Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280049 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
849 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DID FORM THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL BUT
DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. 00Z KTBW RAOB CONTINUED TO SHOW DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH AROUND 400MB ACROSS THE AREA. THE SOUNDING
ALSO REVEALED A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE ALOFT COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...THE PWAT VALUE OF 1.46 INCHES IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING. HOWEVER DID
REMOVE ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THAT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OFFSHORE BEFORE
PUSHING INLAND NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A VERY WARM...MUGGY
AIR MASS.

TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE
THE HEAT AS TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THAT
COMBINED WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICIES TO
APPROACH 105 IN SOME AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW
TO CARRY ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH/VCTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
WAVES AS THE FRONTAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS SO WILL ADD MENTION OF SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THAT AREA ON
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  40
FMY  77  92  77  92 /  20  30  10  30
GIF  76  94  76  93 /  10  20  10  40
SRQ  79  91  79  91 /  20  20  10  40
BKV  74  94  75  93 /  20  30  20  50
SPG  81  92  81  89 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE





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