Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 260104
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2014


.UPDATE...Early update to increase light snow amounts near Bozeman
as we`ve received reports of an inch or two in/near town.  Latest
short-term models still showing that the snow there will begin to
taper off later this evening as the main snow area begins to lift
northward into central MT.
Waranauskas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Thanksgiving...Current forecast is pretty much on
track. A band of lift and a very moist airmass extending from
northwest to southwest and southcentral Montana Tuesday afternoon
was producing snow but a mix of rain and snow for some of the
lower valleys of southwest Montana. This band will shift to the
northeast and reach northcentral Montana by Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile an upper ridge off the west coast will shift east and
reach western Montana on Thanksgiving. This ridge will result in a
decrease in precipitation over southwest Montana by late tonight
or Wednesday morning and over northcentral Montana Wednesday
night. Also associated with the ridge a warm front will spread
slowly north. The warm front will move through southwest Montana
Wednesday and eventually reach northcentral Montana Thanksgiving.
The main changes to the previous forecast were to lower snow
totals for the lower elevations by up to 3 inches and add a
mention of freezing rain over the plains Wednesday night. That
will be tricky as the conditions that will be favorable for
freezing precipitation will move into areas that could be ending
their precipitation. Feel there is enough of a threat of a little
freezing precipitation to mention in the forecast. Finally even
with the lowering of snow totals plan to keep the current winter
weather highlights as is. Blank

Thursday night through Tuesday...Model guidance remains on track
with multiple models coming to a general consensus for the weather
pattern through this weekend. Temperatures are expected to be near
seasonal values for Thursday night ahead of the next winter weather
system that looks to move into the area during the afternoon and
evening hours Friday. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the cold
front with wide spread snow and reinforcing cold air. This will keep
temperatures dropping near or below 0 by Saturday Morning for most
of Central and North Central Montana...and into the teens to
possibly 20 below zero in some north central and central Montana
locations Sunday morning. Some temperatures will rebound slightly
Sunday, however most locations will only climb into the single
digits and teens across much of Central and North Central Montana.
Southwest Montana should be protected by most of the cold air
intrusion by the mountains, however widespread snow will likely
affect the area by Saturday as well. Some warming will occur Monday
under an induced ridge ahead of the next system that looks to affect
the area by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Suk

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
Light to moderate snow will continue at KBZN and KHLN through
Wednesday night with IFR conditions and occasional LIFR cigs/vis in
heavier snow. Snow will spread farther north to KGTF and KLWT
between 02z and 04z, then KCTB around 04z and KHVR by 06z. Once snow
begins, conditions will deteriorate to IFR with possible LIFR
conditions. By Wednesday morning, conditions will improve at KBZN
and KHLN as snow changes back to rain before ending by midday.
Across central and north-central Montana, low cigs/vis in snow will
persist through Wednesday afternoon before improving from southwest
to northeast Wednesday evening. Mountains will be obscured through
the period. MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  24  33  27  51 / 100 100  30  10
CTB  23  30  23  45 /  90 100  40  20
HLN  29  39  32  49 / 100  50  20  10
BZN  25  40  28  46 / 100  40  10  10
WEY  26  34  27  36 /  90  40  30  20
DLN  33  42  29  47 /  60  30  10  10
HVR  19  28  20  41 /  50  90  80  30
LWT  21  32  23  50 /  80 100  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST this evening
Beaverhead...Jefferson...Madison.

WINTER STORM WARNING until 11 PM MST Wednesday Broadwater...
Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...Eastern
Glacier...Fergus...Gallatin...Judith Basin...Meagher...Northern
Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 PM MST Wednesday Blaine...
Chouteau...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Hill...Liberty...
Toole.

&&

$$

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