Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 220001 AAA
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
701 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Much of the area is dry at the present time although we do
have a few very isolated showers in place, mainly across
the Nature Coast. Shower activity should continue to
diminish this evening and overnight. Will continue slight
chance of shower wording through midnight and then after
that the area is expected to remain dry into Wednesday
morning. Biggest weather concern tonight and into early
Wednesday will be the potential for fog, some locally dense,
across the region. The majority of model guidance is pretty
aggressive with fog formation across west-central and SW
Florida. Given the light winds and ample low-level moisture
in place certainly cant argue with this thinking. For the
evening update, have added areas of dense fog into the zones
for all of the Nature Coast and areas along and east of the
I-75 corridor. Also increased cloud cover some given the
high likelihood of low clouds around daybreak. Lows will be
mild overnight, about 5-10 degrees above normal, with upper
50s to upper 60s expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR ceilings are expected into early tonight, then
late tonight into Wednesday morning conditions will
deteriorate with MVFR and eventually IFR/local LIFR
conditions in low clouds and fog anticipated. Conditions
will improve during the mid to late morning hours Wednesday
with VFR prevailing once again. Winds overnight will be
light and variable and this will continue into Wednesday. By
mid-afternoon Wednesday winds will become more onshore at
coastal terminals.


&&

.MARINE...
Gradient has relaxed as high pressure off the southeast U.S.
coast continues to move further out into the Atlantic
Ocean. Winds will remain rather light tonight through
Wednesday then begin to increase some as low pressure
develops over the central gulf and moves east late in the
week. At this time wind speeds are expected to remain around
15 knots or less through Saturday, then could reach
exercise caution criteria Sunday behind the next cold front.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  67  80  67  76 /  20  30  40  70
FMY  66  83  66  80 /  10  20  20  60
GIF  63  81  64  77 /  20  30  20  70
SRQ  65  80  65  76 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  59  79  62  75 /  20  40  40  70
SPG  66  79  67  76 /  20  30  30  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...11/McKaughan
UPPER AIR...14/Mroczka
DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka



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