096
FXUS65 KTFX 150017
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
517 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Periods of mountain snow and lower elevation rain possible
   through Saturday morning.

 - Mild temperatures and unsettled weather will continue through
   next week with periods of mountain snow and lower elevation
   rain and snow possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 240 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

A cold front is currently making its way south out of Canada
bringing some breezy conditions and precipitation to the region.
Snow levels are expected to drop down to 2500-3000ft this evening
bringing a chance for some light snow at lower elevations along
the eastern portion of the Hi-Line.

Transient ridging will keep the region mild and generally drier
through the weekend before an upper level trough comes onshore
along the west coast Sunday night into Monday. This trough will
make its way across the western CONUS bringing unsettled weather
to Montana with mountain snow and lower elevation rain/snow
possible through the middle of the week. In the wake of this
trough, a more unsettled pattern starts to set up with the
potential for more rounds of precipitation and cooler weather
possible heading towards the second half of the month.


 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Wind Today:

While gusts up to 35 mph are likely across much of north-central
Montana, the concern for high winds has ended as the latest round
of hi-res guidance shows stronger winds staying aloft through the
evening. Thus the High Wind Warning was cancelled.


Rain/Snow Tonight:

Periods of mountain snow and lower elevation rain will continue
through the rest of the day. In general, snow accumulations below
7000ft are expected to be on the lighter side. Above 7000ft there
is the potential for heavier snow in the Glacier National Park
area, however, since it is well above pass level and unlikely to
cause impacts no products will be issued with this forecast.

Later tonight snow levels start to drop as the cold air filters
down from Canada with a chance for lower elevation snow along the
Hi-Line east of Havre. In general, snow amounts are not expected
to amount to much but the highest chances for amounts over an inch
are along northern Blaine county and the Bears Paw. Significant
travel impacts are not expected at this time so no products will
be issued at this time.


Rain/Snow Monday through Wednesday:

Widespread unsettled weather is expected through most of next
week. Currently the NBM is showing a 30% probability of the
Continental Divide and the mountains of central and southwest
Montana receiving more than 2 inches of snow Monday through
Wednesday. There is still a bit of uncertainty in the track of
this system and how far south the colder air is able to reach so,
for now, the finer details remain a bit hazy but this will be the
next item to watch in the long-term forecast.   -thor


&&

.AVIATION...
15/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF
Period except for the KHVR terminal. At the KHVR terminal there will
be MVFR level ceilings after 15/04Z and they will continue
through at least 15/19Z. During that time period there is a low
chance that ceilings will briefly dip to IFR levels. At the KCTB
and KHVR terminals there is a 20 - 60% chance for rain and/or a
rain and snow mix from the beginning of this TAF Period through at
least 15/12Z. During the beginning of this TAF Period through
15/18Z there will be instances of low-level wind shear and
mountain wave turbulence across North-central, Central and
Southwestern Montana. Through at least 15/12Z there will be mountain
obscuration primarily across Southwestern Montana. -IG


The KWYS TAF will not be issued until airport operations resume
next spring.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  45  59  34  53 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  34  54  30  48 /  30  10   0   0
HLN  40  57  33  53 /  10  10   0  10
BZN  35  58  30  53 /  10   0   0  20
WYS  30  48  27  46 /  30  10  10  70
DLN  33  56  30  51 /   0   0   0  20
HVR  30  53  27  51 /  60  40   0   0
LWT  37  58  33  56 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls