Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTFX 091602
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
900 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE... OTHER THAN SOME SMALL AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN WESTERN
GLACIER COUNTY AND OVER PARTS OF THE HILINE WEST OF HAVRE, SKIES ARE
CLEAR ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING. WE`LL SEE A MIX OF CLEAR SKIES
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FOR THE CENTRAL AND
HILINE COUNTIES. TEMPS WON`T WARM NEARLY AS MUCH, ONLY TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOW 50S, IN THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS WHERE COLDER AIR CONTINUES
TO POOL WITH NO VERTICAL MIXING TO PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMING.
NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER N AMERICA WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SW US NORTH INTO BC TODAY AND EXPECTED TO ONLY
SLIGHTLY DE-AMPLIFY WHILE GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE SAME POSITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL WARMING ALOFT TODAY WILL PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND NEAR OR
ABOVE RECORD VALUES IN MANY LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MT. SW MT VALLEYS WILL SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT
NOT NEARLY AS WARM DUE TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MIXING.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME WED AND THURS TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN MILD AND WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. HOENISCH

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS HAVE
SHOWN. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A LOW PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MT. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE PLAINS. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...BUT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.10
INCHES...WHICH IS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL. ON
MONDAY...THE GFS MOVES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...RESULTING IN SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MT. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSE TO HIGH WIND CRITERIA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY BUT SEASONABLE.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH 40S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS MORE COMMON THAN 50S THOUGH.
BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MT THROUGH 17Z THIS MORNING...BUT FOR
NOW I HAVE KEPT FOG OUT OF THE HELENA/BOZEMAN TERMINALS. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  62  36  56  36 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  56  29  48  33 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  46  20  43  24 /   0   0   0   0
WEY  39  12  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  46  26  45  27 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  60  29  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  55  35  52  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.