Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 252333
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
533 PM MDT Sat Oct 25 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday...The moist southerly flow aloft has
resulted in mid/high level clouds pushing northward into the region.
Thus afternoon highs where not quite as warm as previously thought
over the western portions of the CWA. A Pacific cool front will move
through the region late tonight and into Sunday morning. Expect
strong southwest winds to develop over the Rocky Mountain Front and
in the Cut Bank area...where the high wind watch has been changed to
a high wind warning. Precip will also develop over the mountains and
in Southwest Montana. Snow levels will gradually lower tonight
through Sunday. Snow accumulations will generally fall above 6000
feet through Sunday. On Sunday night colder air will continue to
move southward into the region...and with an an upper level
disturbance moving southward out of Canada into North Central
MT...there is a good chance for precip over the Northern
Plains...especially in the Havre area. The rain will likely to
change to snow at all elevations by Monday morning. Snow
accumulations Sunday night through Monday at lower elevations will
generally be less than 1 inch...with an inch or two possible in the
mountains. Afternoon temperatures will average 4 to 8 degrees below
normal for Monday afternoon. Brusda

Monday Night through Saturday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another low pressure system through the region into Monday.
With generally westerly flow, precipitation chances appear to be
mostly limited to the West and Southwest MT mountains. The system
exits Tuesday with weak transient high pressure briefly moving over
the region. A generally unsettled westerly flow develops Wednesday
and several disturbances embedded in the flow will pass over Montana
Wednesday. High pressure begins to build over the region Thursday as
a low pressure system off the west coast deepens. Warm southwesterly
flow returns to the region by the end of the week. Temperatures
remain cool into Tuesday before warming into the 60s later in the
week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the plains
remain fairly low throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2333Z.
VFR conditions are generally expected to continue across north
central, central, and southwest Montana at least through the day on
Sunday, unless otherwise mentioned. An upper level trough of low
pressure will affect the area through the period. Thick high
cloudiness ahead of the trough will move east out of the area
through 04Z, but mid level cloudiness will move into the area
between 04Z and 12Z from the west as the trough approaches. Weak
disturbances will bring occasional showers to the mountain areas
after 06Z, which will obscure mountains at times and may bring brief
periods of MVFR ceilings to the southwest Montana (KHLN KBZN)
terminals. Southwest winds will also increase across the area as the
flow aloft increases, especially after 15Z, which will likely keep
showers from reaching the ground over the plains. Most areas will
have gusts of 25 to 35 kt after 17Z, but gusts in excess of 45 kt
are expected as soon as 09Z along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Coulston

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  44  51  32  46 /  10  10  40  30
CTB  41  50  29  45 /  10  20  60  30
HLN  43  55  34  49 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  37  52  27  46 /  20  50  20  20
WEY  28  40  19  37 /  30  60  50  30
DLN  39  49  28  45 /  20  40  20  20
HVR  39  57  32  46 /  10  10  70  60
LWT  43  55  33  44 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WARNING from Midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Sunday
Eastern Glacier.

HIGH WIND WARNING from 6 PM this evening to Midnight MDT Sunday
Night Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain
Front.

&&

$$

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