Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 261026
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
426 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A summer time upper level ridge of high pressure will generally
reside over the region for the next week or so. As a result,
expect above normal temperatures to prevail through at least early
next week. There will be a chance for a passing thunderstorm,
mostly today through Friday. Some of the stronger storms could
produce frequent lightning and strong wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...The summer time weather pattern with a
strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the western US will
continue. However, weak upper level disturbances will rotate
around the upper level high. As a result a few storms will move
northward into Southwest MT this afternoon and possibly as far
north as Central MT by this evening. On Thursday, expect similar
conditions, expect a better chance for thunderstorms to move as
far north as the northern portions of Central MT. The main threat
from any of the stronger storms still looks to be frequent
lightning and strong wind gusts. By Friday, the upper level
support for the storms will be weaker, thus the chances for storms
will be confined mainly to our eastern and southern portions of
the region. In terms of temperatures, expect afternoon
temperatures to generally average about 4 to 8 degrees above
normal for most locations through the period. Brusda

Friday night through Wednesday...High pressure ridging aloft will
build over the CWA during this period and should become unusually-
strong next week Sunday through Wednesday. Simultaneously, weather
disturbances will traverse the ridge from west to east. As a result,
a few showers and thunderstorms are possible each day. This is
especially the case during the afternoon/evening hours and over/near
higher terrain. A dry environment will allow new fire starts from
lightning strikes to remain a concern. In addition, significant
evaporation of rain should yield strong wind gusts in/near any
shower or storm. Near-normal lows are expected during the period,
while daytime highs will be about 5-10 degrees above-normal for most
locations. Thus, many locales will have highs easily reach the 90`s.
Jaszka

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1015Z.
Overall mostly VFR conditions are expected until early afternoon.
Then an upper level disturbance will move northward into
Southwest MT producing a few scattered showers/thunderstorms. Some
MVFR conditions are possible in/near the storms. Expect improving
conditions after 03z Thu. Additionally, some mountains/passes
could be obscured at any time through the period by shifting smoke
plumes. Brusda

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will move northward into Southwest
MT this afternoon and possibly as far north as Central MT by this
evening. The main threat from the storms will be gusty
winds/lightning. Expect similar conditions on Thursday, expect a
better chance the storms will push northward well into the
northern portions of Central MT. Looking ahead...mostly dry and
hot conditions are still expected this weekend and into the first
half of next week. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  61  92  61 /   0   0  10  20
CTB  89  54  91  58 /   0   0  10  10
HLN  91  62  91  60 /  20  20  30  20
BZN  85  56  86  53 /  20  20  20  30
WEY  74  46  74  43 /  50  30  30  30
DLN  81  55  81  52 /  30  20  30  30
HVR  92  62  96  61 /   0   0  10  10
LWT  87  61  88  59 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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