of rip currents later
this morning.

Tonight into Tuesday winds will back to the west as the above
mentioned storm system lifts slowly out to the north along the
eastern seaboard with wind speeds diminishing into the 10 to 15 knot
range. During Wednesday through Friday high pressure from the
Atlantic extending west across the central peninsula will support a
lighter southeast to southerly wind flow over the Gulf waters with
an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite some drier air moving into the region today in the wake of a
cold front humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels. On Tuesday and through the remainder of the week some
pockets of humidity values at or below 35 percent will be possible
over interior locations each afternoon, but lighter winds and ERC
values below critical levels should preclude red flag conditions.

Gusty 20 foot winds and transport winds today will support high
dispersion indices across the region. The strong and gusty winds
will also create hazardous conditions near any ongoing fires around
the region. Winds are expected to slowly diminish on Tuesday and
through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds in over
the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  66  79  66 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  81  66  81  63 /  20   0   0   0
GIF  80  60  82  62 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  76  66  78  64 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  76  58  80  59 /  20   0   0   0
SPG  77  67  77  69 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Tuesday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-
     Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland
     Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming



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