892
FXUS65 KTFX 222042
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
142 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front this weekend, with more
  widespread windy conditions Monday.

- Precipitation picks up along the Continental Divide Sunday afternoon,
  with a cold front spreading precipitation farther east Monday.

- Colder temperatures with additional rounds of snow/rain
  throughout the Thanksgiving Week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

 - Meteorological Overview:

Mostly dry today, except for a very low end chance for a few
sprinkles underneath the chinook arch across the Rocky Mountain
Front. A 50kt mid level jet along the Rocky Mountain Front
foothills will keep gusty conditions there this afternoon and
Sunday. Westerly flow aloft will advect in moisture Sunday, which
will bring light precipitation to the Continental Divide and the
Rocky Mountain Front. A shortwave trough coming on shore in the
Pacific Northwest will increase precipitation along the
Continental Divide Sunday afternoon and evening as that shortwave
propagates east. The arrival of the cold front late Sunday night
through early Monday morning and the shortwave following behind
will bring better chances for scattered to widespread rain/snow
showers across the region. The arrival of the shortwave aloft will
also bring gusty winds across the region, with the strongest
gusts along the Rocky Mountain Front. Mountain snow and lower
elevation rain/snow continue periodically behind the front
throughout the day Monday, winding down early Tuesday morning.

Northwest flow aloft will bring a few additional rounds of light
mountain snow and lower elevation rain/snow through the
Thanksgiving Week. Temperatures are also expected to cool to near
to below averages by mid week. Next weekend, ensembles hint at
another system bringing in colder temperatures and snow. Though
there are big differences in timing/location of this trough and
how much cold air it brings. It`s hard to pinpoint details now but
it can impact post- Thanksgiving travel.

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

Winds Monday:

It seems like the mid level jet is not as strong as it has been in
previous runs. Right now, guidance has this jet reaching isolated
45-50kts. This mid level jet arriving during the day Monday will
be good timing for vertical mixing to take place as well with the
cold front passage bringing stronger winds. Therefore, I can`t
rule out an isolated chance for a high wind gust. However,
confidence is not high enough to issue any High Wind Products at
this time, but it`s worth to keep monitoring. Probabilistic
guidance also supports this, giving a 10-30% chance for 58 mph
east of the immediate Rocky Mountain Front foothills.

Snow at the Beginning of the Week:

It still looks on track for the Eastern Glacier Park Region
receiving the bulk of the snow Sunday through Tuesday morning.
Probabilities for 6" are around 70% and a 30% chance for 9" of
snow along Marias Pass. The main uncertainty in snowfall totals
is that marginal temperatures and warm pavements will make snow
struggle to accumulate at first Sunday night through Monday
morning. The heaviest period of snowfall still looks to be Monday
afternoon through early evening, where more moderate snowfall
rates can help stick accumulations to roadways. I have good
confidence for minor to moderate impacts along Marias Pass, so
I`ve issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Eastern Glacier
Park Zone. Peak winds look to be before the more moderate snow
rates comes in, but winds will be a little gusty throughout the
day. Therefore, there may be some instances of blowing snow and
reduced visibilities.

One area to watch is some recent guidance indicate a band of snow
developing along the northside of that low pressure tracking a bit
farther south along the Hi-line. Impacts will depend on where the
low tracks and the time of day when this band develop. If it does
track a bit farther south but happens in the afternoon, then it`ll
mostly be rain/a mix. If it sticks around later into the night, then
there may be more light accumulations up to of a few inches.
Depending on the low track, Winter Weather Advisories may be
needed for King`s Hill Pass and the Bear`s Paw as well.
Uncertainty in how much QPF falls made me held off on the issuance
for now in those areas for now. -Wilson

&&

.AVIATION...
22/18Z TAF Period

While some mid and upper level clouds will remain over the area
over the next 24 hours, expect VFR conditions to prevail with
winds steady as well. Winds will generally be out of the south
across Southwestern Montana with winds slightly stronger across
the plains with a more westerly component. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  55  37  44 /  10  10  20  60
CTB  38  49  29  36 /   0  10  20  80
HLN  29  49  32  40 /   0   0  20  60
BZN  22  49  28  42 /   0   0  10  70
WYS  17  43  22  34 /   0   0  10  80
DLN  25  49  29  40 /   0   0   0  30
HVR  33  54  27  39 /   0  10  20  80
LWT  34  57  32  43 /   0  10  10  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 11 PM MST Monday
for East Glacier Park Region.

&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls