Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280811
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

...WET DAY AHEAD AS GULF DISTURBANCE HEADS FOR FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY - WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE HAS DEPARTED SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA FOR ITS SHORT
JOURNEY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. A REMNANT BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PLENTY
OF SURFACE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THE GULF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY STRONG WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS CARRYING A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY IN THEIR DAY 1 OUTLOOK /SWODY1/.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER TODAY AND
KEEP THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THAT
BEING SAID...THE GFS IS FORECASTING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND OR ABOVE
1000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BE PLENTY
TO COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE GULF DISTURBANCE TO
CREATE SOME STORMS. SLIGHTLY WARMER 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL HELP
LESSEN THE HAIL THREAT TODAY COMPARED TO THE ACTIVE LARGE HAIL DAY
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EXPERIENCED ON MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR
RAIN CHANCES TO BEGIN FALLING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILDER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD SO A BLEND WILL BE USED. A POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A CLOSED LOW SINKS SOUTH FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS WITHIN THIS TROUGH
WITH THE CLOSED LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DURING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN ITS WAKE. DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH A SLOW INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED (POPS 20 PERCENT) AFTERNOON
SHOWERS ON MONDAY ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS INTO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY...THEN
CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR/LIFR IN
HEAVIER RAIN TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FOR MARINERS TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP
ON WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING A NEED FOR SCEC OR A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS THE WEEK
CONTINUES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO EXPECTED WETTING
RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  73  83  68 /  80  60  60  20
FMY  89  74  86  71 /  70  50  80  30
GIF  83  70  83  66 /  80  70  60  20
SRQ  82  75  84  69 /  70  60  60  20
BKV  82  68  83  62 /  80  50  50  30
SPG  82  73  82  70 /  80  60  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL


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