Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 292349
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
749 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
What a difference a day makes. Yesterday we were much drier than
normal which resulted in just isolated late afternoon and evening
storms. Today moisture returned in earnest with showers and storms
already ongoing before the sun came up. The atmosphere definitely
wanted to rain today, and some showers and storms continue even
now. The decaying sea breeze boundary is still active across
Citrus and eastern Levy counties. An outflow boundary is moving
westward through Polk county generating a few more showers and
storms there.

With the atmosphere so moist and boundaries floating around, can`t
rule out a few showers and storms through midnight. After that,
expect activity to develop offshore as the land breeze sets up.

Drier air will once again be moving toward the region from the
Atlantic on Saturday, but the battleground between moist and dry
may well set up along the west coast sea breeze boundary resulting
in a band of showers and storms near I-75 during the afternoon.
Models have not been consistent in their handling of whether the
dry air moves over the state or slides by to our east as it rounds
the Atlantic ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
Should be VFR through Saturday morning with some risk of patchy
shallow ground/field fog near PGD and LAL. Showers and storms will
bring chances for MVFR/IFR conditions again 15-00Z Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and slight seas will persist through Saturday, then
some increase in easterly winds likely during Sunday as an
easterly wave moves by to the south. Expect winds to remain near
or below 15 knots through Wednesday, except in the vicinity of
thunderstorms.

&&


.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Jillson
UPPER AIR...McMichael
DECISION SUPPORT...Rude


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